Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Isco Championship preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: ISCO Championship

4pts win Max Homa at 19/1 (bet365, 18/1 general)

3pts win Davis Thompson at 24/1 (bet365, 22/1 general)

2pts e.w. Lucas Glover at 45/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Harry Higgs at 80/1 (bet365, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook | Free bets

There's an element of confirmation bias running through interviews with players who've just finished their rounds in any PGA Tour event. Almost without exception they've played well; they're generally going to be feeling chipper and they ought not to have much to complain about. Ask them what they made of the golf course and it stands to reason that they'll be focusing on the positives.

That being said, it's striking how strong the sentiment was when the PGA Tour visited Hurstbourne Country Club for the first time last year. Cynics might say that Keene Trace, former venue of the ISCO Championship, hadn't set the bar particularly high, but virtually every player who met with the media wanted to talk about how much they enjoyed its successor. Specifically, many of them referred to firm fairways and firm greens and how they differed from the norm.

It makes you wonder why the PGA Tour seems to go out of its way at times to present soft, receptive conditions, often resulting in preferred lies which purists know are detrimental to the game. Sometimes this is beyond anyone's control but I certainly get the sense that the Tour sometimes shies away from testing its players with the bounce of the golf ball, retreating instead beneath the comfort blanket of target golf. But that certainly wasn't the case here at Hurstbourne.

The event began and ended with rounds of 61, first from Chan Kim and then from the champion, William Mouw. Were those and the history of this tournament the only things you had to go on, even knowing this course is a par 70 would surely have left you wondering how far beyond 20-under the winning score was. Mouw though reached just 10-under. Four-under was enough for a top-10 finish. Even allowing for the strength of field, this was seriously hard.

One of the other satisfying aspects of the tournament, at least from the point of view of fan rather than punter, was that it seemingly provided no discernible advantage for any one type of player. Mouw is a strong driver, above average in distance, whose game is based around quality approach work. Runner-up Paul Peterson is a fairways-first, short-hitting player and there were others, like Ben Kohles and Kevin Kisner, in the top 10. Yet right on their heels was Cameron Champ.

Some spoke of being able to put their distance to use but only by accepting risk, firing over the corners of dog-legs and often hoping for the best from the rough. While they were doing so, players more in the Peterson mould could rely on their ability to play to the corner, rather than around it, and be in the fairway. It made for a fantastically eclectic leaderboard from which I'd draw one key conclusion: the PGA Tour members dominated. Only one DP World Tour player made the top 20 of this co-sanctioned event.

There is one snag, and that's a potentially significant change in conditions. Last year, Louisville had gone through a dry spell in the weeks and months prior to the tournament. Twelve months on and the amount of rain that's fallen, plus the potential of more to come both before and during the tournament, could mean that those cutting corners have more of an advantage than when running out of fairway before.

The market has reacted strongly to last week's John Deere Classic, with MAX HOMA, Ben Kohles and Christiaan Bezuidenhout all moved into the space behind Jackson Koivun, who missed the cut on his pro debut.

This time last year I put up Homa for the Barracuda Championship after a back-to-form top-five in the John Deere and I'll admit to some trepidation in repeating that approach, but this course ought to suit him down to the ground and he's the best player in the field.

It was striking how confident he sounded on Sunday, much more so than 12 months earlier when there was a sense that he'd found something to his own surprise. Now, back with his former coach Mark Blackburn, the message is more that good golf has been coming and there will be more of it.

"Yeah, it's easier to stay patient when you are playing like I am," he said, having fallen just short. "It was fun, but the game just feels good, so you feel like every hole you're a swing away from making a birdie, so that's nice."

Homa had previously finished 22nd and 20th across Colonial and Canada after a run of five starts at the very highest level dating back to ninth place in the Masters, so there's some substance to his play and it's especially encouraging to see that his driving and approach play are both firing again.

Any further improvement from the latter would make him hard to beat here and having acknowledged that shootouts like the John Deere generally haven't suited him down the years, Hurstbourne's tougher scoring conditions seem a big positive.

Clearly, the market has reacted to his runner-up finish but there's more to come from Homa and having regretted leaving him out of my staking plan last week, hopefully he can deliver and rubber-stamp his return to form. From 73rd in the world, this could be where he begins his return to the top table.

I do fear Koivun but would rather side with DAVIS THOMPSON, one of many examples of a fine amateur who has met with reality in the pro ranks as having rightly been touted as a potential superstar both before and after his sole win to date.

Thompson romped to victory in the John Deere Classic two summers ago, soon after ninth place in the US Open, and at the time looked like the sort of player who would be in the conversation for the Ryder Cup. However, a relapse with the putter and some patchy approach play undermined the progress of this fabulous driver.

Two years on from the JDC we're still waiting but fourth in Puerto Rico and 13th in Myrtle Beach this season represent a clear demonstration of how dangerous he ought to be dropping in grade. Before this year, Thompson's previous start in one of these opposite events was back in 2024, a few weeks prior to his breakthrough, when he finished runner-up.

So far all of his best form has come in this grade or one just slightly higher, including second in an AmEx and in a Rocket Mortgage Classic, and I'd be disappointed if he can't build on a fine ball-striking performance last week now making his debut in the ISCO Championship.

Third in that category and seventh in strokes-gained tee-to-green, we're back wondering if the putter will behave but there were good signs in Canada after he topped his US Open qualifier. The softer conditions and potential emphasis on quality driving makes him a good course fit and there are strong similarities with last year's champion, Mouw.

Having been on at a similar price at Myrtle Beach, where subsequent major champion Aaron Rai was among a clutch of better-than-this-grade players which also included Brooks Koepka, Thompson is hard to overlook in what's a slightly weaker field.

All kinds of players win these opposite events but there's still no substitute for class and LUCAS GLOVER is another who merits plenty of respect.

Glover was back to his best from tee-to-green last week and it wasn't by chance – his coach was in Illinois and they worked on something which fixed his long-game. Nobody hit the ball better than he did and had the putter fired on Sunday, perhaps he'd have matched Chris Gotterup's winning score.

It would be easy to view it as a flash in the pan given that Glover hasn't done much this year, but 10 of his previous 15 starts had been in majors or Signature Events and some had produced promise, particularly on a couple of big golf courses in Florida.

Plus, there's strong precedent for Glover finding something and running with it. We saw this most explicitly when he won back-to-back in 2023, but he produced back-to-back top-10s from nowhere late in 2024, did it again in March last year, and again at around this time last summer. Back in 2023 he managed three in a row, the first again having come from nowhere.

Five of the last six times Glover has returned to form with a surprise top 10, he's produced another on his very next start, so there's every reason to believe that he can build on a quality display in the John Deere Classic on what's a rare foray into the bottom grade of the PGA Tour.

Indeed he's played in this just one before, three years ago, and was fifth, leading the field from tee-to-green. That came at Keene Trace but it followed a top-10 in the JDC and there's no reason he can't repeat it. As far as each-way bets go there's none better in golf this week.

Harry can cast a spell

A note next on recent US Open qualifiers that don't appear in the form book, because it's striking how many players have gone on to contend somewhere.

Zac Blair, Ben Kohles, Jackson Suber, Jimmy Stanger, Tom Kim, Keith Mitchell, Matt Wallace and Hennie Du Plessis all either qualified or wound up on the alternate list for Shinnecock and all have had a good look at winning in the weeks since, which is a boost to Thompson's chances but perhaps also those of HARRY HIGGS.

Higgs was in the mix heading into the weekend of the US Open, which he'd done well to qualify for (as an alternate), and while predictably fading, he built on that when 21st at the John Deere. Given his previous course form figures of MC-MC-57-MC-MC, that was a notable performance.

Having gained strokes through the bag following a strong ball-striking display at Shinnecock, there's some underlying strength to the way he's playing all of a sudden and he's also one of those who has some course form and experience to call upon. Higgs closed with a round of 68 for 28th last year and that's despite putting poorly.

Second at Bermuda and Myrtle Beach, he has some strong opposite form to call upon and this is also broadly speaking the right part of the US for a player born in Kansas. Higgs has three wins so far, two of them in neighbouring Missouri and one to the south in Tennessee, and while there are of course many miles separating these locations, playing conditions are similar.

Higgs looks a live one having gone close to winning in better fields and shown plenty with his long-game in his last couple of starts. Indeed all parts of his game appear to be in good order so maybe he can bring the house down.

Those US Open qualifiers had me wondering about 200/1 chance Nick Hardy, a good driver who was eighth here last year and shot 66 in round two last week, but the one I came closest to adding was Neal Shipley.

First in this field for strokes-gained off-the-tee, Shipley excels with driver and there have been signs of better approach play and putting lately, which explains why he's made four cuts in six and missed out just narrowly at Deere Run.

He went to college for a while in neighbouring Virginia and has a top-10 finish to his name in this event in this event, albeit at Keene Trace. Plus, it was this time last year that he caught fire, with a run of 5-1-7-3-8 from mid-June to mid-August. The win was in Colorado, where the Korn Ferry Tour returns this week.

However, for what he's achieved a best of 66/1 is the absolute minimum anyone should be taking and in a weak market there's no sense in advising a player whose short-game deficiencies will probably be exposed anyway.

Wise to overlook rank outsider...

Those looking for a fifth selection might consider Aaron Wise, whose comeback looks to be getting there. He broke 70 in each of the first three rounds last week to lie 12th entering Sunday and, at 300/1, there are worse ways to speculate in an event which lacks depth.

Wise has been inside the top 10 after round one twice in three starts now so first-round leader punters should keep an eye out for tee-times and any potential wave bias, but at the time of writing those things aren't known and I'll let him go unbacked along with Beau Hossler, the only other name on my shortlist.

Hossler's form this year is sneakily good and he played nicely on debut here, but 33/1 about a 247-start maiden requires a flawless case and there isn't one.

Hossler, who has a nice little side gig with his coffee business, is another one-time amateur star who should remind us that you have to go out there and earn your stripes on the PGA Tour.

I think Koivun will do that but for now let's stick with the established players who aren't dealing with the level of expectation he has to face.

Posted at 12:00 BST on 07/07/26

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.