Sky Bet are offering 50/1 on Anthony Joshua by knockout and 70/1 by decision vs Jake Paul. We compare both offers and explain which represents better value.

Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua betting offer: AJ dual outcomes by Sky Bet

Updated on: 19th December 2025, 19:55

Sky Bet Dual Sign Up Offer: 70/1 on Joshua to win on points/decision or 50/1 on Joshua to win by KO/TKO

Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua: Which Sky Bet Offer Is Better – 50/1 Knockout or 70/1 Decision?

Sky Bet’s dual offer on Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua gives bettors a clear choice:
50/1 on Anthony Joshua to win by knockout, or 70/1 on Joshua to win by points or decision.

Both prices are eye-catching. Both are tied to the same fighter. But they are built on very different fight narratives. The key question is not which price is bigger, but which outcome best matches how this fight is likely to unfold.

This preview breaks down both options and explains which offer looks stronger — and why.

Understanding the Two Outcomes

At a glance, the two offers represent opposite ends of the Joshua spectrum.

The Sky Bet dual offer:

50/1 – Joshua to win by KO/TKO
70/1 – Joshua to win by points/decision

On the surface, knockout feels instinctive and decision feels contrarian. But boxing — especially in crossover events — often rewards the less obvious route.

The Case for the 50/1 Knockout Offer

Joshua’s knockout reputation is well established, and it’s easy to see why many will be drawn to the 50/1 price.

Why the KO narrative is popular:

Joshua has stopped the majority of his opponents
Heavyweight power changes fights instantly
Paul has never faced an elite heavyweight puncher
A single defensive lapse could end the contest

From a pure boxing perspective, Joshua landing cleanly on Paul carries obvious danger. If the fight becomes chaotic or Paul takes risks early, a knockout can come quickly.

Where the KO case weakens:

Joshua no longer rushes finishes
He has become more risk-aware in recent fights
A quick knockout offers little upside for Joshua himself

The knockout is possible — but it requires Joshua to accelerate the fight rather than manage it.

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The Case for the 70/1 Decision Offer

The decision market is often overlooked in heavyweight fights, but the specific dynamics here make it far more credible than the odds imply.

Why a points win is realistic:

Joshua can dominate rounds without forcing exchanges
Paul is likely to prioritise survival
Clinching and slow pacing reduce stoppage chances
Shorter fight formats increase decision probability

Joshua doesn’t need knockdowns to win rounds. Clean jabs, control of distance and heavier single shots can quickly build a decisive lead on the scorecards.

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Tactical Incentives Favour a Decision

When choosing between the two offers, it’s important to consider Joshua’s incentives — not just his abilities.

From Joshua’s perspective:

A safe win matters more than a spectacular one
There is reputational risk in unnecessary exchanges
Control limits the chance of an upset moment
A decision win still proves the point

In crossover fights, the favourite often opts for risk minimisation, especially once control is established. That naturally pushes the fight toward the judges.

Comparing Probability vs Price

The crucial distinction between the two offers is not which outcome is more likely — but how the prices compare to their true probability.

Knockout at 50/1:

Likely outcome: plausible
Requires: escalation, openings, commitment
Risk: depends on a decisive moment

Decision at 70/1:

Likely outcome: overlooked but logical
Requires: discipline, control, patience
Risk: low once Joshua is ahead

In other words:

KO relies on something happening
Decision relies on something not happening

That difference matters.

Data-Led View of Fight Control

Looking at Joshua’s recent performances and Paul’s tendencies strengthens the decision argument.

Key indicators:

Joshua has gone the distance in controlled fights before
He is comfortable winning rounds without chasing finishes
Paul has shown durability and defensive caution
Judges reward clean work and ring control

If Joshua wins most rounds without taking risks, the fight naturally drifts toward a decision — regardless of pre-fight expectations.

Which Offer Suits Different Bettors?

This dual offer works because it caters to different betting mindsets.

The 50/1 KO offer suits:

Bettors chasing a highlight moment
Those expecting an early finish
Fans backing raw power over control

The 70/1 decision offer suits:

Bettors reading the fight tactically
Those backing discipline over drama
Value-seekers looking beyond the obvious

If you believe Joshua boxes conservatively and professionally, the decision price stands out.

So, Which Is the Better Offer?

Both prices are generous, but when weighed against likely fight behaviour, the 70/1 decision offer edges it.

Why the decision offer wins the value argument:

It aligns with Joshua’s recent mindset
It benefits from Paul’s survival-first approach
It doesn’t rely on a single decisive exchange
The price overcompensates for public bias

The knockout is exciting. The decision is logical. And logic is often where betting value lives.

Final Verdict: Value Over Instinct

Sky Bet’s dual offer presents a rare opportunity to choose between two enhanced outcomes on the same fighter. While the knockout will attract attention, the 70/1 on Anthony Joshua to win by points or decision better reflects how this fight could realistically play out.

In a contest where control, composure and risk management are likely to define the night, the bigger price may also be the smarter one to take.

Terms and Conditions – Joshua to win by KO/TKO

This promotion is only available to individuals aged 18 years and over, who have registered as new customers of Sky Betting and Gaming. For the avoidance of doubt, any customers who currently or have previously held an account with Sky Bet, Sky Vegas, Sky Casino, Sky Bingo or Sky Poker will be considered existing customers.
Customers who are, or become, self-excluded from Sky Betting and Gaming products or have had restrictions placed on their account during the Promotional Period may not be eligible to participate in this promotion.
This promotion will run from 09:00 on Wednesday, 17th December 2025 until 04:00 on Saturday, 20th December 2025, (the “Promotional Period”).
To qualify for this promotion, new customers must sign up through the Enhanced Price Boost welcome offer, make a minimum deposit of £5, and place a bet of £1 (the "Staking Requirements") as their first bet on “Anthony Joshua KO/TKO” as the method of victory in the match Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua, on Saturday 20th December (the “Bet”) at normal odds.
Where the bet wins, the winnings from enhanced odds will be credited as five £10 bet tokens, (the "Free Bets"). If the bet loses (Joshua does not win by KO/TKO) customers will receive £10 in free bet credits as one £10 bet token.
Customers will also receive the winnings in cash that would have been credited had the Bet been placed at market odds. The odds will be those that were live on Sky Bet at the time the Staking Requirements were met.
Only your first bet with Sky Bet will count towards this offer. Any subsequent bets will not be eligible.
To meet the Staking Requirement, you must bet £1.00 in a single bet. Greater stakes or an accumulation of smaller stakes will not count.
Free Bets are non-withdrawable and Free Bet stakes are not included in any returns.
Free Bets can be redeemed against any single or each-way market, excluding virtual markets, and cannot be used in conjunction with any other offer.
Free Bets expire 7 days after crediting.
To qualify for this promotion and receive any associated Free Bets, bonuses or rewards, all Staking Requirements must be met within 30 days of the account registration date.
This offer can only be claimed once per customer.
Customers using Neteller or Skrill will not qualify.
Sky Betting and Gaming reserves the right acting reasonably to withhold, restrict or cancel this offer from individual account holders in accordance with its eligibility, promotion abuse and internal risk policies at its reasonable discretion.
Sky Betting and Gaming reserves the right, acting reasonably to change, withdraw or increase the availability of and/or value of rewards throughout the Promotional Period at any time. This will not impact players who have already started wagering under a promotion.
All Sky Betting and Gaming general rules and terms apply.
For customers using Euros, the Staking Requirements and Free Bets will be at an exchange rate of £1/€1.
Sky Betting and Gaming General Promotion Terms apply to this promotion and can be viewed here.

Terms and Conditions – Joshua to Win by Points/Decision

This promotion is only available to individuals aged 18 years and over who have registered as new customers of Sky Betting and Gaming. For the avoidance of doubt, any customers who currently or have previously held an account with Sky Bet, Sky Vegas, Sky Casino, Sky Bingo or Sky Poker will be considered existing customers.
Customers who are, or become, self-excluded from Sky Betting and Gaming products or have had restrictions placed on their account during the Promotional Period may not be eligible to participate in this promotion.
This promotion will run from 09:00 on Wednesday, 17th December 2025 until 04:00 on Saturday, 20th December 2025, (the “Promotional Period”).
To qualify for this promotion, new customers must sign up through the Enhanced Price Boost welcome offer, make a minimum deposit of £5, and place a bet of £1 (the "Staking Requirements") as their first bet on “Anthony Joshua Points or Decision” as the method of victory in the match Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua, on Saturday 20th December (the “Bet”) at normal odds.
Where the bet wins, the winnings from enhanced odds will be credited as seven £10 bet tokens, (the "Free Bets"). If the bet loses (Joshua does not win by Points or Decision) customers will receive £10 in free bet credits as one £10 bet token.
Customers will also receive the winnings in cash that would have been credited had the Bet been placed at market odds. The odds will be those that were live on Sky Bet at the time the Staking Requirements were met.
Only your first bet with Sky Bet will count towards this offer. Any subsequent bets will not be eligible.
To meet the Staking Requirement, you must bet £1.00 in a single bet. Greater stakes or an accumulation of smaller stakes will not count.
Free Bets are non-withdrawable and free bet stakes are not included in any returns.
Free Bets can be redeemed against any single or each-way market, excluding virtual markets, and cannot be used in conjunction with any other offer.
Free Bets expire 7 days after crediting.
To qualify for this promotion and receive any associated Free Bets, bonuses or rewards, all Staking Requirements must be met within 30 days of the account registration date.
This offer can only be claimed once per customer.
Customers using Neteller or Skrill will not qualify.
Sky Betting and Gaming reserves the right acting reasonably to withhold, restrict or cancel this offer from individual account holders in accordance with its eligibility, promotion abuse and internal risk policies at its reasonable discretion.
Sky Betting and Gaming reserves the right, acting reasonably to change, withdraw or increase the availability of and/or value of rewards throughout the Promotional Period at any time. This will not impact players who have already started wagering under a promotion.
All Sky Betting and Gaming general rules and terms apply.
For customers using Euros, the Staking Requirements and Free Bets will be at an exchange rate of £1/€1.
Sky Betting and Gaming General Promotion Terms apply to this promotion and can be viewed here.

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