Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Rocket Classic preview and best bets

• Restored Detroit Golf Club hosts for final time
• Jackson Koivun and Open runner-up Cam Young among favourites
• Big-hitting has been an advantage here in past renewals

Golf betting tips: Rocket Classic

2pts e.w. Jake Knapp at 28/1 (William Hill, bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

2pts e.w. Hideki Matsuyama at 30/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

1pt e.w. Davis Thompson at 50/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Johnny Keefer at 75/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Sungjae Im at 75/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

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Watching the conclusion of the 3M Open and the birth of a new star in Jackson Koivun, it made me think about the breakthroughs of some of the best players in the game and how events like that one and this one so often provide the stage.

OK, the Rocket Classic is yet to produce a real star but it's still new and rates an exception. Jordan Spieth broke through at the John Deere, similar in many ways; Ludvig Aberg in the RSM Classic. The first tournaments won by Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas and Patrick Cantlay were all small and are all no more; the one which saw Rory McIlroy welcomed to the big time is fundamentally different 16 years down the line.

Whatever the finer details of Brian Rolapp's vision of the future, smoothing rather than merely preserving pathways has to play an important role. The best players will get to where they're going regardless, but stepping stones are a key part of the journey. Had Koivun been thrown straight into a Signature Event or confined to some lesser system away from the television cameras, we'd have missed out on something special.

Koivun now seems on a path towards a Presidents Cup debut in September but there is one potential stumbling block: he has to make the FedExCup Playoffs, surely, to be able to earn selection. It so happens that victory last week saw him climb to 70th and with precisely 70 players invited along to the first of three tournaments to end the season, were Koivun to miss out narrowly then it would take a leap of faith to pick him.

Perhaps he'll simply win again this week and on that score, the fact that Detroit GC has been restored since last summer could work in his favour. This classical Donald Ross course, vulnerable to the powerhouse play of champion Aldrich Potgieter, has been toughened up with work to both bunkers and greens and plenty of tree removal. Scoring-wise, two par-fives have been reduced to play as long par-fours and on the face of it, Tyler Rae's work looks exceptional.

It would be a shame in some ways were Detroit to be as good as it looks and for us then to wave goodbye, but as with the 3M Open, if this is the end (in this case, it definitely is) then it's a good one. Koivun has to settle for fourth or fifth place in the market behind the Open runner-up, Cameron Young, a two-time major champion in Xander Schauffele, and three-time 2026 winner, Chris Gotterup. That in itself is a sign of the regard in which he's held and also of the quality of the field.

Young is the right favourite and I doubt his good course form is going to be made irrelevant. To my eye, Detroit is no less likely to suit players of his skill set and it's notable that he was second here after he'd been second in the Open four years ago. However, having the Claret Jug ripped out of your hands while you're on the practice ground is about as tough as it gets and there has to be a chance that he takes a while to recover.

We'll stick with JAKE KNAPP, who stormed home in the 3M Open having given himself far too much to do.

One of the very best players on the PGA Tour through the first three months of the season, during which he finished 11th or better seven times in eight starts, Knapp's campaign was interrupted by a thumb injury from which it took longer than expected to recover.

But that recovery is gathering pace now, Sunday's 62 his best round since he shot 61 here en route to fourth place last summer. As is the case a year later, that followed an encouraging return to form on his previous start, where his low round came on the Thursday, and during the previous season his win followed similar preparation.

That was in Mexico, at a course made for big hitters where Potgieter ought to have succeeded him, so no wonder Detroit has proved to be so suitable. As well as finishing fourth behind the powerhouse South African, Knapp was 31st the previous summer when struggling for form, and across these two renewals nobody has driven the ball better than he has.

We're banking on the changes having limited impact but I see no reason to abandon Knapp regardless, whose strength since returning has in fact been his approach play. He averages 1.67 strokes-gained per round so far in July and a run of MC-MC-13 represents the very minimum possible return for having set up so many chances.

Nobody in the 3M Open field was better on Sunday and the putter came to the party too, so everything seems in place for him to kick on and contend at a similar price. On that, yes the field is a bit deeper, but personally I'd rather remove Scottie Scheffler and his all but guaranteed top five from the equation, which is what we're doing here.

In his place comes a favourite who suffered the toughest blow of his career last time, an out of sorts Schauffele, and a player in Si Woo Kim who declared himself a bottler after he too missed out on a fine chance to win the Open. That was harsh, but once more speaks to how hard it can be to go again after a close call in a major championship.

Knapp would be as worthy a winner as you'll find on the PGA Tour and we'll give him another chance at a course which is no less suitable.

I do wonder whether the 3M Open will prove our best guide, firstly because it gave players an opportunity to reacclimatise following a fortnight in the UK, secondly because it's been a reliable one in the past. Remember, Bryson DeChambeau and Matt Wolff reversed places here having fought out the finish at Twin Cities a year earlier and on similarly soft greens, expect a good amount of leaderboard crossover.

HIDEKI MATSUYAMA is a class act who could make prices around the 28/1 mark appear very generous after he finished third there.

Matsuyama played the best golf in the field over the final 54 holes of the 3M Open, capped by a chip-in eagle at the 72nd hole, and that followed top-15s in both the Travelers and the Open Championship.

Key to this step up from a solid but unspectacular start to summer has been improvement off the tee, where his accuracy is up and he's become much more effective as a result. That's the one department which tends to hold him back but three of his best four driving performances of the year have come via these most recent three starts.

Last week, just three players found more fairways and when Matsuyama is dialled in from the tee, he becomes a very dangerous proposition, one who rather stands out in a field absent of the very biggest stars on the PGA Tour.

It's true that his short-game was electric at Twin Cities and that his iron play wasn't, but Matsuyama can be expected to dial those approaches back in at a course where he should have wedge in hand often. This is one of the very best short-iron players of the last decade or so and the set-up in Detroit should therefore be ideal.

So far he's hinted at that when first in strokes-gained approach last year but undone by wayward driving and for the most part his ball-striking has been excellent here, so with his putter much better lately I am hopeful he can build on an eye-catching performance behind Koivun and contend in Detroit for the first time.

Matsuyama has been third at Sedgefield, fourth at East Lake, 15th at Aronimink and 19th at Oak Hill, so his Ross form is excellent, and I tend to think he's underrated in the betting quite often. An 11-time PGA Tour winner and major champion, there's really nobody I'd rather have on my side in the mix. Here's hoping that's where he'll be come Sunday.

This sense that Twin Cities form may just carry over is also why I'm willing to take a shorter price on DAVIS THOMPSON after his seventh place there.

Thompson had shown nothing in the 3M Open before so we can upgrade a performance which came courtesy of his trademark ball-striking, as he ranked third in strokes-gained off-the-tee and seventh with his approaches. Those irons have been heating up since the US Open and he's hitting the ball really well now.

We will need more from Thompson's short-game but perhaps not much, as he was runner-up here two years ago when second in the tee-to-green stats and holing relatively little. I'd actually put him up at 400/1 back in 2021, on his debut in the event, when he stormed into a first-round lead before understandably fading out of contention, so he has plenty of fond memories of the course to call upon.

Four cuts made from four starts, gaining strokes off the tee and with his approaches each time, speak to how much Thompson enjoys this classical test and he does also boast some good Donald Ross form in the Wyndham, where he's been 22nd, 12th and 11th on his last three visits and twice in the mix on Sunday.

That course helped point to two wins here for Cameron Davis and with these greens made to play more in line with Ross's original designs, it's a good place to go looking for clues. The key difference between them is that Sedgefield is more likely to suit a precise player, whereas on everything that happened prior to the restoration, this one suited a more powerful one, but Thompson has both bases covered anyway.

Thompson also has ninth place in the 2024 US Open at the Ross-designed Pinehurst to call upon and from 93rd in FedExCup points, it's therefore a boost to his Playoff prospects that a trip to Detroit coincides with a return to form, and is then followed by Sedgefield for the Wyndham Championship.

He has two good tournaments from which to sneak in and if he putts as he did last weekend throughout all four rounds, he ought to be close. This is another brilliant wedge player which helps explain why he's been so effective both here and at Deere Run, and his win there two years ago came on the back of a couple of top-10s. He can at least threaten a repeat.

Eric Cole has Sedgefield form and played well on his sole previous start here in Detroit, so having caught the eye regularly of late he was considered. The trouble is, driver is his weakness and generally explains why he can't put four rounds together, something we saw when he climbed from 142nd to 11th in the Open only to fade, and when playing himself out of the John Deere on day one too.

Perhaps the first-round lead is the angle and on that, I did consider Gordon Sargent. Runner-up two starts ago, this freakishly long hitter would appeal as a potential Potgieter successor and is as big as 900/1 in the outright betting having only missed the cut by one last week. However, Sargent's approach play is some of the very worst you'll see from a top-tier golfer and will catch him out at some stage, probably early on.

Back to the land of the sensible and I'll take JOHNNY KEEFER to pick up where he left off with last Friday's 66.

It wasn't enough to make the weekend after a nightmare 76 to begin the 3M Open, but Keefer was returning from a fortnight in the UK and I'll forgive him that. He was right back into the groove in round two and what's pleasing is that for the third start running, his short-game was much improved.

Keefer's short-game is what has kept him down plenty a leaderboard this year but this imperious ball-striker has produced three top-10s, all when able to get driver in his hands and unleash. That has been the formula here in the past and if it remains the case despite the changes, he really should like what he sees.

At 73rd in FedExCup points, Keefer is another with a job to do over the next fortnight and this is a better fit than Sedgefield, where he won't be able to lean on his favourite club to the same extent. Hopefully then his second-round 66 provides a springboard and if he does continue to putt well, the standout Korn Ferry Tour graduate will be a big threat for as long as he can keep playing.

There might be some concerns over his iron play at Twin Cities but that course accentuates misses and I would expect Keefer to do as he's done a couple of times this season and bounce back from a rare blip. Indeed two of those top-10 finishes came after his iron play had gone walkabouts and I'm happy trusting his ability to slip back into the groove here.

He won his second Korn Ferry Tour title this week last year and having finished third in world-class company in Scotland before sitting a handy 25th after two rounds of the Open, all we really have to do is forgive him one round in Minnesota. I'm willing to do that and buy into Keefer's enormous potential at a nice price.

Sungjae worth chancing

Ben James is another with potential and he could be inspired not only by Koivun, but by Tommy Morrison's win last weekend. Both were college rivals and by now we know these new professionals are ready to go, James himself having been fourth in the ISCO Championship before a backwards step. He's drifted in the market but now comes to a course where he finished a good 44th as an amateur two summers ago.

The other two more familiar names I considered are of the same sort of profile as Knapp: Michael Thorbjornsen and Nicolai Hojgaard. Both arrive with their long-games in good shape but neither played last week and these PGA Tour maidens appear short enough in the market despite fairly obvious credentials on paper.

Thorbjornsen in particular was hard to overlook having been fourth last year and three of his best five PGA Tour performances have come in this part of the US. Born in Ohio, that makes sense and I'm a huge fan of his, but while 33/1 would've looked fair on his early-season form, right now the Betfair Exchange prices of around 60.0 are a better reflection of his recent play. Those who can take them should strongly consider doing so.

Kris Ventura's improved iron play and solid effort here last year earned him a glance, as did Patrick Fishburn's improved putting last week given how well he's hit the ball at Detroit before, but there's a much more realistic winner I can't get past in SUNGJAE IM.

We know by now that the Korean has struggled with his iron play for a couple of seasons, badly and bewilderingly at times, but there were hints of improvement when he finished alongside Matsuyama in 14th place at Birkdale a fortnight ago.

Last week saw an unwelcome return to negative numbers but looking closer, over the final nine holes on Friday he didn't miss and green and set up a load of chances, while a glance at the wedge proximity stats has him significantly higher now than he has been for a long time.

He'll have more wedges in his hands here, the penalty for a missed approach is less severe, and his killer short-game is a potentially great weapon with which to tackle these restored, Ross greens, which have been made larger to enable officials to tuck away some pins. That short-game can also come to the rescue in a way it couldn't when a misfired approach at the 9th last Friday found water.

Im has played 16 rounds here, all of them par or better, has an excellent record at Sedgefield and almost won the FedExCup at East Lake, so these classical, Ross-designed courses definitely suit his eye, and since returning from injury he has had three genuine chances to win.

Alongside this there's been some bad stuff too but missing the cut narrowly last week, for the third time in a row at that course, has seen him dangled at a big price for this more suitable one. Given my record this year maybe this isn't the time for a hunch, but I can't shake the feeling that we're going to see improvement from his irons and another weekend in contention from a genuine class act.

Im is safe when it comes to making the first event of the Playoffs but he's never failed to reach the finale at East Lake and, in a Presidents Cup year, will be eager to keep that streak alive. As with Thompson, the return to a couple of courses he really likes the look of is nicely timed and were he to play well here, he could go off half the price for the Wyndham. Let's hope we're catching him early.

Posted at 09:00 BST on 28/07/26

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