Paddy Power Sign Up Offer: Get 80/1 odds on Chelsea to beat Arsenal

Updated on: 30th November 2025, 11:17

Get this Paddy Power Welcome Offer - Chelsea 80/1 to win

Kick off: 16:30 GMT

Venue: Stamford Bridge

Big Picture: Stakes & Context

This London derby carries huge weight — and for Chelsea, it’s a golden chance to send a statement. After a stop-start opening to the season, the Blues are finally showing momentum under Enzo Maresca, tightening up defensively and finding fluency going forward.

Arsenal arrive as favourites on paper, but their recent away inconsistencies and mounting injury issues leave the door wide open. And at Stamford Bridge, history shows these fixtures often tilt towards the home side when Chelsea bring intensity.

Advanced predictive models — similar to Opta-style simulations — still lean toward Arsenal on reputation, but Chelsea’s improving performances suggest those probabilities are skewed. Bookmakers giving Chelsea outsider odds sets up enormous value compared to the match-up’s real competitive balance.

With both teams under pressure — Arsenal to keep pace at the top, Chelsea to break into the upper tiers — this derby promises aggression, tactical swings, and emotional volatility.

Recent Form & Head-to-Head Trends

Chelsea: Quietly building form

Chelsea have steadied the ship in recent weeks, tightening defensively and showing far more control in possession. Their home form is trending upwards, with strong underlying metrics: more chances created, fewer big chances conceded, and improved pressing structure.

Arsenal: Strong, but vulnerable away

Arsenal’s performances have fluctuated outside the Emirates. Recent narrow results and late goals needed to rescue points show cracks, especially with several players missing.

Head-to-Head

Chelsea traditionally perform well at home in this derby. Last season’s fiery 2–2 at Stamford Bridge showed Arsenal struggle when Chelsea dictate tempo and force transitions.

Arsenal have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last eight league visits to the Bridge — and Chelsea have scored multiple goals in five of those matches.

Team News & Injuries

Chelsea

Reece James nearing full fitness and expected to feature — a massive boost in leadership and ball progression.
Christopher Nkunku in contention after training all week.
Wesley Fofana remains out long-term.
Enzo Fernández managing fatigue but expected to start.
Cole Palmer fit and remains Chelsea’s creative hub.
Noni Madueke also available after recovering from muscle tightness.

Chelsea are not at full strength, but the return of key players — especially James and Nkunku — significantly elevates their attacking ceiling.

Arsenal

Martin Ødegaard still doubtful with his MCL issue, leaving a major creative void.
Gabriel Magalhães struggling with a thigh injury and expected to miss out.
Bukayo Saka playing through discomfort in a lingering issue.
Takehiro Tomiyasu managing muscle fatigue.
Gabriel Jesus may only be fit enough for a brief cameo.

Arsenal’s absences in midfield and defence could disrupt their structure, pressing triggers, and build-up — areas Chelsea can exploit.

Tactical Preview & Key Battles

Chelsea’s Approach

Expect Maresca to set the tone with:

Controlled possession phases
Aggressive pressing traps
Quick central combinations through Palmer and Nkunku
Overloads created by James and Chilwell wide

Chelsea’s strength is in transitions — and Arsenal’s weakened backline is vulnerable to quick switches and high-tempo breaks.

Without Ødegaard, Arsenal may struggle to manage Chelsea’s press, giving the Blues opportunities to win the ball in dangerous zones.

Arsenal’s Approach

Arteta may opt for:

Slower, more cautious buildup
Heavy reliance on wide overloads
Protecting a makeshift defence

They will aim to avoid chaotic moments, but Chelsea’s tempo could force them into uncomfortable territory. Arsenal will likely lean on Saka’s individual quality — but with him not fully fit, their attacking sharpness is unpredictable.

Key Battle: Midfield Control & Transitions

If Chelsea dominate central areas, they can dictate tempo and create consistent transitional threats.

Enzo Fernández vs Jorginho
Chelsea’s intensity and vertical passing can trouble Arsenal’s deeper midfielders.
Palmer & Nkunku vs Arsenal Backline
Arsenal’s defensive absences make this matchup decisive.

Chelsea winning these duels significantly increases their chances of a statement victory.

Players to Watch

Cole Palmer

Chelsea’s creative brain — excellent between the lines and decisive in the final third, could make his return from injury this weekend.

Christopher Nkunku

If he plays, even for 30 minutes, he instantly raises Chelsea’s attacking threat with movement, finishing, and combinations.

Nicolas Jackson

His pace and physicality could overwhelm Arsenal’s weakened central defence.

Bukayo Saka

Arsenal will rely heavily on him — but his fitness issues reduce his cutting edge.

Prediction & Betting Angle

Analytical Take

Market odds strongly favour Arsenal, but when factoring injuries, form progression, and the specific dynamics of Chelsea at home, the true probability is far more balanced.

Chelsea’s tactical setup, returning stars, and home advantage give them a genuine chance to upset the odds.

Paddy Power New Customer Offer (80/1)

Paddy Power are offering 80/1 on Chelsea to win for new customers — enormous value given:

Arsenal’s key absences
Chelsea’s recent improvements
Stamford Bridge advantage
Tactical matchups leaning towards Chelsea’s strengths

New customers who sign up and place a qualifying bet will receive the enhanced payout as free bet builders.

This is a value opportunity where the promotional price far exceeds Chelsea’s realistic chances.

My Verdict

Chelsea to win, either 2–1 or 3–1, feels entirely plausible.

Chelsea’s transitions vs a weakened Arsenal defence
Potential impact of Nkunku
Arsenal lacking Ødegaard’s control
Stamford Bridge factor

An alternative angle: Chelsea to win & both teams to score also fits the match dynamics.

Claim 80/1 Offer on Chelsea to win

What to Watch During the Game

First 20 minutes: Can Chelsea impose their press early?
Midfield duels: Fernández & Caicedo vs Arsenal’s patched unit.
Full-back influence: James and Chilwell could be decisive.
Closing stages: If tight late on, Chelsea’s bench depth may be the difference.

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Summary

Stakes: Chelsea aim to ascend the table; Arsenal under pressure to keep pace at the top.
Team news: Chelsea regaining key players; Arsenal missing major creative and defensive options.
Tactics: Chelsea to press, transition, and exploit gaps; Arsenal needing control without Ødegaard.
Prediction: Chelsea to win, likely 2–1.
Betting highlight: 80/1 new-customer offer on Chelsea to win — exceptional value given matchup dynamics.

Paddy Power Sign Up Offer: Terms and Conditions

Who can take part?

New customers only. Available to residents of the UK & Republic of Ireland.

How & when can I qualify?

Open a new account using promo codeYFBDER
Deposit a minimum of £5 by Pay by Bank, Debit Cards or Apple Pay.
Place a max £1 bet on the Match odds market on Chelsea to beat Arsenal in the English Premier League match on Sunday, November 30th.
Cashed Out, Partially Cashed Out and Power Price bets will not count towards the promotion. If you place a qualifying bet and subsequently use Cash Out on the bet, you will no longer be eligible for the promotion.

What can I win?

If your bet is successful, you will be paid in cash based on the normal price on site and will have the extra amount, bringing the bet up to the cumulative 80/1 payout, credited in free bet builders

When will I get my prize?

You will receive your Free bet builders after your qualifying bet settles. Free bet builders are valid for 7 days.

What else do I need to know?

Best odds guaranteed does not apply to bets placed with a free bet, or partial free bet.
You can use part of your free bets and save the rest for later as long as you use it before they expire. Stakes are not returned with winnings if your free bet wins. Your winnings will be credited to your main wallet.
If we find that you have taken part in this promotion using a duplicate account or that you have used more than one account to participate, we reserve the right to withhold your free bets and any winnings earned on the duplicate account.
Deposits made with e-wallets including: PayPal, Skrill, Paysafe and Neteller will not count towards this promotion.
The offer excludes the following bet types: Canadian, Goliath, Heinz, Lucky 15, Lucky 31, Lucky 63, Patent, Super Heinz, Trixie & Yankee.

Other essential stuff:

Paddy Power reserves the right in its discretion to exclude and/or limit the availability of the offer to certain customers.
The full terms and conditions of Paddypower.com also apply to this offer.

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