The League One play-offs are set to be fierce this year, and with them getting underway on Thursday, Jake Osgathorpe takes a look at the outright promotion market.
Football betting tips: League One play-offs
1pt MK Dons to be promoted at 5/2 (General)
The 2021/22 Sky Bet League One season was an odd one.
Out of all the leagues across Europe, it could be argued there was no bigger gap in quality between the top 10 and the bottom half than in League One, shown by the fact that a whopping 81 points (1.76 per game) were needed to ensure a play-off place and only 40 points (0.87 per game) were required to survive.
The teams at the top were excellent, while the teams at the bottom were terrible.
After 46 games, though, Wigan and Rotherham secured automatic promotion to the Championship, with the Millers pipping MK Dons by a solitary point, while the remaining play-off places were filled by Sheffield Wednesday, Sunderland and Wycombe.
Sky Bet League One play-off dates and times
- Wycombe v MK Dons 1st leg - 5th May 19:45 BST
- Sunderland v Sheff Wed 1st leg - 6th May 19:45 BST
- MK Dons v Wycombe 2nd leg - 8th May 18:30 BST
- Sheff Wed v Sunderland 2nd leg - 9th May 19:45 BST
The finishing positions mean MK Dons take on Wycombe and Sheff Wed play Sunderland over two legs, with the winners of each progressing to the showpiece final at Wembley.
It is anyone's guess as to who will get promoted, with the reality being any of the four could go up and no one could argue one of the other three were more deserving, given just six points separated the quartet across the season.
Sky Bet League One Promotion odds (via Sky Bet)
- 15/8 - Sheffield Wednesday
- 5/2 - MK Dons
- 3/1 - Sunderland
- 7/2 - Wycombe
Odds correct at 1700 (03/05/22)
The most likely team according to the bookies to earn a return to the second tier is Sheffield Wednesday, though the Infogol model makes MK DONS the favourites for promotion, giving Liam Manning's side a 30.1% chance of winning the play-offs.
The Owls are in a close second at 29.6%, with these probabilities swayed by the fact that Darren Moore's side face a tougher semi-final than the Dons based on Infogol's ratings.
But, this is a preview looking for a value bet, and the value certainly lies with the MK DONS TO BE PROMOTED.
At 5/2, they are a touch too big, and there is every chance the big-named clubs are taking up more of the market than they deserve.
After all, not only were the Dons so close to automatic promotion, but they possess the best defensive process of the play-offs contingent.
When it comes to play-off football, siding with the strongest defensive team is always a good way to go, with MK's 0.92 xGA per game highlighting that they simply don't concede many chances.
Last season saw the best defensive team of the four promoted from League One (Blackpool), and the best defensive team promoted from the Championship (Brentford), and in games that are often defined by fine margins, the team who concedes the fewest number of quality chances always has a greater chance of progressing.
Wycombe will prove to be a tough opponent for the Dons, but the pair have met three times this season already and MK have won all three narrowly (1-0, 2-1, 1-0), so it has to be said that they have Wycombe's number, only increasing my confidence in them making the final.
In the other semi, Sheff Wed are the favourites to progress, but it is much more difficult to feel confident about who will make it to Wembley, with Sunderland unbeaten in 13 league games heading into the play-offs, winning five of their last six at home.
The two meetings between those sides this couldn't have been even more polar opposite if they tried, with the Owls winning at Hillsborough 3-0 and the Black Cats winning at the Stadium of Light 5-0!
It's set to be a blockbuster affair but is too tricky to call, so I'm more than happy to roll with MK Dons at 5/2 for promotion at this stage.
League One play-offs best bet
- MK Dons to be promoted at 5/2 (General)
Odds correct at 1200 BST (04/05/22)
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