Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Scottish Open preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Scottish Open

1.5pts e.w. Nicolai Hojgaard at 50/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Marco Penge at 55/1 (Betfred, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Jake Knapp at 70/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Michael Brennan at 80/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)

1pt e.w. Jesper Svensson at 200/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

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We're firmly on Open Championship countdown now and there is no finer aperitif than the Scottish Open, which has been held at The Renaissance Club since 2019. It's true that the birthplace of golf has many finer courses, ones with more distinction and prestige, and that this one is in some ways the gaudy consequence of money and power, but let's give credit where it's due. Designer Tom Doak and those assisting him, including Padraig Harrington, have kept on improving a Tour-ready layout which serves its purpose well.

Three years ago we had a finish for the ages as Rory McIlroy stole it from under Robert MacIntyre's nose, then MacIntyre benefited from a huge stroke of fortune which he capitalised upon to win the thing he thought he'd won already. Last year, McIlroy looked like he'd win it back, except that Chris Gotterup had other ideas, the American imperious from the front as he fended them all off in another absorbing renewal.

While some would say this isn't links golf in the purest sense – and they would be correct – the elements are still key and Gotterup had to defy some difficult conditions on Saturday, eventually reaching 15-under just as McIlroy had done. MacIntyre managed three lower, matching Min Woo Lee's score from 2021, while foul weather in 2022 saw Xander Schauffele win in -7. Nobody has got close to Bernd Wiesberger's 22-under in 2019 and that again reflects the fact that the hosts have continued striving for more.

The weather this week looks ideal: sunny for the most part but not roasting hot, a hint of rain at times outside of tournament play, and nothing more than a stiff breeze. Perhaps some would wish for the full suite of British elements as a means of preparing for whatever Birkdale throws up, but the first requirement ought to be to get through this on schedule and that seems certain. It should be a fun, relatively low-scoring renewal of yet another historic national open on the DP World Tour.

It remains to be seen just how beneficial The Renaissance proves to be for those Claret Jug hopefuls, most of whom are here, but last year was clear cut. Gotterup went on to be third at Portrush, where MacIntyre, McIlroy and Schauffele all made the top 10 along with a couple more with good records here. Conditions didn't particularly differ from one week to the next and when that's the case, this really ought to be the place to go in advance of the major which follows it. No wonder most players opt to now that they can.

As for how they go about winning the Scottish Open, no small prize in itself, long driving has been a big advantage at this course. That too can depend on conditions, but Gotterup beat McIlroy and Marco Penge with Matt Fitzpatrick and Nicolai Hojgaard rounding out the top five. Lee beat Thomas Detry and Fitzpatrick, Schauffele beat Kurt Kitayama, McIlroy beat MacIntyre, and MacIntyre beat Adam Scott. No wonder DataGolf's Bomb-O-Meter almost hit its maximum last year.

First on my list is the aforementioned MARCO PENGE, after an excellent comeback ninth in Germany last week.

Penge admitted he didn't know what to expect on his first start since the PGA Championship and was understandably thrilled to slip right into what he does, which is drive the ball well (12th) and, key to his progress last year, dial in his approaches (ninth).

Some understandable short-game rust hurt him all week but especially so on Sunday, when he made a seven at the par-five sixth despite being greenside in a nice position in two. Penge overhit his chip which went into the hazard and all hope of getting involved in the finish quickly disappeared.

He responded well though and it was in the end a slight improvement on 11th place last year, which he followed with second place here at The Renaissance, where he ranked third in strokes-gained off-the-tee and did everything well.

Subsequently having taken his tally to three DP World Tour wins, all of them in the sort of mid-level score we'll need here, he looks to have every chance if he's fit and healthy and that seems to be the case. It's easy to forget that while yes it's been a stop-start rookie season on the PGA Tour, pre-injury things were looking up with fourth in the Valspar and 21st in the Texas Open.

Penge had played nicely at Riviera in the most bomber-friendly event during those first few months of the season and based on last week's display, he might only need to tidy up on and around the greens to be a factor. Yes, there's some risk involving his lack of match practise but don't forget, most of the favourites have had at least two weeks off and it's three in the case of both McIlroy and Jon Rahm.

Mcllroy might still be the man to beat given his sublime record around here and having got his eye in at St Enodoc last week, victory number two here (and for the season) would be no surprise. I was sweet on his chances for the US Open and he played well for big chunks of it, so at just a few points shorter there's nothing I can say to put anyone off. He's got a generally good record the week before majors, too.

Still, taking single-figure prices by the coast is seldom that appealing and my approach to this has generally been to speculate beyond the favourites, knowing that both the nature of the golf course and the timing of the tournament could expose them to something a bit more surprising, which has been a bit of a running theme on the PGA Tour this year regardless of where they've played.

That said, while we bagged some place money at 300/1 a couple of years ago, the undeniable reality is that since the Scottish Open became co-sanctioned, the gulf between tours has been underlined. Just one of last year's top 10 was without PGA Tour membership, ditto in 2024, and there have been just a handful of exceptions since 2022.

Penge of course fits the bill as a PGA Tour member and so does JAKE KNAPP, for whom a similar case can be made.

Another big-hitter who can putt, Knapp was in brilliant form at the beginning of the season and a second win appeared a formality, that is until a thumb injury which has bothered him on and off for three years became a big issue. Thereafter, the sight of his name followed by 'WD' became an almost weekly occurrence for ardent followers of the sport.

However, like Penge he recently made his return to action and while it was a rather more low-key performance in the Travelers, after a slow start Knapp showed signs of promise, particularly off the tee where he improved with every round.

"The first day there was definitely some rust, but I felt pretty comfortable," Knapp told Dan Rapaport. "Once I got this little (brace) to support the one little area I needed, I was all of a sudden able to go pretty much full at it, which was exciting."

That bodes well for a golf course where going 'full at it' from the tee could be a key separator and Knapp caught the eye on debut here, when leading after round one and lying third through 54 holes. He struggled on Sunday, fading to 22nd, but at the time was still working his way towards the levels he's since shown.

Fit and firing he'd be a big threat with conditions set fair and I'm willing to take my chances at 50/1 and bigger.

Slightly further up the betting, Kristoffer Reitan rates an obvious player, though dare I say he might not be in the best of moods on Sunday if Norway have exited the World Cup at the hands of England the night before. That aside, he's a winner on the PGA Tour who hits it miles, can hole putts with the very best of them, and like Penge has a coastal win at Alcanada for good measure.

Narrow preference is for NICOLAI HOJGAARD, a player with a similar make-up who in fact chased home Reitan in the Truist Championship.

Hojgaard had previously been runner-up on a big-hitter course in Houston, third to Renaissance champ Gotterup in Phoenix, fourth in Dubai and sixth in the exposed, often windy Cognizant Classic, and after a lull at the beginning of June was much better last time out.

At a course which doesn't really suit his game, Hojgaard got better as the tournament developed in the Travelers, closing with a sensational 62 which saw him lead the field in strokes-gained approach, and still leaving plenty to work with off the tee.

That department is where he thrived here last summer, ranking fifth on his way to a second top-six finish in three years, and his game coming in was nowhere near as strong as it appears to be this time. For perspective, he'd gained 0.23 strokes per round from January to June, but this year, on a tougher schedule, has more than doubled that figure.

With rounds of 63 and 64 at The Renaissance and breezy but not difficult conditions to suit, this looks a good chance for Hojgaard to bag his first PGA Tour win, knowing that whatever happens his status for next year is not a problem as he's a lofty 26th in the FedExCup standings.

If you are minded to throw some darts at DP World Tour members who can leapfrog the Race to Dubai pathway by winning this, then Angel Ayora, Mikael Lindberg and Freddy Schott were the trio I liked most.

Ayora disappointed last week but has Dunhill Links and Qatar form and can bounce back, Lindberg is a bomber who can putt and also has form in the Dunhill Links, while Schott's top-20 finish sets him up nicely for a suitable test.

However I'll stick to the PGA Tour raiders, a description which fits for Sweden's JESPER SVENSSON.

He arrives here in obviously good form, having followed ninth place in the Byron Nelson (won by subsequent US Open champion Wyndham Clark at the expense of Scheffler) with fourth in Canada, where the likes of Clark and US Open runner-up Sam Burns were in the mix.

Despite those performances, Svensson is only up to 113th in FedExCup points but he spent all of his rookie season hovering around the cut-off and has made it work with conditional playing rights this year, so with his DP World Tour status secure this isn't the be all and end all.

His form at the course is encouraging, with a closing 65 on debut following by a second-round 64 last year, and he really does look to have turned a corner lately. That begins off the tee, where he's been awesome over his last three starts, but his short-game has also sharpened up and so did his approach play in Canada.

Look beyond his most recent efforts and Svensson has finishes of eighth in Puerto Rico, 10th in Hawaii and 14th in Bermuda, all encouraging as regards his ability by the sea, while 16th at Portrush last year is even better given that it appears to correlate quite nicely with The Renaissance.

Also 16th and 24th from two starts at Doha, where so many Open champions and links fans go well, Svensson has a really nice profile for this and has struck form at an ideal time. Perhaps it would've been better had he played in Germany last week but at the prices I'll take my chances.

Aldrich Potgieter won the Amateur Championship at Lytham and I could see him going well along with a host of other powerhouses from the PGA Tour, but among them I'll finish with MICHAEL BRENNAN.

Last year's breakthrough winner, a victory which came at a bombers' paradise in Utah, Brennan has been held back by some putting issues since then but I'll gladly take my chances on this occasion.

We saw when sixth at Colonial just what he can do when the putter does behave and since then he's continued to hint that his turn may not be far away, driving the ball imperiously and, last week, dialling in his irons too (13th in strokes-gained approach).

Brennan really is a sensational driver of the ball, best summed up by rankings of first in the US Open, fourth in the Masters and sixth in the PGA, and we've seen him hit it really low when he wants to. That's reminiscent of Gotterup and if his putter warms up, he's capable of following the same path to victory here.

At 80/1 and bigger, he's preferred to Pierceson Coody in an event where long driving can go a long way. Hopefully that rings true come Sunday, but something a little more nuanced awaits in the main event itself.

Posted at 19:00 BST on 06/07/26

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