Zac Blair won this three-ball on Wednesday, but I'll be surprised if he does it again around the tougher South Course. He's one of the shortest drivers on the PGA Tour playing one of its longest courses and while he has some form here, he holed everything when 11th on debut almost a decade ago. More often than not, he's been exposed by the South.

That leaves BEAU HOSSLER and Eric Cole, closely matched on paper and inseparable yesterday. However, Hossler was on track to beat Cole for most of the round and should do around the South, where his extra power is a potentially big advantage.

Cole shot 77-73 here in the US Open and has missed both Farmers cuts so far. His best round in four goes came courtesy of an excellent day on and around the greens, but he ranked the single worst driver in the field that day and that club can be a big weakness at times. Hossler not only has two top-10s in this but several under-par rounds at the South Course to his name.

Pendrith to beat Putnam and Campos (1723)

Looking for power mismatches around the South Course seems a good policy to me and few are more stark than this. TAYLOR PENDRITH is among the top five or six in the field for distance when he unleashes in the way he can; Andrew Putnam ranked 183rd of 184 players on the PGA Tour last year.

Perhaps that's why Putnam has only played the event twice before but these days, he knows he sort of has to if he wants to sneak into the field for Pebble Beach which, by contrast, suits him down to the ground. An opening 67 keeps that dream alive but another 500 or so yards on the scorecard means it'll be a grind from here and he remains an unlikely champion.

Pendrith, who loves the South Course, might actually have more to worry about from Rafael Campos. He's longer than Putnam and has played two decent rounds here, but he hit only seven fairways and nine greens in a round of 74 at the North and that's a concern. His long-game has been very poor in all three starts this year and the South ought to expose it.

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Other options and an outright addition

I'd have been siding with Jake Knapp at odds-against had more firms priced up. He was third in this event last year and has 50 yards on Peter Malnati off the tee if he wants it, while Davis Riley's struggles continue. Malnati edged Knapp at the North, but around the South I doubt he'll do it again.

It's tempting to take a contrarian view of Charley Hoffman's group. Hoffman has the recent form having contended last week and he has the local connection too, but his South Course record is modest. Henrik Norlander, by contrast, has been better than the field average in five of seven rounds and with Sami Valimaki clipped having won this yesterday, Norlander might represent value. The trouble is, he played poorly at the North so is off the list.

Patrick Rodgers should've obliged for us on day one but made a couple of costly late mistakes and did not putt well. His group are off to the North Course but he's 6/4 and I hadn't necessarily expected him to be eased slightly having been on at 11/8 (general 5/4) for their round at the South. Those looking for a third leg, who do not have access to prices on Knapp's group, could consider him.

Finally, I have to add NORMAN XIONG outright at 150/1, although he's another you'd want to be backing at close to 2/1 for his three-ball had more firms priced up.

I selected the man they call the Panda last year at 500/1 and he missed the cut on the number. This time around, he's off to a great start having shot 68 at the much tougher South Course, a score bettered by only three players.

It was encouraging to see him putt so well as that club is his big weakness and in fact, he's done that in all three measured rounds at the South Course now. Perhaps that's not a coincidence, because he's played dozens if not hundreds of rounds here, is a past champion in the Junior Worlds played at Torrey Pines, and grew up in San Diego.

Then there's the fact that while not at all consistent, he's a two-time Korn Ferry Tour winner, the latter under very tough conditions. Both these wins saw him enter the final round towards the top of a bunched leaderboard and power clear, winning by five shots the first time and four the second.

In fact only three times has he entered round four with a chance and the other saw him finish second, so he's shown a handy knack of hanging around when an opportunity does arise. It's no given that it will this week as he still has to go out and score at the North Course today, but the starts made by Ludvig Aberg and Hideki Matsuyama have helped ensure he remains quoted at three-figure prices and they look generous.

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Posted at 1200 GMT on 23/01/25

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