Wycombe host MK Dons in the first leg of their League One play-off semi-final on Thursday, and Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, selecting his best bets.
Football betting tips: League One play-offs
1.5pts MK Dons to win (Draw no Bet) at 11/10 (10bet)
1pt Under 1.5 Goals at 41/20 (Unibet)
The Sky Bet League One season was full of quality - at the top anyway.
The gulf in strength between teams at the top and the bottom of the table was as extreme as we have ever seen, with Plymouth missing out on the play-offs despite having accumulated a massive 80 points.
MK Dons narrowly missed out on automatic promotion despite amassing 89 points, but they will be full of confidence heading into the play-offs after finishing the regular season with a 5-0 thrashing of Plymouth away from home, a performance and result that should scare Wycombe.
Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Thursday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Wycombe 6/4 | Draw 21/10 | MK Dons 9/5
Wanderers are in good nick themselves, unbeaten in 12 including four straight home wins and six home clean sheets on the bounce.
Both teams have been excellent this season, but the underlying numbers suggest MK have the edge, with the Dons ranking as the fourth best defensive team over the campaign based on expected goals against (xGA) per game, allowing 0.92.
That makes them statistically the best defensive team in the play-offs (SHW 1.00, SUN 1.02, WYC 1.05), which is a good barometer for success given recent seasons.
Blackpool, last season's play-off winners, were also ranked as the best defensive team of the four, as were Charlton in 2018/19.
Add into that the fact that MK Dons have had Wycombe's number this season, beating them three times out of three (1-0, 2-1, 1-0), and the odds against available for MK DONS TO WIN DRAW NO BET looks a solid proposition.
The visitors appear to be slightly underestimated here, and I was surprised to see them as big as 19/10 to win this first leg given everything discussed, but taking the 'Draw no Bet' angle gives us security should the game end all square, which could happen given the expected low-scoring nature of this tie.
The clincher here is that MK were the league's second best away team this term, winning 13 and losing just four of 23, so they should avoid defeat at the least here, especially with their solid defensive metrics.
A second bet that makes the cut is to back UNDER 1.5 GOALS at greater than 2/1.
The first legs of play-off ties tend to be low-scoring as teams feel each other out, not wanting to give too much away ahead of the second leg.
Since 2012, this bet would have landed in seven of 20 League One play-off semi-final first legs, giving us an estimated starting price of 9/5 for this bet, but when we factor in the strengths of the defences on show, and the fact that this bet landed in both league meetings between the pair, it should perhaps be shorter.
Wycombe v MK Dons best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts MK Dons to win (Draw no Bet) at 11/10 (10bet)
- 1pt Under 1.5 Goals at 41/20 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Wycombe 0-1 MK Dons (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1500 BST (04/05/22)
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