Ben Coley's golf betting tips: BMW International Open preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: BMW International Open

3pts e.w. Angel Ayora at 20/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

2pts e.w. Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen at 33/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1.5pts e.w. Matti Schmid at 45/1 (bet365, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Calum Hill at 55/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

0.5pt e.w. Filippo Celli at 400/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

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Another summer heatwave across Europe appeared to have a massive effect on last week's Open d'Italia, and I just wonder whether we might be saying the very same thing come the end of the BMW International Open.

Just as in Turin, here in Munich we have a reasonably tight, traditional, tree-lined golf course which at its most demanding tends to favour accurate players. Ewen Ferguson has won here, Jordan Smith has twice been second, Joost Luiten rather threw it away, and Dan Brown's performance 12 months ago was an inspired display of precision: first in fairways, first in greens, much too good.

With Kazuma Kobori third, Davis Bryant briefly promising to land us a 400/1 winner in fourth and Luiten alongside him, the message was pretty clear. That's been the formula at this golf course, increasingly so in recent years, and it might theoretically justify taking on a bunch of market principals who for the most part look to get on the offensive.

But that was true on paper in Italy and yet, with rough nowhere near as juicy as organisers would've liked and the weather perfect, accuracy rather went out of the window. Given that Eichenried offers a little more for long drivers, with an extra par-five and a driveable par-four that not everyone can go for, this hot summer might remove some of its defences too. Who knows, we may even has ditches running dry.

Ultimately they look quite similar tests so we can perhaps expect to see form carry over and that's good news for hat-trick-seeking Eugenio Chacarra and for favourite Joaquin Niemann, who was imperious from tee-to-green. However, the one I've had in mind for this is ANGEL AYORA and he gets the headline vote.

The young Spaniard with a swing to die for comes in here in red-hot form, with third place in the KLM Open followed by fifth last week. These were tournaments played under starkly contrasting conditions and I was particularly impressed with how he coped in the winds of Amsterdam, where his putter came to life at last.

That club remained a strength in Italy where, yes, he failed to really get involved over the weekend, but this course ought to suit even more and it's one he does know. In fact it's one of very few venues he's visited twice and while his form figures are uninspiring, he's hit the ball well, averaging about +1.5 strokes-gained per-round with his ball-striking only to struggle on and around the greens.

Ayora's short-game has been much better lately and the fact that he was fifth on a strong leaderboard last week despite driving the ball poorly by his standards is a plus. We've plenty of headroom there and, as discussed, I feel Eichenried is more suitable. He is one who can go after all four par-fives and the short 16th, which Brown and Smith both went after a couple of times last year.

Seeing Chacarra win again can't fail to inspire a player who is equally desperate to get to the PGA Tour where I'm convinced he'll become a genuine star and from 19th in the Race to Dubai, this could be the week we see him deliver on his undoubted potential. A handful of the other big names are attempting to qualify for the Open on Tuesday but he's focused on the here and now and rates a strong fancy.

Niemann is clearly the man to beat after backing up a mammoth effort in the US Open, where he received a penalty in round one and rallied to sneak into the top 10. He doesn't have the course experience of the other favourites but there's not anything especially complicated about Eichenried and, as discussed, the fact that he's tuned up in Italy is probably a positive.

He's respected along with Daniel Hillier, a major disappointment last week but capable of bouncing back. However, clear preference is for RASMUS NEERGAARD-PETERSEN, who can capitalise on a drop in grade from the PGA Tour.

It's fair to say things haven't gone to plan out there so far and at 118th in FedExCup points, Neergaard-Petersen needs results if he's to keep his card. To that end it's enormously encouraging that he's stuck to the plan and decided to come to Europe, a sign of his maturity and the faith he has in his own abilities.

Neergaard-Petersen no doubt recognises that it was this event which gave him an invite when he'd just turned pro in 2023 and he was so impressive in making the most of it, finishing seventh having sat second at halfway. Two years later, returning after a successful season on the HotelPlanner Tour, he started slowly but rallied to again sit close to the lead before a quiet Sunday and 14th place.

That's two very strong pieces of course form and adds to a fabulous record in Germany, where he twice won the German International Amateur, added another title on the HotelPlanner Tour, and boasts four top-15s in five. The sole exception was in the European Open when he wasn't a DP World Tour member and he still fared OK at that extremely demanding course.

Back here in Munich he should be a big threat as he's started playing better lately, making three cuts in a row since doing so in the PGA Championship. All it's taken is some putting improvement and suddenly he's stringing good rounds together, 10 of his last 12 under-par on the most competitive circuit in the sport.

He'll have loved seeing Viktor Hovland win on Monday, the Norwegian having been a guiding influence since they briefly crossed paths at college, and returning to his past history at Eichenried it's been built on the exceptional ball-striking we've come to expect. In eight rounds, four of them in the very earliest weeks of his pro career, he's gained about 16 strokes with his long-game, which is seriously high.

We saw how good Neergaard-Petersen is when he flew home in the DP World Tour Championship to earn PGA Tour status, then produced the gutsiest of pars to win the Australian Open, and I think he's a better player than everyone in this field bar the first four in the betting, who range from 9/1 to 18s. Hopefully he's ready to show it.

Over to Hill

South African duo Jayden Schaper and Casey Jarvis have both temporarily lost the plot on the greens, winner-in-waiting Oliver Lindell is playing 36 holes of Open qualifying on Tuesday, and I'm far from convinced when it comes to some of the LIV Golf guests. Sergio Garcia's strong course record might give him the edge but he's another who won't arrive in Munich until Wednesday.

If there are storms around it's possible these players go into the tournament cold so I'll head further down the market to chance CALUM HILL.

The Scot was a massive disappointment when fading from in front late in round two to an eventual 17th in Austria at the end of May, but that aside his form has a strong look to it. He has seven top-20s for the year which has him on track to better his standout 2021 campaign and represents a considerable step up on previous seasons.

They include two runner-up finishes, one of which he ought to have won in Bahrain, but a third DP World Tour title may not be far away if he continues to show the quality we've seen through the bag. Hill has always been a deadly putter on his day and he gives the ball a whack, but it's these more frequent flashes of strong iron play which really promise to take him to the next level.

He was good in all departments in Italy last week, only scraping through to the weekend but then climbing to 19th, and I'd say that goes down as a lovely way to prepare for a course that definitely suits. Hill was 17th here on debut then 10th in 2023, that despite recent form figures of MC-MC-WD, the following week's fourth place at the Belfry another positive sign as there's a strong connection between the two.

A decent 32nd in 2024 came after a missed cut and at a time when his long-game was not in great shape, while last year's missed cut was the product of a shocking putting display, the kind we seldom see him produce. Hill really ought to have sailed through to the weekend and in the form he's in now, I expect him to make amends.

All told he's gaining strokes in every department at this course and for someone who used to struggle quite badly for consistency, both overall and in particular with his approach work, there are some very good indications that this is a good one for him.

Then there's the fact that he's a past champion at Galgorm Castle, just like Brown and Ferguson. Three players have done the double, Dave Horsey being the other, but Ryan Fox, Daan Huizing and one or two more have come close. That's notable given obvious aesthetic similarities plus the fact that we've not seen much of the Northern Irish venue, nor was Eichenried even an annual stop until after the Covid pandemic.

Hill is at the right kind of course at the right time and I'm hopeful he can see it through for 72 holes.

Last week's selection Kazuma Kobori continues to catch the eye and was third here on debut, but he's another aiming to qualify for the Open. Whether or not he'd skip this should he earn that opportunity (I doubt it, personally), there's just no way it can be considered ideal preparation, particularly after a draining week in scorching heat down in Italy.

The same concern applies to Daniel Rodrigues, who reminds me a bit of Bryant a year ago except at a quarter of the price, so I'll chance FILIPPO CELLI instead.

Celli is a huge price here despite form figures of 31-9 at Eichenried, where seven of his eight rounds have been under-par. Like Hill, he also has some form at Galgorm Castle as he was seventh there right after turning professional in the summer of 2022, which really interests me.

It's been a tough return to the DP World Tour but his rookie campaign two years ago caught fire at exactly this time, his three top-10 finishes in a row covering the end of June and early July and culminating at Eichenried, where he stormed from 48th at halfway to an eventual ninth thanks to weekend rounds of 67-68.

And there have been some hints of promise lately. In fact, after hitting it better to be 17th in Austria he went off at about 100/1 for the KLM Open the following week only to have to withdraw for reasons I've not been able to unearth, and then went over to the US Open where he gained over 3.5 strokes from tee-to-green in 36 holes but couldn't buy a putt and missed the weekend by one.

Those performances all suggest something better is on the way and it looked for a little while like it might be in his national open, where he was five-under through 15 holes of round one. Truth he told he then struggled a little but at the prices, at a course we know he likes, I don't mind taking a small chance.

About Schmid

While I'll throw one dart at Celli given his history here, there's undeniably greater depth to these fields now we're in Europe and LIV Golf has gone AWOL. Last week saw a quality young talent who won last time defeat a PGA Tour player in Matt Wallace, with Niemann next. Chacarra had previously beaten Lindell and Austria winner Kota Kaneko is clearly very capable.

Those two spring stunners, Yurav Premlall and Richard Sterne, came either side of a major when fields were weaker and I'm keen not to stray too far from the classier types. That means Maximilian Steinlechner is overlooked despite the fact he's started to play very well and I'll avoid the speculative case for Albin Bergstrom after two top-20s in his last four starts.

Preference is to chance MATTI SCHMID, who six weeks ago played in the final group of a major championship and should relish this drop in grade.

Fourth place at Aronimink definitely had a freakish quality, not least because he was the best putter in the field, but it was Schmid's fourth top-10 finish since March and he's a very good player for this sort of level. That's underlined by a world ranking of 80th, not far off his career high of 65th.

Now, form figures of MC-MC-MC since the PGA Championship are troubling but he's gained strokes off the tee twice, as he has with his approaches, and it's really just two shockers with the putter we have to worry about. One came at Shinnecock, the other just days after the biggest round of his life. I can excuse them both.

And we have precedent for him coming here under similar circumstances and playing well. Last year he followed a play-off defeat at Colonial with a run of MC-MC-WD, but rocked up in Munich and finished seventh. In doing so, Schmid took his course record to 16 par-or-better rounds from 18 and his sole failure, back in 2022, saw him miss the cut by one despite having hit the ball very well.

I do think his length will be an asset and if Schmid's putting confidence returns on greens he's very familiar with, prices around the 50/1 mark could look very generous. As with Wallace in Italy and countless other players down the years, returning to the DP World Tour when you've been grinding on the PGA Tour can be all it takes.

Schmid's best yet, second place in Spain, came after months without reward in the US as did fourth in South Africa. Back at the scene of his first meaningful performance at this level, one he backed up soon after at Galgorm Castle, I like his chances.

Posted at 19:00 BST on 29/06/26

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