Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Truist Championship preview and best bets

• Rory McIlroy returns to action at Quail Hollow
• Masters champion is a four-time course winner
• Final event before next week's major championship

Golf betting tips: Truist Championship

4pts win Xander Schauffele at 12/1 (General)

1.5pts e.w. Viktor Hovland at 40/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

1pt e.w. Ryan Gerard at 70/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

1pt e.w. Corey Conners at 80/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

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After the latest of its regular breaks to host a major championship or Presidents Cup, Quail Hollow is back to the day job and whether you love it, loathe it or land somewhere in between, this really is the embodiment of championship golf on the PGA Tour. Long and lush with thick rough and slick greens, water here and there, a driveable par four and a closing stretch with its own moniker, every single box is ticked.

The result is a tee-to-green test where length definitely helps, more so than when the Truist Championship went to Philadelphia Cricket Club last year, and it makes perfect sense that Rory McIlroy loves it so much. This is where he was welcomed to the big-time back in 2010 and has won three times since. There's no place he's more comfortable and as we saw at Augusta, once he's comfortable, he can be deadly.

Other recent winners of this tournament here include Wyndham Clark, who beat Xander Schauffele in a head-to-head, Max Homa, and Jason Day. But with McIlroy so dominant and the tournament having been held elsewhere three times in the last eight years, there are just as many clues to be found on last year's PGA Championship leaderboard, where Scottie Scheffler ultimately ran out a comfortable winner.

Despite that, Scheffler is absent as he generally prefers not to play the week before a major. It will be interesting to see how that decision plays out when he defends his title because while Doral last week was no bad way to prepare, Aronimink has more in common with Quail Hollow. The late-spring schedule is therefore ideal for McIlroy, who has played just 10 competitive rounds since the beginning of March but certainly didn't lack for sharpness at the Masters.

There is still a risk he lacks something mentally. Maybe it'll be different now that he's back in the major-winning groove, but following his first Masters win there was a clear lapse and it took until summer and another Open at Portrush for him to look sharp again. A fifth Quail Hollow win won't be high on his list of priorities so with his exceptional course record keeping a lid on the price, McIlroy is easy enough to oppose this time.

Cameron Young isn't and having gone to college here in North Carolina he'd presumably love to win this title to underline his status as one of the top-five players in the world. Some may argue that winning two in a row prior to a major would leave him thinking he's peaked too soon, but that's not the mindset of an elite athlete and nor should it be. A bigger worry would be his modest course record, though that didn't stop him at Sawgrass and he's a different animal now.

If those two are in any way vulnerable then I won't be alone in feeling this is a fine chance for XANDER SCHAUFFELE to take advantage, and having been on at 16/1 for the Masters, 12/1 here is perfectly palatable.

Remember, the players above Schauffele in the market there were Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau and McIlroy, so with three of them absent from this smaller, weaker field along with several more viable contenders, you'd have to feel Schauffele had either performed poorly since or is much less suited to this golf course.

Neither is true. He was ninth at Augusta but ranked first in strokes-gained ball-striking, leading the field by some distance only for his short-game to rate the worst among the entire top 20, and then finished 12th at Harbour Town under very similar circumstances. There, at a course where he has a solid but unspectacular record, Schauffele was the second-best driver and inside the top five for ball-striking.

Quail Hollow is a better course for him and we've seen it in every visit post-Covid, having struggled back in 2017 and 2018 when far from the player he is today. Four more recent starts show form figures of 14-2-2-28, the latter when defending a major championship for the first time, and the two runner-up finishes saw him produce world-class tee-to-green numbers.

Schauffele was left for dead by McIlroy in the first of them and then lost out to Clark in 2024, but this was just before he became a two-time major champion, back when he had a reputation for coming up short too often. That reputation left him in 2024 and after some injury troubles throughout a tricky follow-up year, he was a dominant winner of a small PGA Tour event in Japan when next finding himself in the mix.

This year he's overcome a slow start after a very long break to rattle off six good performances on the spin and it looks a matter of whether we can see putting improvement, and a bit better short-game work in general. On that score it has to be a positive that his around-the-green numbers here are up with the best he's produced anywhere, and he's not lost strokes putting at Quail Hollow since 2018.

Hopefully, Schauffele finds that jolt of improvement for a return to a course where he's done everything but win. If so, he looks as likely as anyone bar a razor-sharp version of McIlroy and with there being at least a chance the favourite is anything but that, Schauffele looks the one to be on.

We've had three reasonably big-priced Signature Event winners this year but the first of them was Collin Morikawa and more recently, world-class golfers from near the front of the betting have resumed normal service. It's why a lot of golf bettors don't like the model as the unpredictability which attracted so many of us to this game has been dramatically reduced by small fields, fewer cuts, and big prize funds.

That's why I steered clear of the outright market last week but in this one I do feel a number of the big names have questions to answer, including the bang in-form Ludvig Aberg given his failure to make the cut in last year's PGA. With four top-fives in his last five starts he looks every inch a winner in waiting, and in fairness he was out of sorts ahead of his course debut, but 14/1 leaves no margin for error.

By contrast the 40/1 offered about maverick tinkerman VIKTOR HOVLAND is big enough to merit a bet.

Hovland actually sounded quite bullish by his standards when speaking with Norwegian media last week, explaining in typically complex terms how much better he felt his ball-striking was for most of the RBC Heritage. He'd started well there only to fade, that after a flying finish to the Masters, and there's no denying he's not been able to put it all together for 72 holes so far this year.

We saw something similar when he closed with a round of 66 at Doral on Sunday having never been in the tournament, but I'm happy taking the chance that he can build on some more promising stuff now coming to a course we know he likes.

Hovland was third on debut when hitting the ball really well, returned two years later to rank first in strokes-gained off-the-tee, and in two subsequent starts has been very good in pure ball-striking terms. Note that when 24th two years ago he hadn't played since missing the cut at Augusta and had managed a best of 19th all year, while 28th in the PGA followed 54th in the Truist as his game cooled once more.

Almost a year on, there's been a little more substance without that end product, with finishes such as 10th in Phoenix and 13th in both The Players and the Arnold Palmer preceding one of his best Masters performances to date, 18th place again the product of quality iron play in particular.

I don't think Harbour Town is a great fit and he was making his debut at Doral last week, so this is probably the best course he's played in terms of how it stacks up with his game, how comfortable he feels, since March.

It's not just that Hovland has solid form here, it's that his performances at Bay Hill (second), Muirfield Village (first) and Riviera (fourth) correlate really nicely, his contending effort in the 2023 PGA Championship likewise, and I do generally like siding with him when we've thick rough rather than shaved run-offs around the green as it reduces the skill gap versus the very best scramblers.

All those factors are in play here and it's just the second time he'll have played a PGA Tour event absent of Scheffler this season, so while aware of the risk he's still not ready to win, it's one I'm very happy taking this time.

Sam Burns' improved iron play keeps him on the radar as he's come good again lately, which is often the case in spring, while the fact that Hideki Matsuyama has now had four goes at Doral without ever being competitive is of note. Prior to last week he'd been 12th when a 33/1 shot for the Masters and we can have the same price albeit to fewer places at a course where he looked like winning a major in 2017.

Matsuyama though has really struggled with his driver lately and the improved form he showed with that club in Texas prior to Augusta looks increasingly like a false dawn, so I'll side with COREY CONNERS at more than twice the price.

We know what we're getting with Conners and that's not winning pedigree at this level. Time and again he's fallen just short, his two PGA Tour wins so far having both come in the Texas Open, tucked away in the shadow of the Masters and a place he seemingly finds comfortable.

However, at prices such as these I'm happy taking on board the risk of a weak finish at a course he enjoys, having been eighth, 13th and 19th on his last three visits, latterly in a major championship. Clearly, a poor Presidents Cup performance here hasn't left any lasting damage.

Now, when I tell you how well he's hit it you might suggest this is normal given he's a quality ball-striker who can struggle with the putter, but even that falls short of doing justice to the numbers he's produced here. In each of his four recent visits (therefore excluding 2015 and 2018), he's ranked inside the top 20 in strokes-gained off-the-tee and his iron play averages a whopping 1.37 strokes-gained per round.

These are really impressive numbers even by his lofty standards and it didn't matter that he came here two years ago without a top-10 finish all season, nor that he'd gone MC-31 in 2023 following his second Texas win. Even back in 2018, when again without a top-10 finish anywhere as he found a path in the game, Conners was able to rock up here and rank second in strokes-gained approach with what were his career-best figures at the time.

It's just a great course for someone with his long-game and while below his best at times this year, he was 14th in the Valspar when taking a rare drop in grade, and had been 13th at Sawgrass before that. More recently, he closed with a round of 67 at Doral where it was pleasing to see the putter behave and his poor driving numbers on Sunday reflect the fact that he failed to carry the water on 16 by about a yard. He hit a lot of fairways and that may well be of greater value here.

Again, Quail Hollow is a better fit and while his compatriot Taylor Pendrith has even more impressive course form, Conners looks to be coming nicely to the boil at the right time. With good form at Bay Hill and a course profile that ties in nicely with Hovland in actual fact, he can threaten the places at the very least.

Ryan Fox is another at a price who could feature while this is theoretically an excellent chance for course winner Rickie Fowler to lock up some major invites. He'll be in the PGA next week but hasn't yet qualified for the US Open or the Open, and from 52nd in the world could just about seal the deal with a big performance back where he won his first PGA Tour title.

Fowler, like Adam Scott, is still on offer at 100/1 for the PGA Championship for anyone bullish about his short-term prospects, but while this is undeniably easier, I can't see great value in 33/1 about either of them. It's hard to find in these Signature Events and I won't be alone in hoping that speculation about their future involving an expansion to 120 players and the return of cuts is bang on the money, though it's not just fields and things on the PGA Tour side which is squeezing juice from markets.

I will set aside that grumbling for a final bet in the shape of RYAN GERARD.

Gerard was born a couple of hours away in Raleigh, North Carolina so this is a home game and it's one he made the most of last May, when eighth in the PGA Championship despite a modest preparation.

"You know, I feel very comfortable here," he said following an excellent first round. "There's a lot of people here that I know and I've been fortunate enough to play this golf course a few times. And all of that is fantastic, and it's definitely helped in the preparation.

"But overall I just feel really comfortable. I love being here. It's a fantastic place. North Carolina in general, they show out for their guys in light blue. I heard so many "Go Heels" today and just appreciate everyone that's supporting."

Significantly, Gerard managed this while putting badly at a time when he was still a PGA Tour maiden, largely because of that club. Fast-forward a year and he's won for the first time, almost done so on the DP World Tour as well, and then returned to this one and finished second twice more to begin 2026, his putting much improved.

Things have been quieter since but he played very well for three rounds of his Masters debut, then shot 65-67 (six better than the winner, bettered only by Scheffler) over the weekend of the RBC Heritage before making the cut alongside Sudarshan Yellamaraju in New Orleans. Last week saw Gerard add 30th at Doral, where he putted well, and all aspects of his game bar his chipping are in really good shape.

Whereas that one weakness was always likely to catch him out at some stage in the Masters, here it's less of a worry and we've had several champions, McIlroy, Clark and Homa among them, who were about average for the week. Gerard is capable of that and, back close to home while others allow their minds to wander to next week's major, he could be ready to take the next step up in his career.

Alex Smalley also has local ties and arrives threatening a breakthrough, but emulating Jacob Bridgeman by crossing the line for the first time at this level is a tall order, even if one or two of the big names are either absent or poorly prepared. Gerard though has already proved capable of competing at the highest level and there are reasons to be optimistic at north of 50/1.

Posted at 09:00 BST on 05/05/26

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