xG Premier League Review: Second fixtures in Gameweek 29 scorelines according to expected goals

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

• We attempt to rank each match result by comparing the actual result against the range of possible game outcomes that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created by each side in the game.
• This is scaled from 0 to 100, where 100 represents those occasions where the process most closely mirrors the real scoreline and lower scores indicate a match where the scoreline is not fully reflected in the balance of chances created.

WEDNESDAY - Jake Osgathorpe

West Ham 1-5 Newcastle

• Infogol xG: 2.40 - 0.93
• Fairness rating: 84.23
• Scorers: Zouma 40' | Wilson 6' & 46', Joelinton 13' & 90', Isak 82'

Newcastle ran riot at the London Stadium, backing up their impressive win at the weekend over Manchester United to maintain their top four push.

The Magpies have been relentlessly good from an underlying numbers standpoint this season, and especially since the break, with this game the 11th time in 13 league games they have won the xG battle.

Their attack is purring, racking up 1.75 xGF+ in 10 of those contests too, so a high rate of chance creation continues to flow, which is a major positive for Eddie Howe's men.

This game was also the seventh time in 13 they have allowed less than 1.0 xGA, again just highlighting that the levels they are hitting really are elite.

West Ham's five game unbeaten run at home came to a crushing end, with the Hammers comfortably out-played on the night.

Manchester United 1-0 Brentford

• Infogol xG: 1.26 - 0.66
• Fairness rating: 84.72
• Scorers: Rashford 27'

Manchester United scored their first league goal and ended a three match winless run with a hard-fought victory over Brentford.

Erik ten Hag's side have shown major weaknesses defensively of late, but they held a good Bees team to just 0.66 xG on the night.

The game was ultimately a tale of two 'big chances' (0.35+ xG), one that was taken (Rashford, 41%) and one that wasn't (Schade, 43%).

All the rest of the 22 shots taken in the game were of a low-probability, as defences were on top at Old Trafford.

The win moves United three points clear of Tottenham, with a game in hand, in the race for the top four.

TUESDAY - Tom Carnduff

Leeds 2-1 Nottingham Forest

• Infogol xG: 2.40 - 0.93
• Fairness rating: 92.37
• Scorers: Harrison 20', Sinisterra 45+1' | Mangala 12'

Leeds secured a crucial and deserved win over Nottingham Forest which moved them up to 13th in the Premier League table.

Orel Mangala had fired the visitors into an early lead, only for Jack Harrison to hit back shortly after with the biggest chance of the contest (0.56 xG).

Luis Sinisterra then put Leeds ahead in first-half added time, running in from the left to find the far corner with a curled effort.

Such was the brilliance of the finish that it was one of the lower rated chances of the game - holding an xG rating of just 0.05.

Patrick Bamford would have felt he should have added to the goals, with his five efforts combining for a total of 1.07 xG.

Leeds dominated the chances, with victory continuing Javi Gracia's fine start to life at the club - he's collected ten points from a possible 18 across his first six games at the helm.

The Whites had been going at 0.83 points per game prior to his appointment, averaging 1.67 since then.

Chelsea 0-0 Liverpool

• Infogol xG: 1.98 - 0.24
• Fairness rating: 62.40
• Scorers:

A new head coach but the same story for Chelsea, who were wasteful in front of goal as they drew 0-0 with Liverpool at Stamford Bridge.

Kai Havertz had the hosts' two biggest chances of the game, but he was unable to convert as the home fans were once again left frustrated.

Mateo Kovacic also had a couple of great opportunities to strike but the better of his efforts sailed over the crossbar.

Havertz thought he had finally given Chelsea the lead in the second-half, only for VAR to intervene and rule it out.

His effort one-on-one was saved by Alisson, with the ball bouncing up and deflecting off the forward and into the net. However, replays highlighted how the ball had clearly struck his arm.

Chelsea have had 39 shots across their last two games - a combined xG of 4.47 - but failed to score in either.

Bournemouth 0-2 Brighton

• Infogol xG: 1.51 - 2.50
• Fairness rating: 75.60
• Scorers: Ferguson 28', Enciso 90-1'

Brighton continued their brilliant season by moving up to sixth in the table with a 2-0 win away at struggling Bournemouth.

Evan Ferguson's first-half strike gave the visitors the lead, with substitute Julio Enciso securing the points in the final minutes.

It was a delightful backheel on the spin from Ferguson to put the Seagulls ahead in style, although the hosts had their share of good chances before the break.

Hamed Traorè was unable to convert from inside the area not long after the visitors had gone ahead, with Dominic Solanke also failing to strike minutes into the second-half.

At the other end, Ferguson came close to doubling the advantage with a second-half effort of his own - a chance equal to that of his first (both 0.46 xG).

But it was Enciso who finally got the second, converting the biggest opportunity of the game (0.77 xG).

Leicester 1-2 Aston Villa

• Infogol xG: 0.88 - 1.08
• Fairness rating: 84.93
• Scorers: Barnes 35' | Watkins 24', Traoré 87'

Aston Villa's brilliant turnaround under Unai Emery continued with a 2-1 win away at relegation-threatened Leicester.

Ollie Watkins and Bertrand Traoré struck for the visitors, who are now well in the hunt for European football next season.

Watkins' great form in front of goal continued when he fired Villa ahead with 24 minutes on the clock.

It was their biggest chance of the contest (0.39 xG) and their only 'big chance' of the game (one rated at 0.35 xG or higher).

Harvey Barnes hit back with a wonderful effort as half-time approached. Connecting with Wout Faes' long ball forward, his first touch took him beyond Ashley Young before a curled shot found the far corner.

The visitors were looking the more likely to score before Traoré struck from distance, a chance rated at a low 0.03 xG.

The result means that Villa now sit 7th in the Premier League table, although they have played two games more than Brighton above them.

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