Ben Coley has made an excellent start to the year on the DP World Tour, with two more places including a 150/1 shot last week. He has six to follow in Bahrain.
Golf betting tips: Bahrain Championship
1.5pts e.w. Angel Ayora at 40/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1.5pts e.w. David Micheluzzi at 50/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Sam Bairstow at 50/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Haotong Li at 50/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Ivan Cantero at 80/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Kiradech Aphibarnrat at 125/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
Last year, the return of the Bahrain Championship to the DP World Tour paved the way for South Africa's Dylan Frittelli to do the same. The South African had lost his PGA Tour playing rights but, thanks to a new exemption category for anyone outside of the top 125 in FedEx Cup points, was able to take his place in the field. I'm not sure we can really say the rest is history given that there are hardened golf fans who don't even remember it happening, but he went on to win by two.
Twelve months on and Frittelli takes his place in the field as a fully-fledged member playing out of the winners' category, which meant he could contend for the riches of the Dubai Desert Classic a couple of weeks ago. Meanwhile, that category he benefited from allows others to attempt to resurrect their careers at the expense of some Qualifying School graduates, that last word now theoretical. A handful of them played on the Challenge Tour last week.
It's all a little dissatisfying and you have to wonder what the purpose of this category really is, or rather was. Given the safety net afforded to those who won PGA Tour cards via the Race to Dubai, as many as 15 players could struggle in the US this year but return next year on the DP World Tour. That doesn't have to be wrong – Frittelli for instance is a quality player – but perhaps it should be reflected elsewhere. The number of Q-School graduates went down slightly but not enough. Surely, clarity is best for everyone.
Our challenge is in theory a little more straightforward and there are some clear indicators as to what's needed here at Royal GC. In fact, they could hardly be clearer: hit it hard and far, ride your luck, and have some skill from inside 50 yards. Frittelli ranked fourth in strokes-gained off-the-tee despite spraying the ball all over Bahrain and the rankings of the other big-hitting members of the top five read 6-5-1-9. The players who ranked second and third both finished eighth, meaning the top six drivers all finished inside the top 10.
Frittelli is a long driver thanks to the Bryson-inspired speed work he did four or five years ago, which may not have helped his overall game. He's also a wild one and therefore doesn't meet the proper definition of a 'good' one. That's an important distinction. What makes a good driver around Valderrama does not make a good driver around here. At Royal GC good simply translates as long and it was long hitters who dominated here back in 2011, too.
This point is further emphasised by the fact that among the top seven players, not one of them hit more than 50% of fairways. They were hard to hit whoever you are, but not that hard. However, the punishment for missing them was not often severe, albeit with a heavy dose of fortune involved. I recall watching Frittelli get away with having no real sense of where his ball was going off the tee so if you've a soft spot for a powerhouse who can be undone by a wild swipe or three, this is probably the week to hope they get away with it.
There are some heritage DP World Tour venues which have long treated such players well, like Al Hamra, Dom Pedro and, to a lesser extent, Albatross. Even Marco Simone, in its short spell prior to hosting the Ryder Cup, tended to reward aggression more than it penalised waywardness. But while these courses might throw up the odd connection, it's the Singapore Classic which looks the best fit. That is massively favourable to long hitters like 2024 champion Jesper Svensson and even with just three leaderboards to join up, there are a few names who help us do that.
It's not just the fact that missing the fairway isn't harshly penalised that makes this a power-hitter's paradise, but the nature of having four par-fives plus holes 10 and 11, par-fours which combined come in at under 700 yards. The 10th produced more birdies and played easier than all holes bar the par-five ninth and going back to those short-game skills, when six holes might boil down to a pitch and a putt, it matters. The trouble with this particular category, as evidenced by Alejandro del Rey and Marcus Armitage last week, is that it's not always predictable.
Angel delight?
The top of the market is similar to last week's, only with Laurie Canter replacing Ryan Fox and David Puig half the price he was at Al Hamra. His chance looks strong but none of the four has course experience and I don't think we need to run afraid of them – in fact, I'd be quite happy to take them on and will begin with ANGEL AYORA.
This 20-year-old is going places. He has a swing to die for, hits the ball a long, long way, seemingly chips well and last week demonstrated that he's a very capable putter. As with so many youngsters in this day and age, getting the approach play part of the equation right will be key and if he does become a consistent wedge player, his potential is limitless.
In the here and now, he's arguably already the best driver in this field (Puig and Canter would have something to say about that, admittedly) having ranked 15th, 11th, fourth, first and second in strokes-gained off the tee in five DP World Tour starts. That does indeed have him top in strokes-gained off-the-tee and he's 11th in driving distance, too.
Last week's 27th at Al Hamra came despite a slow start as he shot 75 in round one, followed by a bogey-free 67, then weekend rounds of 70 and 69. Over those final 54 holes Ayora made just two bogeys, ending the tournament with two whacks to 10 feet at the closing par-five, before two putts made for a solid start to the new year.
And that last point is key: it was, for him, the start. Just two of the eventual top 15 were making their seasonal debuts, the other 13 all having played, mostly in the desert on similar golf courses. Ayora was also a debutant at an established course which had featured on the Challenge Tour before the DP World Tour, which champion del Rey had played before. Most players in this field have played zero, two, or four rounds at Royal GC.
So, he should sharpen up for that outing, he should be less handicapped by inexperience, and it's possible that while del Rey was a thrash-it-and-find-it champion, this golf course is even more suited to aggression off the tee. In that case, it would look perfect for Ayora who, by the way, won his Challenge Tour title at a golf course hardly anybody in the field knew well. Small things like that can make a difference.
Whether or not he knows or is inspired by del Rey's performance I don't know, but it's certainly plausible, and this is a player with the world at his feet. I want to be siding with him in weak fields on driver-heavy courses this year and, at 33-40/1, to my eyes this is the first of what could be a few opportunities, now that he's shaken off the rust.
Of those shorter in the market, only Sebastian Soderberg made real appeal and that's partly because he placed for us at a similar price last year. His flying finish at Al Hamra was a nice way to prepare for this return but should a chance arrive, it would be his first since that shocking finish to the Scandinavian Mixed, reason enough to tread carefully at what are relatively short odds.
Instead, I'm really keen on DAVID MICHELUZZI, a youngster well capable of winning at this level.
It's Micheluzzi's second season on the DP World Tour and he's started it very well, with fifth place in the Australian PGA and, more recently, eighth in the high-quality Dubai Desert Classic. Last week, he was 36th at Al Hamra, where he'd missed the cut on his sole previous visit, and that was only after a quiet final round.
Hopefully, we see more of this improvement on his second look at a course and there was enough to like about his first in Bahrain, where he was seven-under through 14 holes of the final round before dropping three shots to miss out on a top-10 finish. Again, that followed a missed cut so his form this time around is significantly stronger, as are his experience levels.
I like the fact he went on to be seventh in Singapore as it gives us that potential correlation and with three top-10s and a host of decent performances since then, he's now fully established on the circuit. In fact he ended up making it to the Abu Dhabi Championship, a really good effort all things considered.
David Micheluzzi's 139-yard putt sets a new World Record! 😳🔥 pic.twitter.com/FgibbfHlxs
— Sky Sports Golf (@SkySportsGolf) November 30, 2024
Micheluzzi is no monster off the tee but he's long enough and one thing he does have is a killer short-game, one of the best in the field in fact. I can therefore see him picking off those pitch-and-putt birdies and certainly, courses where there are a high number of scoring opportunities strike me as best, a comment which applies to the Emirates Course where there are six of them interspersed with 12 harder ones.
With very little wind in the forecast this could be a lower-scoring renewal versus last year, which I'd have down as a positive, and Micheluzzi can at least bag his third top-10 finish of the season.
SAM BAIRSTOW was a big eye-catcher at Al Hamra, passing Micheluzzi on Sunday with a closing 67. On Friday, his 65 was a full 11 shots lower than his opening round and over the closing 54 holes he was 13-under, which just two players bettered.
This has seen him attract early support but having shown the necessary improvement in his approach play, I think there's still plenty of juice in prices north of 40/1 given his obvious potential in what is his second season on the big tour.
As a rookie, Bairstow first tasted contention here in Bahrain where he was fourth through 54 holes, and the powerful left-hander went on to be third in the Singapore Classic, which he looked set to win before making bogey at the 16th. In the end, he was just one shot outside the play-off.
Bairstow also contended in Qatar, India, Belgium, the US and France in what was an excellent season which ended with 14th behind Rory McIlroy in Dubai, and while the new year began slowly, something appears to have clicked during his second trip to Al Hamra.
Interestingly, it was a strong finish at that course a year ago which preceded his eventual T23 here in Bahrain and I see no reason he can't work his way into the mix once more. If and when he does, Bairstow looks ready to win.
Wenyi Ding is another youngster with massive potential and he didn't do much wrong last week. Like Ayora, that was his return to action and a closing 69 sets him up well for this, with his performance in Singapore two years ago certainly eye-catching.
On balance I narrowly prefer HAOTONG LI, who looks exactly the kind of player this course will suit.
We saw evidence of that last week, where the Chinese ranked second in distance and first in greens despite missing more than 50% of fairways. I should say here that I don't believe the strokes-gained data to be wholly accurate – it says he was the best iron player and just about the worst putter – but it does give us a sense of what might have been, as he undoubtedly didn't putt well.
Haotong Li's wild par save in the desert 🏜️#HeroDubaiDesertClassic | #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/gVDpzx17if
— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) January 13, 2025
Li is nothing if not erratic but there's been a level of consistency to his results lately, dating back to a top-10 finish at the driver-heavy Dunhill Links. He also has form at correlating courses with third at Al Hamra, a win in Dubai and even two good performances in Portugal, the first and last of these certainly courses where you can go on the attack and ride your luck when it comes to wild drives.
Close to the lead for three days in Singapore last year, this three-time DP World Tour champion is a player I expect to love Royal GC and there's no doubt he's playing well enough to contend if he can avoid the worst of the trouble spots. With a good forecast and those ball-striking numbers from last week both positives, we'll just have to hope the putts drop.
Next is the player who's given me the biggest headache but on balance, it seems sensible to stick with IVAN CANTERO for a third week running.
The issue is of course his odds, which were 500/1 in Dubai, 150/1 last week and are now 80/1, but fifth place at Al Hamra merits the latest cut and the one thing I keep coming back to is this: Cantero was a very, very good amateur, and we're starting to see what he can do at last.
And I'm far from alone in believing big things are ahead. Here's what Tommy Fleetwood said after playing with Cantero in Dubai.
"I honestly know how disappointed he will feel coming off the final hole, especially with the way he finished after fighting so hard all day.
"I think he has a very promising future, he is a very powerful player, with a great attitude, a lovely person. Yes, I told him on the last hole, I really think he will have a very, very good year. He just needs to trust and believe in himself.
"I think he has a lot of talent and a lot of potential."
Tommy Fleetwood, la tercera cosa buena que le ha pasado a Iván Cantero en Dubái https://t.co/YVY24evgpd
— Jose Boissier (@jjbosy) January 20, 2025
Long off the tee, he was the best driver in the field when salvaging his card in Korea late last year, a brave performance which no doubt explains what's come since. He's made five cuts from five to begin the new campaign, despite at times not putting all that well, and throughout this he's been close to Ayora's level off the tee.
What really makes me feel like we have to stick with him is the fact that he's so good around the greens, making him appear a potentially perfect course fit. That's in fact the one category in which he's been top-25 in every start this season and at 10th overall, it's becoming a real strength. We saw that with three pitch-and-putt birdies on Sunday and many more over the first three rounds.
Certainly, last year's missed cut wouldn't bother me in the slightest as it was leg five in a run of seven in a row since earning his card. Now, since retaining it, he's made six in a row and having been the first name on my list owing to the fact that he looks such a good course fit, I can settle for 66/1 and bigger.
His compatriot Joel Moscatel hits it a long way, too, while Manuel Elvira is a more rounded driver who caught the eye. Of the two, Elvira would be more interesting not least because he was the halfway leader at the similar Al Hamra last year, a course where last week he made it four top-30 finishes in his last six starts. Another of those seems on the cards.
Nicolas Colsaerts made more appeal than he perhaps should have. His chipping has improved enormously down the years and as well as making the cut in both renewals of the Singapore Classic, he was 29th in this event last year. That was one of his best finishes of the season, the highlight of course coming at the Dunhill Links, and he missed the cut by one after a good rally last Friday.
But while victory for Colsaerts would be popular, I'm not sure it compares to the prospect of KIRADECH APHIBARNRAT completing his return to form with an overdue win – and I reckon it's perfectly possible.
Aphibarnrat was down the field here last year but it was his first start for a couple of months and he'd struggled throughout 2023. It's definitely worth upgrading for that reason and since then he's been second in Singapore, losing a play-off, before finishing eighth on his Al Hamra debut last week.
Those are two strong correlating form-lines and even his return 52nd in the Dubai Desert Classic looks good, as it was his sixth appearances at Emirates GC and so far his best is 51st. Given the event's elevated status now, pound-for-pound his latest start there goes down as a career-best.
Really feels like Aphibarnrat didn’t get the breaks in that playoff. The sort of breaks you could do with when you’re up against someone who’s driving it 50 yards past you on the designated playoff hole. Fair play to Svensson though, did what he needed to do.
— Sam Harrop (@sam_golf) March 24, 2024
Having also been fifth in the Australian Open in December, Aphibarnrat has made a strong start to the campaign, with his putter firing, his short-game as good as ever, and some encouraging signs of progress off the tee. And while never quite as wild as his swing may lead you to believe, certainly it should help to have the space a course like this affords you.
His generally strong desert record also includes top-10 finishes in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Dubai and Abu Dhabi and the Thai, who birdied six of the closing seven holes last week, might just pay us back for the heartbreaking play-off defeat at a similar price in Singapore.
Posted at 1730 GMT on 27/01/25
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