xG Premier League Review: Gameweek 27 scorelines according to expected goals

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

• We attempt to rank each match result by comparing the actual result against the range of possible game outcomes that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created by each side in the game.
• This is scaled from 0 to 100, where 100 represents those occasions where the process most closely mirrors the real scoreline and lower scores indicate a match where the scoreline is not fully reflected in the balance of chances created.

Newcastle 2-1 Wolves

• Infogol xG: 2.51-0.88
• Fairness rating: 83.43
• Isak 26', Almirón 79' | Hee-Chan 70'

Newcastle boss Eddie Howe was rewarded for his brave decision to make five changes to his starting line-up, including all of his front three, as the Magpies dominated Wolves at St James' Park to end their two-month wait for a Premier League win.

They are now up to fifth in the table, just four points behind Tottenham and with two games in hand.

Despite displaying superiority throughout, and taking an early lead thanks to record signing Alexander Isak's superb header, it required a late goal from Miguel Almiron only minutes after coming off the bench to secure victory.

A rare moment of slack defending had briefly allowed Wolves to restore parity through their own substitute Hwang Hee-Chan, who was able to pass into an almost empty net from close range when handed the best chance of the entire game according to xG (0.56).

That opportunity accounted for 64% of the xG the visitors created across the entire match - testament to the dominant display of Newcastle.

Fulham 0-3 Arsenal

• Infogol xG: 0.65-2.12
• Fairness rating: 83.43
• Gabriel 21', Martinelli 26', Odegaard 45'+2

Arsenal produced an efficient first-half display to sweep Fulham aside, recording a fifth straight Premier League win and re-establishing their five-point advantage over Manchester City at the top of the table.

Since losing at home to City on February 15, the end of a three-game blip both in terms of underlying numbers and results (they took just a point), the Gunners have displayed outstanding performance levels, averaging 1.36 xGD (expected goal difference) per game.

They never looked like slipping up against the Cottagers.

Having already had one goal ruled out for offside after a VAR check Mikel Arteta's team scored twice more before the half-hour mark, Gabriel heading in from a corner and Gabriel Martinelli at the back post following a Leandro Trossard cross, before Martin Odegaard was given far too much time in the box to pick his spot and fire in a third in stoppage time.

Fulham were restricted to just two attempts on goal (a total xG of 0.08) in that opening period, both from outside the box and fared little better after the break despite the Gunners noticeably managing their efforts in a clinical performance.

Man Utd 0-0 Southampton

• Infogol xG: 1.09-1.40
• Fairness rating: 92.31

Ten-man Manchester United and Southampton were both forced to settle for what was a fair point at Old Trafford.

Casemiro’s early red card - which followed a VAR review for a challenge on Carlos Alcaraz - meant Erik ten Hag's side always faced an uphill battle, especially as bottom club Southampton produced an impressive display.

Saints went close to forcing victory too, with Theo Walcott's close-range header (0.46) the best chance of the game according to xG. He was denied by an outstanding David de Gea save.

But the closest either side came was via own goals, with Scott McTominay saved by an Aaron Wan-Bissaka goal-line clearance and Kyle Walker-Peters firing against his own post late on.

West Ham 1-1 Aston Villa

• Infogol xG: 2.58-1.98
• Fairness rating: 89.74
• Benrahma 26' (pen) | Watkins 17'

A Said Benrahma’s penalty lifted secured a point and lifted West Ham back out of the relegation zone.

Aston Villa led early through Ollie Watkins' header but Benrahma soon hit back from the spot after Lucas Paqueta was fouled.

Watkins' goal was his sixth in seven Premier League games as he continues to thrive since Danny Ings was sold to the Hammers.

Crystal Palace 0-1 Manchester City

• Infogol xG: 0.21-2.27
• Fairness rating: 89.36
• Haaland (pen) 78'

Crystal Palace's woeful run continued thanks to a 1-0 defeat at home to Manchester City.

The Eagles failed to register a single shot on target for the third straight Premier League games, the first time a team has managed that since Opta started collecting data.

Their attacking woes have been highlighted of late, and they mustered just 0.21 xGF on this occasion. Since the restart, they have averaged a league-low 0.83 xGF per game, while that average drops to 0.61 when solely looking at home matches.

The Eagles are in a relegation battle.

Manchester City were deserved winners on the night thanks to Erling Haaland's 28th league goal of the season, closing the gap on leaders Arsenal.

Pep's side have been excellent since the World Cup, according to the data, averaging 2.40 xGF and 0.86 xGA per game. Continue at that level and it's hard to see them slipping up too many more times.

Leicester 1-3 Chelsea

• Infogol xG: 2.17-1.55
• Fairness rating: 55.12
• Daka 39' | Chilwell 11', Havertz 45+6', Kovacic 78'
• Sent off: Faes 87'

Leicester were unfortunate to come away empty handed against Chelsea, with the Foxes creating the most xG of any home game this season at the King Power.

Chelsea were clinical (for once) with their opportunities, scoring three times from chances equating to 1.55 xG, with Infogol calculating they had a 20.4% chance of hitting a hat-trick.

The Blues do make it a third win in a week though to ease pressure on Graham Potter, and pull themselves within five points of fifth-placed Liverpool, who had earlier lost at Bournemouth.

As for Leicester, they drop to 16th, just one point above the drop zone after a fourth straight defeat.

Tottenham 3-1 Nottm Forest

• Infogol xG: 1.72-1.64
• Fairness rating: 68.21
• Kane 19' & 35' (pen), Son 62' | Worrall 81'

Tottenham actually create some chances and scored some goals on Saturday, hitting three in a home win over Nottingham Forest.

Harry Kane scored a first half brace as Spurs recovered quickly from Champions League elimination with a comfortable win.

It could have been a nervy finish had Andre Ayew converted a late penalty, but it wasn't to be, and Forest's away record for the season slipped to a terrible W1, D3, L9.

They have lost the xG battle in 12 of their 13 away games this season and were second best here, with their overall figure embellished by that penalty.

Everton 1-0 Brentford

• Infogol xG: 2.02-2.08
• Fairness rating: 68.20
• McNeil 1'

Everton scored in the very first minute of the game and then hung on to beat Brentford, in doing so ending the Bees' 12-game unbeaten run in the Premier League.

The Toffees again created plenty of good chances, something that is becoming a theme for them under Sean Dyche.

They have averaged 1.70 xGF per game since the managerial switch, but they do continue to show vulnerabilities at the back, and they were fortunate to keep a clean sheet on Saturday.

Thomas Frank's side racked up 2.08 xGF on the day, with Infogol calculating they had a 12.5% chance of failing to hit the net, and a 61.5% chance of scoring at least twice.

Leeds 2-2 Brighton

• Infogol xG: 0.68-1.84
• Fairness rating: 73.91
• Scorers: Bamford 40', Harrison 78' | Mac Allister 33', Harrison (og) 61'

Leeds battled back twice to earn a point against high-flying Brighton, but they were fortunate to get a share of the spoils.

The Seagulls again created plenty of good chances but while taking two of them, Leeds also netted twice from chances equating to just 0.68 xGF.

We calculate they had just a 14.9% chance of firing a brace on the day, and the low xG figure is part of a longer-term trend for the Whites.

They have averaged just 0.96 xGF per game across their last seven in the league, generating over 1.0 xGF on only one occasion.

Brighton on the other hand have no problems in forward areas, averaging over 2.10 xGF per game since the restart, so the goals should continue to flow for Roberto De Zerbi's side.

Bournemouth 1-0 Liverpool

• Infogol xG: 1.16-2.24
• Fairness rating: 47.31
• Billing 28'

Bournemouth gave their survival hopes a huge boost with a win over top-four-chasing Liverpool.

Mohamed Salah missed a second-half penalty for the Reds as they missed a great opportunity to put the pressure on sides above them in the table.

The Cherries created two big chances in the first half before holding on in the second with Liverpool huffing and puffing.

Jurgen Klopp's men have now got an away record reading W3, D3, L7 this season, having major issues on the road.

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