Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Soudal Open preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Soudal Open

2pts e.w. Victor Perez at 28/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Nathan Kimsey at 40/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1.5pts e.w. Matthew Jordan at 40/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Sam Bairstow at 66/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Frederic Lacroix at 66/1 (Betfred, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

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The DP World Tour made a remarkable return to Europe two weeks ago when Yurav Premlall stormed to a 14-shot victory in the Challenge de Catalunya. I'd go as far as to say that ranks as the single most astonishing performance in memory, if you take the odds of the winner (500/1-plus) and the gap between him and the runner-up.

Now, after Europe dominated the PGA Championship in Pennsylvania, we're back to a more familiar tournament in the Soudal Open. Whereas El Prat was back on the schedule after more than a decade away, Rinkven International hosts for the seventh time since 2018's experimental Belgian Knockout, the last four all traditional tournaments.

Traditional tournaments, at least in terms of holes played, is what LIV Golf has now become and two of its players are right towards the top of the betting, headed by home hope Thomas Detry. He's thrived since making the switch, currently lying fourth in the season-long standings, and is supported by Josele Ballester who ranks a lofty eighth and is among the most promising young players in world golf.

Detry has double the reason to go again despite missing the cut at Aronimink and then coming up short in a play-off for a US Open spot at Walton Heath, as not only would victory be his first on home soil, it would go a long way towards getting him to Shinnecock anyway with another world rankings cut-off to come. Having contended here on his last visit in 2023 and since won on the PGA Tour, he's firmly the man to beat.

As for the course, Rinkven is tight, tree-lined and traditional, generally favouring precision over power but ultimately somewhere driver tends not to be decisive. Last year's top three all ranked inside the top 10 in strokes-gained off-the-tee, but the previous champions were 43rd, 38th and 51st, with other parts of the game all more important around a par 71 which doesn't quite stretch to 7,000 yards.

There are courses which would accentuate the advantage of Ballester and Detry and several of them have been in use on the LIV Golf circuit so far this year. Rinkven isn't one of them and with Ballester having been involved in US Open qualifying in Texas on Monday, this feels like the wrong place at the wrong time. Detry on the other hand should play well, as he did on his last visit, and if you fancy Scottie Scheffler on the PGA Tour, surely a favourites' double must carry some appeal at 33/1 or so.

Fellow LIV player VICTOR PEREZ also has a touch of class too and he's overpriced at 25/1 and bigger.

Perez is a good way behind Detry in the LIV Golf standings but he's performed solidly and seems to be improving as the season progressed, with finishes of 12th, 17th and 11th across his last few starts much more like it.

He was the first-round leader in Mexico during that tumultuous week of breaking news, then started well again in Virginia before weekend rounds of 66 and 68 earned him his best finish to date.

Crucially, his approach play has been getting better with every start lately and he's hitting fairways and greens, while his occasionally troublesome short-game has been solid enough to gain strokes in four of his last five starts.

The Frenchman played well over the border in Belgium when this was the Belgian Knockout back in 2018 and on his last visit, four years ago, 33rd place was perfectly solid given that he'd made a slow start to the season. He went and won over in the Netherlands on his very next start and being back in this part of continental Europe can be no bad thing.

Perez has some strong correlating form courtesy of 18th in Kenya and fourth at Le Golf National, both courses where driver is far from the most important club in the bag, and if you go back almost a decade he played well on both starts at Geneve on the HotelPlanner Tour. As I wrote when selecting Nacho Elvira here two years ago, correlations with that course are especially strong.

There wasn't much wrong with his effort at US Open qualifying on Monday – in fact, he finished 24th, the same place Reitan had filled before his victory here – and as a player who bagged eight top-25s on the PGA Tour last year, including 19th in the US Open, he is a quality operator who should be considered a big threat at this level.

Given that several of his rivals have to recover from a tough week at Aronimink or fly in from a US Open qualifier in Dallas, he has plenty in his favour.

My view on Monday's US Open qualifier over in the UK is that we shouldn't read too much into it. Nacho Elvira had been 51st before winning this at the expense of Romain Langasque, who had withdrawn, and Niklas Moller, who was nowhere close to qualifying. Reitan wasn't, either, but good play is never a bad thing either.

Ultimately I'd have been siding with NATHAN KIMSEY and MATTHEW JORDAN regardless, so the fact they finished first and third is seen as the icing on the cake.

Starting with Kimsey, he looks an excellent fit for the course on paper. His favourite course on the circuit is Le Golf National, he was fifth in Kenya earlier this year and boasts a strong record at DLF, all of which rate among the very best guides to Rinkven through names like Jens Dantorp, Yannik Paul and Simon Forsstrom, rather than elite golfers who can pop up anywhere.

It makes sense statistically, too, as he's a highly accurate driver (fifth this season) who hits a lot of greens (also fifth; 39th in strokes-gained approach) and is excellent around them, leaving us to wonder whether the putter will do what we need it to.

Four times this year Kimsey has been better than the field average on the greens and on each occasion he's finished in the top 10, testament to how well he has been striking the ball. His game today is worlds apart from the equivalent week last year, when he came here still on the comeback trail and missed the cut by a single shot.

Returning for another try and surely having holed his share at Walton Heath, it's to be hoped that he can avoid the putting shocker that saw him miss the cut in Spain last time, prior to which he'd been sixth in China and 29th despite a slow start and more putting issues in Turkey.

Kimsey is one of the best maidens on the circuit these days and so remains Jordan, both of them hopefully inspired by watching Aaron Rai become the first English winner of the PGA Championship in more than a century.

Jordan hasn't quite been at the level which saw him finish runner up in the Nedbank in 2024 but made the DP World Tour Championship again last year and, following a slow start to this one, has now made six cuts in a row.

Four of these have come courtesy of excellent tee-to-green displays and as if to underline how close he appears to be, across his last three starts since returning from a break he's at various points ranked inside the top 10 off the tee, with his approaches, around the green, and with the putter.

That he's not put them all together is somewhat typical of a frustrating player in some ways, but his ball-striking was exceptional in Turkey last time and to build on that with rounds of 69 and 64 on Monday has to be considered encouraging.

Excellent around the green and with back-to-back top-10s in Kenya, fourth at Crans, sixth at Le Golf National and three good performances in as many visits to DLF to his name, he really is an ideal type for a course where he's been 15th, fifth and ninth so far.

Two of these came after successive missed cuts whereas this time he's been slowly building confidence and while there's something unsettlingly simple about the case here, Jordan looks about as solid an each-way bet as you'll find at the odds.

SAM BAIRSTOW carries more risk but he's one I've had in mind for several weeks now.

The left-hander has made eight cuts in nine this year without bettering 29th place so it's been a little humdrum to put it politely, but he's really started to strike the ball well lately, ranking eighth, third and fourth for greens hit in his last three, and inside the top 20 in fairways each time.

The worry with Bairstow is that he can struggle around the green but I'd be far less concerned about a couple of poor putting weeks, as that club is traditionally a strength. And as far as the scrambling side goes, if he does continue to rank towards the top of those GIR charts, we won't have to worry about it too much.

Bairstow was mid-pack at Walton Heath but that's fine with me and he can improve now returning to Rinkven, where he's been 10th and 16th in two visits, with rounds of 63, 65 and 66 showing what he can do. Those results don't tell the full story either, as he'd been 136th and 93rd after round one and only scraped through to the weekend each time.

Second at Le Golf National is a nice form line to further emphasise that this fits and so it should, as his home course in Sheffield is somewhat similar and he's since relocated to the southeast of England, where this style is prevalent. He looks to me to be the sort of quality shot-maker who is very comfortable among the trees and his HotelPlanner Tour win came on a parkland course in Scotland.

Bairstow has endured a tough 12 months since he was 16th here, a rules controversy last August surely setting him back as well, but things are definitely looking up again. He was second at halfway in Turkey recently, again on a tree-lined course, and I am excited about the prospect of a return to Rinkven helping him to see it through to Sunday.

Back up the betting, Eugenio Chacarra continues to threaten and with his strong form at DLF plus a good effort in Kenya in mind, there's a case to be made for the Spaniard. He was 31st here last year but started slowly having flown in from the PGA Championship, although I do worry about a repeat given that he was involved in qualifying in Texas along with Ballester.

There's a fair case for Andrew Johnston though I'm dubious as to whether he's quite ready to win again a decade on from his Valderrama heroics and I'd expect Davis Bryant to do much better on his second try here, but rounds of 76-77 a year ago combined with a modest effort on Monday make him a little hard to fancy.

Similarly, Matteo Manassero was shocking at Walton Heath, a course he likes, so while keen not to dwell on two rounds of golf under unique circumstances, eight bogeys and a double in 36 holes clearly isn't a good way to prepare. He's got the game for this but on recent evidence will spend too much time among the trees.

That leaves Jacob Skov Olesen and FREDERIC LACROIX completing the shortlist and of the two, Lacroix is just preferred at a bigger price.

The Frenchman has gone 33-34-23 here over the last three years but has shown even more promise than that, sitting fourth through 54 holes last year, 11th at halfway the time before, and starting strongly three years ago.

Encouragingly, he shot 65-62 to be halfway leader in Kenya back in spring and followed that with second place on a similar course in South Africa, where players like Ewen Ferguson, Adrian Otaegui, Kimsey and Joe Dean hint at similarities with Rinkven.

Lacroix hasn't been quite so good since but was back close to the lead for three rounds in Turkey last time and with his Danish Golf Championship win also coming at a largely tree-lined course where accurate, quality iron players dominated, he definitely has conditions to suit back in Belgium.

Two rounds of 68 at Walton Heath, where he was bogey-free over the final 30 holes, offer further encouragement and while he's far from the best chipper in this field, Reitan and Moller show that too can be overcome. His putter is a bigger worry but he's gained strokes on all four starts here and more of the same would make him a threat in a weak field where Detry is admittedly hard to resist.

Posted at 11:00 BST on 19/05/26

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