Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Myrtle Beach Classic preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Myrtle Beach Classic

4pts win Brooks Koepka at 16/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfred, BOYLE Sports)

3pts win Davis Thompson at 20/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair, bet365)

2pts e.w. Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen at 28/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Kristoffer Ventura at 50/1 (Betfred, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Zach Bauchou at 66/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

0.5pt e.w. Jimmy Stanger at 180/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

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There have only been two editions of the Myrtle Beach Classic so far, but the message from both is very clear: Dunes Golf and Beach Club is one of the more bomber-friendly golf courses on the PGA Tour calendar.

First, Chris Gotterup won by six shots and what's telling about his victory is the manner in which he did it. Sometimes, big-hitters win on golf courses that don't particularly suit them because they hit good second shots and hole putts and that was somewhat true. But Gotterup was also willing to be ultra-aggressive off the tee and take his chances, because the punishment for missing his target was insignificant.

It makes sense therefore than Ryan Fox succeeded him. Fox is a wayward powerhouse who also likes to get on the front foot and led a leaderboard of players used to hitting shots from the rough. Among the eventual top six, more players ranked outside the top 50 in fairways than inside the top 30, and nobody bettered 22nd. Two of that same group were 10th or better in distance and that doesn't include Fox, who we know for sure is long (driving distance stats are based on only a couple of shots per round).

Returning to the inaugural edition, Gotterup won convincingly despite hitting fewer than 50% of fairways and three of those finishing T4 or better, including Fox himself, were 60th or worse in driving accuracy. Some of the longest and most wayward players in the field were left to dominate and while it's true that it ought to have been Mackenzie Hughes, not Fox, who won last year, the Canadian struggles to hit fairways even if he's no long-hitter.

Hughes helps bring us to the second point of note: class. We didn't know it then but certainly know now that Gotterup is a world-class player; Fox, meanwhile, was probably unfortunate not to be in the Signature Event that week. He went on to win the Canadian Open and is a multiple champion all over the world, while Hughes has played in the Presidents Cup and contended for majors. These opposite fields are weak and, increasingly, they're won by a top prospect or someone who may feel they shouldn't be here.

That applies to the Puerto Rico Open, won by potential stars in each of the last two years, and the same goes for the last three renewals of the Barracuda Championship. The ISCO has gone to Vincent Norrman (where is he, you ask), Harry Hall and William Mouw, each of them a quality young player, and it was Garrick Higgo (both young and a proven winner) who followed Matt Wallace and Billy Horschel in the Corales Puntacana.

This run of better winners coincides with better fields. These opposite events now attract pretty much every PGA Tour member who didn't qualify for the corresponding Signature Event and with fields for those currently small, the knock-on effect is that we've players like BROOKS KOEPKA, Aaron Rai and Rasmus Hojgaard here in South Carolina. Any one of them would've made a viable contender were they alongside Rory McIlroy at Quail Hollow instead.

And while I'm sure some will strongly disagree with this view, Koepka really ought to be going close in this and I am more than happy taking double-figure prices about a player who for a long time would've been attracting support to win majors at similar odds.

There are very good reasons for that of course but since he returned to the PGA Tour earlier this year, I've argued that the concept of Koepka as a player with a one-track mind for majors no longer applies. He will be determined to play his way into Signature Events for one thing, and the FedExCup Playoffs, and I feel sure will want to validate his decision to abandon LIV Golf and compete at the highest level again.

Now this is not the highest level but it could be a key stepping stone on the way back there and it's less than a month since he finished 12th in the Masters, let's not forget. Prior to that, ninth in the Cognizant, 13th in The Players and 18th in the Valspar represents some of the very best form on offer, so it's not like we're being asked to take on trust that he's up to stamping his class on this event. He's played to a level which says he can this year, never mind in previous.

The course should be absolutely ideal for him and ultimately this ought to come down to whether he can compete with the putter. On that, the biggest source of encouragement comes from the fact his best two putting displays so far this year both came on similar greens in his native Florida. Another of those and I feel sure he'll be in the mix, where his name will stand out.

Ultimately I felt the top four in the betting all looked strong candidates so with limited places on offer I'll take two of them, with DAVIS THOMPSON preferred to Hojgaard and Marco Penge.

Thompson produced an exceptional tee-to-green display when a distant runner-up behind Gotterup two years ago and that was a key part of his progress towards victory in the John Deere Classic that summer, at which time he looked set to develop into a world-class player.

That it's not happened yet is largely down to some putting issues and that's remained the case for much of this year, but as with Koepka his best performances so far have been on bermuda greens, first in the Valspar and then when better than he's been in an age at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans.

Sixth alongside Austin Eckroat there, Thompson was very much the driving force behind that partnership and it's an ideal springboard for him to come back to a course he first played as an amateur, and has a game which is ideal for. That he was fourth in Puerto Rico demonstrates a level of relative class and combined with second place here, these are his only two opposite-field appearances over the last two years.

I'd firmly expect Thompson to contend if putting better than average and while Penge and Hojgaard have fewer doubts surrounding that club, Koepka and Thompson are hitting the ball better. I'd much rather take my chances on the greens than elsewhere and bermuda is certainly a potential boost to the respective claims of both players, Thompson having been born and raised in Georgia and gone to college in Alabama.

It was the General Hackler Championship that gave Thompson experience of Dunes during his amateur days and JIMMY STANGER, another big-hitter who shares Koepka's Florida roots, won it in 2016 before returning here to add the Southern Amateur later that same year.

Stanger spoke about how special it was to return two years ago and while he did miss the cut, his driving was excellent at a time when the rest of his game was a bit of a mess. Returning now with some decent early-season results behind him and as one of the longer hitters in the field, I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility that he putts it all together.

Stanger was down the field in New Orleans but played with one of the worst performers in the event, his own ball-striking right up there with the best. As he'd previously holed everything he looked at in Texas and done some good things when we sided with him at huge odds in the Houston Open, there's been ample evidence that he's not far away.

He was close to the lead for a lot of the Cognizant when ultimately 32nd, then finished 26th in Puerto Rico when sent off a much shorter price the following week. I feel his individual performance at the Zurich Classic has been overshadowed by the rotten golf his partner produced and it means we can afford to have a minimum-stakes play at massive odds.

It's not just that he's won here twice but in returning last time, Stanger spoke about how well it suits his eye, the way it favours players like him who can draw the ball, and the advantage his power provides. If he drives it as well as he did back then, he could be in the shake-up.

Following the same path leads to RASMUS NEERGAARD-PETERSEN and I'll also add the more realistic winner.

The Dane hasn't pulled up any trees on the PGA Tour so far but he's doubled in price from the Puerto Rico Open and now at least has a platform to build from, having been fourth alongside Jacob Skov Olesen in New Orleans last time.

Neergaard-Petersen putted better there which is encouraging and having produced such a strong tee-to-green performance at the Masters, his long-game is more than good enough to carry him deep into this tournament. From there, again we're taking our chances that he can hole his share, buoyed perhaps by having done so in Louisiana.

But what I really like is that he won the General Hackler in 2022 while playing college golf in Oklahoma, which means this won't be new to him. It's a very steep learning curve out on the PGA Tour and being that bit more comfortable, with some FedExCup points finally in the bag, could be a big boost to his prospects of keeping status for 2027.

Neergaard-Petersen showed at the back-end of last year, when earning his card with a gutsy finish in Dubai and going on to beat Cam Smith and Si Woo Kim in the final group of the Australian Open, that be belongs at this level. It won't surprise me if he underlines that point back at a course where he went a long way to advertising his potential before turning pro.

Going back to Stanger and the player who finished second to him in the first of those two wins was ZACH BAUCHOU, who has caught my eye regularly in what's his maiden season on the PGA Tour.

Hand on heart he wasn't necessarily on my radar for this as he's a solid rather than explosive driver of the ball, but that positive course form combined with the way he fared in New Orleans following an improved top-30 finish in Texas has forced a rethink.

He's certainly a big price based on form – in simple terms, I feel that players like him who are consistently beating the field average without contending can too easily be overlooked – and those around him in the DataGolf rankings are generally more towards the 33-40/1 mark, so at twice that price concerns over a lack of power are worth accepting.

Bauchou won a low-scoring Korn Ferry Tour event in Tennessee having been a college golfer at Oklahoma before Neergaard-Petersen, and in finishing 13th last time he was rather weighed down by Sam Stevens, who is about the same price to win the Truist Championship this week.

Bar the Houston Open he's performed with credit every time he's teed it up, including when 21st in Puerto Rico, and another step forward seems possible at a course where he might immediately feel more at ease.

Teenage star Barclay Brown has played here twice which is a boost to his chances but he's been well-found in the market now, so to finish I want to pull at a thread which suggests the Sanderson Farms Championship is the best place to go hunting for clues.

The list of players with strong form at both includes but is by no means limited to Hughes, Fox, Kevin Yu, Beau Hossler, Hayden Buckley, Alex Smalley and Patton Kizzire, while Steven Fisk's win late last year came a few months after he'd been 13th in this tournament.

It's why I did consider overlooking Eric Cole's weak driving and Garrick Higgo's miserable run of form, but the one to take from it for my money is KRISTOFFER VENTURA.

A big-hitter whose putting is a massive strength, Ventura has shown significant improvements with his iron play lately. They weren't rewarded across two starts in Texas, latterly when his short-game abandoned him, but he was excellent alongside Kristoffer Reitan when the pair were runners-up in Louisnana.

Ventura was arguably the star performer there as his blend of long driving and deadly putting, one Reitan shares, was complemented by good approach shots and a tidy short-game, and if he brings that with him to South Carolina he'll be a big player.

Sixth and 21st from two starts in Jackson offers major encouragement and while he missed the cut at this course last year, he's well worth another chance now that his iron play appears to have turned a corner.

Ventura has always been a player of big potential – the story goes that Viktor Hovland was scouted by someone who had travelled to Norway to see Ventura – and two Korn Ferry Tour wins show what he can do. With money in the bank now, he's an each-way player at a course I think is made for him.

Posted at 11:25 BST on 05/05/26

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