Ben Coley's golf betting tips: The Memorial Tournament preview and best bets

• Scheffler bids for course hat-trick and first win since January
• Rory McIlroy among those returning to action post-PGA
• Jack Nicklaus hosts at tough Muirfield Village course

Golf betting tips: The Memorial Tournament

2pts e.w. Tommy Fleetwood (without Scheffler) at 25/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

2pts e.w. Justin Thomas at 33/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Jordan Spieth at 45/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Sepp Straka at 55/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Nick Taylor at 80/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook | Free bets

Three weeks after the PGA Championship and a fortnight prior to the US Open, the penultimate Signature Event of the PGA Tour season is one of those which sits perfectly in the schedule. Since Aaron Rai won at Aronimink we've dropped down the gears and, after a great but somewhat low-key week at Colonial followed a forgettable Byron Nelson, we're back up them now as Jack Nicklaus welcomes a small field to Muirfield Village for the Memorial Tournament.

The course, designed by Nicklaus, is a mid-length, classical, parkland layout which used to reward longer hitters more than shorter ones but has perhaps moved back in the other direction following the latest round of tweaks, and more significant ones at that, were made during the Covid era. Subsequently there's been a strong correlation between hitting fairways and gaining strokes off the tee, but one way or another it's always felt like a course which demands good driving.

From there, we often hear that the second shot is key to any Nicklaus course and the best player the sport has in that department, Scottie Scheffler, comes here bidding for a hat-trick. Truth be told he should already have one, as in 2023 he lost by a shot to Viktor Hovland having been 14 shots (yes, 14) worse on the greens. Better since, he held on under tough conditions a year later and then dominated last summer, the most dominant of his career to date.

Scheffler's skills around the green also help here in Ohio and as we creep closer to these fast, undulating greens surrounded by thick rough and typically with pins tucked away, the message is that Muirfield Village is a demanding test through the bag. While that thick rough does cost us a degree of variety and the type of recovery shot which can be so memorable, it helps serve up a largely suitable test for the best players on the PGA Tour. Winning here is hard and seven of the last eight have gone to players prominent in the betting.

That hasn't always been the case in Signature Events this year. Remember, Collin Morikawa was a big price at Pebble Beach, Jacob Bridgeman likewise a week later, and neither Akshay Bhatia nor even Cameron Young were close to the favourites at Bay Hill and Sawgrass respectively. Matt Fitzpatrick back at a course he adores and Young again at Doral were winners for the top of the market, but then along came Kristoffer Reitan with a storming finish to the Truist Championship.

With Rai subsequently landing the PGA Championship, it's been a strange year at the very highest level, made stranger still by the fact Scheffler is now four months and change since he last lifted a trophy. With his long-game back firing and this course far better at accentuating his advantage than Craig Ranch last time, the favourite has an outstanding chance and seems about the right price at 11/4 to 3/1.

The player I like most against or better still without him is TOMMY FLEETWOOD, who seems to be getting to grips with a course which really ought to suit.

Fleetwood struggled here initially but those first two visits were in 2015 and 2017 and can be completely disregarded given what he's achieved since. Returning in 2024 he started well and sticked around for 20th, while last year he was never in the tournament but nor was he ever far away in 16th.

Truth be told his ball-striking was good even back in those first two appearances and having been eighth in strokes-gained approach last year, it was his putter which again made the difference. In both recent visits he's been well above average and that's heartening given that it was the club that let him down in the PGA Championship last time.

Just as in 2024, Fleetwood comes here with his putting stats for the year the slimmest fraction below average and returning to fast, undulating greens he's found strange comfort on seems a potential positive along with the increasing emphasis on accuracy off the tee, one of the understated qualities of his game. He's 22nd in total driving so far this year and ninth in fairways.

Fleetwood's driving performance in the PGA was his best of the year and while his irons were off at a dramatically penal course, he's produced four top-10 approach play performances this year and three of them came on the back of missteps.

Fleetwood has always been good at bouncing back and that applies to his overall form, too. Over the last couple of years he's been second in the Olympic Games after a missed cut in the Open, second in the Canadian Open after a missed cut at Colonial, and second in the Travelers after a missed cut in the US Open – three of the closest calls of his career prior to earning that first PGA Tour victory at East Lake.

This year he followed a poor start in Dubai with two Signature Event top-10s, then found two more top-10s after a disappointing Arnold Palmer, so missing the cut in the PGA simply isn't a concern. It was a blip and he'll bounce back, whether this week or perhaps on his return to Shinnecock, where he was so close to stealing the US Open back in 2017.

For now, four top-10s in seven Signature Event starts so far this year including in the most recent one two starts ago represents some of the best non-Scheffler form around, and he's just slipped down the market a fraction. I think the course suits him more than several of those quoted at short prices and if he holes his share, expect Fleetwood to be close to the lead throughout.

The same could be said of Patrick Cantlay but he's halved in price for finishing 35th in the PGA, whereas Fleetwood's price is if anything slightly bigger. As one of the best in the world around the green and among the most accurate of the world's best 20 players, this feels like a great opportunity to kickstart a good but unspectacular season so far.

There are plenty of ways to side with him, but at the time of writing the three Flutter firms go 25/1 without Scheffler and that would be my clear preference.

Justin time again

Hideki Matsuyama is always of interest at 40/1 at a course where he's a past champion but I can't get past concerns over his driver whereas that club has started to look good for JUSTIN THOMAS, which makes him a big danger anywhere.

Here at Muirfield Village, where he really ought to have won a one-off event during the summer of 2020, where his approach play and work around the green makes for an appealing fit, I just have to row in again after his promising but frustrating 13th at Colonial.

On his first start there for some years, Thomas ranked second to the winner in strokes-gained tee-to-green but couldn't buy a putt, which hadn't been the case in his prior two starts. He'd been 13th at Quail Hollow at the Truist, his putting improved, and followed that with a storming finish to the PGA where again a new putter in the bag reaped rewards.

We'll have to see if last week was a blip or a return to his putting problems but the rest of his game looks great, particularly off the tee which hasn't always been the case. Colonial, where he ranked fourth in strokes-gained off-the-tee, was the second time in four that he'd produced excellent driving numbers based around a high degree of accuracy, and he should be bouncing into summer now.

To my eye he's in effect completed his comeback from injury, proving his wellbeing and competing at a very high level, and as a Nicklaus winner twice before with three top-10s at this course and plenty of other signs of promise, I simply have to give him the benefit of the doubt and hope he doesn't repeat last year's Thursday shocker from which he responded admirably.

I had been keen on JJ Spaun, the US Open champion whose tee-to-green game is in extremely good health with that title defence fast approaching. His record here is poor but the same had been true at Colonial, where he now has back-to-back top-10s, and last week's near-miss of sorts sets him up well. The issue is he's been trimmed to a similar price and this looks a good deal harder despite a smaller field.

Preference is for JORDAN SPIETH, who I maintain is very close to putting four rounds together.

Spieth hasn't done that so far this year and there are two good encapsulations of the frustration his followers have suffered. One is that both his best two tee-to-green performances met with his worst two putting performances, a fact made worse by these happening in the two majors. The other is his effort in the Nelson, where a dazzling 62 was followed by a 73, and his Sunday 66 featured a needless double-bogey.

All of which might seem reason enough to swerve him but nine top-20s in 14 appearances at a course with greens somewhat similar to Augusta, where the approach shot and a sharp short-game are vital, and where he's often driven it well, make this a good week to chance him versus the Nelson, where he felt a fraction short.

Spieth went off about the same price as Si Woo Kim there and is now more than double the odds of the Korean, and I feel we're getting a nice price about a player who said last time out that he feels better than he has since 2017, the year he last won a major. Whether he can reach those heights again has to be in doubt but I don't think he's done winning, not for a second, and believe he'll threaten to do that soon enough.

Here at Muirfield Village, he was seventh last year despite describing his confidence as '7 out of 10', fifth in 2023 on the back of a missed cut at Colonial, and sits seventh for adjusted scoring over a five-year period. There will be moments of alarm but to my eye he's up to going very close and we can't often take 50s, not even in major championships that are harder to win than this should be.

Next on the list is SEPP STRAKA, despite a slight concern over the fact he has to fly in from Austria where he played nicely without ever quite threatening to win his national open last week.

Otherwise the case is very strong as he's a supremely accurate driver and fabulous iron player who has been fifth and third across the last two renewals. Last year came after a slow start following a missed cut at the PGA, while he was second through 54 holes in 2024 having again taken time to grow into the tournament.

What's particularly encouraging about his form across seven starts in total is Straka's putting on these rapid, undulating greens. He averages a massive 0.77 strokes-gained per round with that club versus a career baseline of -0.01 and over 26 rounds, that feels like decent evidence rather than randomness. He's only once lost strokes for a tournament and even then, by the most slender of margins.

Having been 14th on his first start at the course when nowhere near the player he is now and 16th in 2023, he has a really solid book of form now, more recently based around excellent driving numbers. Straka has benefited from the increased emphasis on accuracy and over the last three years, a grand total of three players have outperformed him in fairways hit, all of them in 2023. Since then his driving accuracy rankings read 1-1.

Fourth at a far less suitable course in the Cadillac Championship at the beginning of last month, eighth at Sawgrass and second at Pebble Beach, Straka continues to pop up in the biggest events on the PGA Tour and this might be the most suitable of them all.

Straka is a Nicklaus winner at PGA National and it wouldn't surprise me at all were he to repeat that in this smaller but deeper field.

Taylor made for Canadian

Ryan Gerard made my shortlist after an eye-catching debut here and he's got strong Nicklaus form elsewhere, but he does struggle badly around the green and that's a potential issue. It didn't stop Hovland three years ago and Gerard is an accurate driver who hits quality approaches and whose putter came to life last week, but every missed green is a potential card-ruiner so I'll let him go.

Nico Echavarria was of some interest at monster prices and could play well, but my final selection is NICK TAYLOR.

The Canadian is dynamite around the green and when the putter fires there aren't many better short-games on the PGA Tour, where he's also consistently among the top 20% in the driving accuracy statistics.

That combined with his strong approach play makes for a likeable combination and he finally showed it last year, leading at halfway and staying the course to finish fourth. Prior to that it'd been promise without end product and it's now four times in his last six starts that the Canadian has been inside the top 10 heading into Friday here.

Perhaps the first-round leader market is worth a look with that in mind but this is a multiple winner who has stared down some top-class players along the way, and he's been performing a bit better than his results suggest lately.

Fifth through 54 holes at the Cadillac (ninth), close all week at Quail Hollow (14th) and then second entering the final round of the PGA before fading to 26th, Taylor should arrive here ready to see it through as he did 12 months ago and is a nice price to do just that.

Posted at 20:00 BST on 01/06/26

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