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Newcastle
Newcastle enter this fixture with strong underlying numbers and a clear upward trend in performance. Their projected expected goals (xG) for this match sits around 1.45, while Manchester City come in at approximately 2.05 xG.
Although they trail City in the metrics, Newcastle’s figures still point to a side capable of creating meaningful chances — especially at St James’ Park.
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Newcastle’s attacking output remains balanced, with multiple contributors capable of fashioning and finishing opportunities.
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Their home form continues to be a major advantage: intensity, pressing, and crowd momentum often elevate their chance creation beyond baseline metrics.
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Despite City’s statistical edge, the gap between xG for and xG against for Newcastle suggests they can stay competitive — provided they take chances when they arrive.
Key metrics to note:
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Newcastle’s predicted 1.45 xG implies they should be capable of at least one goal under average finishing.
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City’s defensive line allows fewer big chances than most, but Newcastle tend to elevate their shot quality at home.
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While Newcastle are not favourites on paper, the numbers indicate they can pose consistent attacking threats, particularly in transitions and set-piece situations.
Manchester City
Manchester City arrive with the stronger statistical profile, as expected. Their projected ~2.05 xG highlights their ability to manufacture high-quality chances across virtually any type of match scenario.
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City traditionally perform well away at Newcastle, often dictating tempo early and sustaining long spells of possession.
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Their recent form mirrors their metrics: consistent chance creation, strong defensive structure, and reliable finishing from multiple points within the attack.
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Newcastle’s intensity may challenge City, but the model suggests City will still generate the clearer opportunities.
From a metrics perspective:
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With ~2.0 xG, City should expect to generate multiple big chances, especially through central combinations and wide overloads.
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Newcastle’s defensive risk is elevated here due to the gulf in predicted attacking output.
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City’s ball retention and territorial control typically force opponents into lower-quality shots — another factor contributing to the xG gap.
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Head-to-Head & Context
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Manchester City have dominated recent meetings, with Newcastle struggling to establish control or limit City’s shot volume.
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Both historical data and current projections point toward City as favourites.
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The xG gap (2.05 vs 1.45) suggests City should not only enjoy more possession but also produce superior chance quality across the 90 minutes.
What to Expect
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Manchester City will likely take charge of possession, dictate rhythm, and use controlled pressure to create space in Newcastle’s defensive shape.
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Newcastle’s path to success likely involves transitions, pressing triggers, and capitalising on moments when City overcommit. Their 1.45 xG projection suggests the model expects them to create at least one or two notable chances.
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Clean sheet probability leans toward City given their defensive metrics, but Newcastle’s home form complicates that picture.
The Numbers
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Manchester City average 64% possession across their recent league matches.
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They have scored 29 goals in their last 10 competitive games.
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Erling Haaland has contributed to 14 of those (11 goals, 3 assists).
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Newcastle average 14.1 shots per game at St James’ Park compared to City’s 16.7 overall.
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City matches have seen Over 2.5 Goals land in four of their last five fixtures.
Key Players to Watch
- Bruno Guimarães (Newcastle)
The tempo-setter. If Newcastle are to get joy in transitions, it will likely come through his press resistance and progressive passing. - Erling Haaland (Manchester City)
City’s focal point. His presence alone boosts City’s xG, and against a Newcastle defence missing key personnel, he’ll expect multiple high-quality opportunities.
Claim 50/1 odds on over 0.5 goals in Newcastle vs Man City
When is Newcastle vs Man City?
The Premier League fixture between Newcastle and Man City takes place on Saturday 21st November, kick off is at 5:30pm GMT.
Where is Newcastle vs Man City taking place?
The match is being played at the home of Newcaste United, St James' Park.
Where can I watch Newcastle vs Man City live?
The game is being broadcast live on Sky Sports Main Event, with coverage starting at 5pm GMT.
What are the odds for Newcastle vs Man City?
According to Paddy Power's latest odds on the Newcastle vs Man City match result market:
Newcastle to win - 5/2
Draw - 13/5
Man City to win - 1/1
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