Can Jake Paul beat Anthony Joshua? We break down the 'Problem Child's' tactical path to victory, from the 22ft ring to the Andy Ruiz blueprint.

Jake Paul's Strategy vs Anthony Joshua: How the Underdog Can Win

Updated on: 19th December 2025, 19:50

Paul vs Joshua: Latest Betting Odds & Price Boosts

Looking for the best value on tonight's fight? Major UK bookmakers have released enhanced price boosts for Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua. These "Judgment Day" offers are ideal for new customers looking to back their pick.

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The 22ft "Safety Zone"

On paper, Jake Paul (12-1) vs Anthony Joshua (28-4) looks like a mismatch. However, Paul’s camp has secured a vital tactical advantage: a 22x22ft ring. This is 21% larger than the standard 20ft professional ring, and it is the foundation of Paul’s strategy.

The "Bicycle" Tactic: Paul’s goal is to avoid a fire-fight in the opening three rounds. By using the extra perimeter space to circle and reset, he aims to force the 243lb Joshua to hunt him. The longer the fight remains a "cat and mouse" game, the more Joshua’s championship-tuned cardiovascular system is put to the test in the humid Miami heat.

The Andy Ruiz Blueprint: Timing the Jab

Paul’s coaches have reportedly spent months studying Andy Ruiz Jr.’s 2019 upset of Joshua. Ruiz didn't win by being stronger; he won by timing Joshua’s lead hand.

The Overhand Right: Paul’s signature "equaliser" is his overhand right. If he can slip Joshua’s jab and land that looping shot—the same one that finished Tyron Woodley—he has a genuine "puncher’s chance" to stagger the former champion.
Psychological Pressure: If Paul survives the early onslaught and lands even one significant shot, he hopes to trigger the hesitation that has occasionally surfaced in Joshua's game following his losses to Ruiz and Oleksandr Usyk.

Taking the Fight into "Deep Water"

Joshua is accustomed to 12-round championship tempos, but he has occasionally "gassed out" when forced to work at an uncomfortable pace. By making the early rounds frustrating and "messy," Paul hopes to drag a fatigued Joshua into the 7th and 8th rounds.

"I don’t need to be better than AJ for 24 minutes," Paul stated at the final press conference. "I just need to be better than him for one second. One lazy jab, and I'm changing the world."

The "Nothing to Lose" Mentality

As the 6/1 underdog, Paul carries zero professional pressure. Joshua, conversely, is expected to deliver a clinical, early knockout to protect his 2026 plans for Tyson Fury. If the fight passes the half-way mark and Paul is still standing, the mental "ticking clock" begins to favour the younger man.

Watch the Drama Unfold: The main event begins at approximately 3:30 AM GMT tonight, live on Netflix. British fans: Please ensure you have a valid TV Licence to stream the event live.

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