After an excellent finish to the PGA Championship last time, Justin Thomas looks primed for the Charles Schwab Challenge.
- 80th edition of heritage PGA Tour event
- In-form Ludvig Aberg makes course debut
- Justin Thomas returns to suitable layout
Golf betting tips: Charles Schwab Challenge
3pts win Justin Thomas at 22/1 (Unibet, Priced Up - 20/1 general)
1.5pts e.w. Sungjae Im at 40/1 (William Hill, 888sport 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1.5pts e.w. Max Greyserman at 40/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1pt e.w. Michael Kim at 80/1 (Betfred, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Emiliano Grillo at 100/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Tom Hoge at 100/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
As the PGA Tour continues to evolve, one of the things everyone wants to protect is the history which underpins everything. That history comes in many forms, from last week's tournament title that nodded to Byron Nelson in a horribly clunky way, to events like the Charles Schwab Challenge and golf courses like Colonial Country Club, which this week combine for the 80th time.
Two years ago, Gil Hanse completed a restoration of this classical, mid-length par 70, and the first edition played subsequent to that threw up a 250/1 winner. But the course form book did still point to Davis Riley and Ben Griffin's victory last year, while his first notable effort at the course, still supports the idea that the underlying challenge remains largely as it was before.
Colonial is a tricky, turning golf course with fairways that are hard to hit, and in general it rewards experience – the last player to win this title on debut was Sergio Garcia a quarter of a century ago, and he's also the last player to capture his first PGA Tour title in this event, albeit Riley and Griffin were both doing so for the first time as individuals. Still, a bit of nous and some experience of the layout both count for something.
How you win is by staying out of trouble first and foremost. Distilled, the phrase 'hit fairways' would do but that's not quite true and it's as much about where you miss them; Griffin hit about 50%, runner-up Matti Schmid didn't even manage that, and sixth-placed Ryo Hisatsune missed two for every one he found. All of them managed their mistakes and holed out well on what are smaller-than-average greens.
There is a potential edge for those who do hit stacks of fairways, exemplified by the fact that Harry Hall led the field in both driving accuracy and strokes-gained off-the-tee last year, but I wouldn't get carried away with short and straight hitters as to my eye the profile has evolved since Chris Kirk, Kevin Na, Kevin Kisner and Daniel Berger all won here.
Beyond what happens off the tee, a course whose heritage massively predates the data generation can be summed up as a good, all-round test of golf.
As for where to look for clues, Sedgefield, Harbour Town and Southwind all help, but the two courses that stand out are Oakmont and Copperhead. The former in particular throws up some strong correlations from last year's US Open leaderboard, with Colonial champions Sam Burns, Griffin, Chris Kirk, Adam Scott, Emiliano Grillo and Jordan Spieth all in the top 25. Tough driving and Hanse's touch are obvious connections between the two.
Tough driving also covers Copperhead, home of the Valspar Championship. Burns and Spieth have won both that and the Charles Schwab, Riley, Jim Furyk, Sean O'Hair, Boo Weekley, Jason Kokrak and Kevin Na have all come very close, and Adam Schenk boasts the runner-up double. Copperhead twists and turns making fairways difficult to hit, and its greens are only slightly bigger. Most simply of all, it too is a good test.
Ludvig Aberg doesn't have much experience of these courses but fourth at Harbour Town, ninth at Southwind and 14th at Sedgefield is encouraging. Most of all he's one of the best five or six golfers on the planet right now and if anyone is going to buck the trend and win here on debut, it surely will be him. Aberg looks fairly priced and if the putts begin to drop, a third PGA Tour title could be his for the taking.
The putter and a lack of Colonial experience are two sizeable unknowns, however, and in a weak field for this event (Scottie Scheffler misses it for the first time since 2019) I'm happy taking JUSTIN THOMAS against him.
Thomas has only played here three times himself but was 10th on debut in 2020, when lying second through 54 holes and doing a lot right, certainly from tee-to-green. I believe him when he says the schedule is the reason he's not been a regular visitor as these old-school golf courses have always appealed to a Waialae, Harbour Town, Southwind, Sawgrass and Southern Hills champion.
It was a few days after his second PGA win at Southern Hills that Thomas missed the cut here on his latest visit, easily forgiven in the circumstances, and across both that and his mid-pack finish a year earlier he at least drove the ball well. When he does that, one of the finest iron players of this generation is dangerous, and I suspect he really likes both the look of this place and the variety of shots it demands.
Thomas has a fabulous record in the Valspar, where he's done everything but win, and whereas he's had excuses for taking his eye off the ball in this event previously, that isn't the case this time. He arrives not only bang in-form but still on the comeback trail following a six-month break, and it's notable that his best efforts since have come at broadly similar, classical golf courses and ones where he'd enjoyed previous success.
Pick of the bunch was fourth place in the PGA Championship last time, where for a little while his storming finish threatened to be enough for a play-off. That came about thanks to further improvements in his putting and across his last two starts, beginning with a contending 13th place in the Truist Championship, he's gained strokes right through the bag.
With Russell Henley out of sorts, Robert MacIntyre's approach play not good and Griffin relying heavily on his putter at the moment, already Thomas stands out as the clear threat to Aberg. That he's a former world number one with 18 professional wins to his name including two majors makes him the most decorated player in a modest field and, at a course made for him, this looks a massive opportunity if he picks up where he left off at Aronimink.
Spaun's top-10 last year set him up for that Oakmont stunner and he returns having hit the ball well for most of the season, including when winning the Texas Open over in San Antonio for a second time. He was among my selections just prior to that at the Valspar, partly because of that Colonial connection, and his missed cut in the PGA was solely down to the greens foxing him. These are flatter and far less fearsome.
Having lost a play-off at Southwind to further underline how well this ought to suit, Spaun is respected, but I marginally prefer another player who looks close to completing his comeback in SUNGJAE IM.
Im returned alongside Thomas at the Arnold Palmer Invitational following a similar absence, and he now has three top-10s in his last nine including his last two non-major starts. Slowly but surely, the Korean is on his way back to the top 50 in the world and no doubt the reason he's playing for the eighth week in a row is that he wants to do so by the final US Open cut-off in a couple of weeks.
For many, that run of golf would be a negative but this is a workhorse who won on his 15th consecutive appearance once, and the fact this is Colonial week is also likely to be part of his decision to play. There's a big Korean contingent in this part of Texas so he'll be right at home and the course is a good one for him, as demonstrated by three top-15 finishes including ninth place on his sole appearance post-restoration.
Crucially, that was powered by his typical good driving performance plus strong approach play, which is the area of the game which continues to hold him back a little. But that was also true two years ago: he arrived here losing about half a stroke per round with his irons but stepped up considerably, and with a similar season-long number this time, the hope is that had something to do with the golf course and can be repeated.
Im also showed signs of life last week, a hole-in-one the best demonstration of that, and it was only the final round which undermined some otherwise good work. Again, that presents a bit of an unknown and he'll need to avoid a repeat, but as a high-accuracy driver with a dynamite short-game who is knocking loudly on the door again, there really is only one thing that appears to be missing.
He has that strong Copperhead connection with two top-fives in four, has been second at Sedgefield, sixth at Southwind and generally good at Harbour Town, so again there's little doubt this is the right kind of golf course. We're left to wonder if he can be a bit better than average with the second shot and having produced several strong tee-to-green displays here, that's a risk I'm willing to take for this class act.
Bud Cauley, Mac Meissner and MAX GREYSERMAN are all looking for their first wins at an event which doesn't hand those out often, so I've tried to be hyper-critical of their prospects.
Cauley was third here last year and also likes Copperhead, Meissner has strong local ties and also boasts a top-five finish from just two starts, but it's Greyserman to whom I'll give the benefit of the doubt. He's the one who has been closest to winning and his form is clearly heading in the right direction.
Since staying on well for 38th in the Cadillac and supplementing that with 31st the following week, Greyserman has been 14th in the PGA Championship and ninth in last week's Byron Nelson. The latter won't have escaped anyone's attention given some extraordinary ball-striking numbers from a habitually strong putter, but it hasn't resulted in the drastic action I had half expected from the market.
Of course, it's likely that he regresses in the ball-striking department but there's scope for much more from his short-game to help compensate, and I am encouraged by the fact that he hit the ball well when 22nd here last year. Fifth in strokes-gained approach has to go down as a big positive and he ought to be feeling confident coming back to the sort of traditional course he so enjoys.
Second twice in Japan to players who have contended at Colonial, he's also been second at Sedgefield and was a decent 33rd at Copperhead as an out-of-form rookie. Then there's Oakmont, where he finished 23rd in last summer's US Open despite an opening 76, his second-round 67 the very best in the field.
At 67th in the world Greyserman also has work to do to return to the US Open, where he'd be chasing three good performances in a row having also played nicely at Pinehurst, and after a career-best ball-striking week he's the one maiden I have to have on-side. At the time of writing, there's 40/1 on offer to 10 places, but some smaller firms have him 50-plus for those able to take the biggest prices around.
Can Hoge finally step up in 'home' event?
Meissner's local ties did make me think twice about a player I like, one whose best performance so far came at Sedgefield, but I'll chance one-time winner TOM HOGE instead.
Hoge came to college in Texas and has called Fort Worth home for a long time, so this event carries extra significance for him. So far it's fair to say he's not handled it particularly well with a best of 17th place, but his ball-striking across the three most recent starts has been very good only for his short-game to go missing.
Returning now for his 10th try, the timing suddenly looks good after 26th in the PGA was followed by sixth place in the Nelson at Craig Ranch, where as a matter of coincidence his previous best had also been 17th. It came about because his trademark approach play was supplemented by his second strong putting performance in a row, and a hat-trick of them would make him a viable contender.
Hoge does have flashes of correlating form as he's contended at Sedgefield, been in the mix at halfway at both Harbour Town and Southwind and loves Sawgrass, while he in fact hit the ball extremely well only to miss the cut at Oakmont.
He's also a winner at Pebble Beach and while a long way from here, the courses used for that pro-am event offer variety and no clear advantage to the longer hitters, with Spieth, Justin Rose and Berger all recent winners at each and Collin Morikawa close to having done that double.
I've been disappointed by Hoge in this event before but given his display in the Nelson, which came after a big step forward at Aronimink, I want to give him another opportunity to step up in front of friends and family.
EMILIANO GRILLO has disappointed plenty of people in the past but we were on him at a big price when he won this title three years ago and perhaps he can do it again.
The Argentine is a frustrating sort as he can be very hard on himself despite being blessed with a gorgeous swing that often sees him hit fairways (13th for the season) and, at his best, can see him take out pins. That's what he's done so often here down the years, though it was fairly typical of the player that he once produced career-best putting stats at Colonial and still found a way to be beaten.
Having put that right when again lighting up the greens in 2023, still almost throwing it away when finding a ditch nobody knew exist to the right of the 18th fairway, he's confirmed now as a horses-for-courses player and that's been in evidence again lately. Last year's best came at Deere Run (second, matching his previous best) and Silverado (fourth), the latter the scene of his first PGA Tour win a decade or so ago.
This year his best came at the Valspar, which is handy, and he helps demonstrate that Oakmont connection having been 19th in the US Open and also made the cut in the same event back in 2016. Colonial, clearly, is one of his favourite courses on the circuit because it's one of the most suitable; it's therefore one of the handful where this enigmatic character will always make some sort of appeal.
And that's where we come to last week's performance, which I felt offered enough encouragement. Grillo was first in strokes-gained approach in round one, putted well both during that 64 and his final round, and generally looked on good terms with himself. Craig Ranch and its wide fairways was never likely to bring out his best for 72 holes, but it might've helped build some much-needed putting confidence.
Grillo has some post-restoration form here having been 16th last season, that his best performance anywhere for nine months, and he can begin to make the move he needs up the FedExCup standings. This is too good a player to be fighting for his card.
David Lipsky is another outsider with a squeak as his Valspar second catches the eye and he was ninth here two years ago, by far his best performance of the season. His missed cut in the PGA hides some quality approach work and prior to it, he was right in the hunt through 36 holes of the Truist. Outside of the Zurich Classic pairs event he's only played once at this lower level since finishing runner-up at Copperhead.
Anyone able to grab bet365's 300/1 (or 250/1 with eight places) about Lipsky should consider doing so but he's more like 125/1 generally and that's short enough for another player who is yet to win on the PGA Tour, historically the best way to begin eliminating potential Colonial candidates.
In that spirit we'll sign off with MICHAEL KIM, former winner of the John Deere and a DP World Tour champion too courtesy of the Open de France.
Both came at traditional, tree-lined courses and he's a definite fan of this one, having been sixth behind Grillo and then improved with every round to finish 16th last year.
Final thoughts from PGA:
— Michael S. Kim (@Mike_kim714) May 18, 2026
-I got a lot of set up questions so I’ll start there. In general I liked the set up. It was a very unique challenge with the greens and pin locations. But some holes like 8 yesterday was… aggressive. It’s a 205 yd shot into the wind where you had to hit…
Kim ranked third in strokes-gained off-the-tee for what was his best finish in months and that's potentially significant, as it's supported by several other performances here down the years. Given that tee shots have often been a weakness, perhaps there's something in his course suitability and the mixture of clubs he's able to hit that explains why he's so often stepped up markedly when playing in this event.
He'll need to again after a run of poor driving displays and his approach work has also been hit-and-miss, but the drop down in grade and move to Colonial are two potentially huge factors. Kim has played exclusively in Signature Events and majors since finishing second in the Texas Open in April, his form at this level for the year reading 31-MC-18-30-2 and including a good effort at Copperhead.
Kim is based in Texas and does have some strong Southwind and Sedgefield form to his name, so while a hard player to get a handle on sometimes, this looks a nice opportunity to capitalise on a clear step down in class at course he knows and likes. Much will depend on how many fairways he can hit and he's often done that better here than elsewhere.
Posted at 13:00 BST on 26/05/26
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