Newcastle travel to Wolves in search of their first win of the season. Jake Pearson has previewed the match, picking out his best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Newcastle or Draw at 27/20 (Mansion Bet)
There is far more positivity around Molineux than there is around St James’ Park, with Wolves fans anticipating a season of progress, while Newcastle fans are firmly strapped in for another relegation battle.
The reality is though, after six games, there is just three points and three places between the two sides in the league.
Wolves may have won twice this season, but they have lost their other four matches, and in truth, their victories came against Watford and Southampton, the third and sixth favourites for relegation respectively.
A 2-0 home defeat against Brentford was a particularly poignant loss, as while the figures show a decent enough performance from Wolves, they actually created just 0.39 Expected Goals (xG) prior to Shandon Baptiste’s red card.
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
Wolves 8/13 | Draw 29/10 | Newcastle 17/4
The defeat also means that Wolves are without a win at home this season, losing all three of their fixtures at Molineux without scoring a goal.
Newcastle are still searching for their first win of the season, but they have drawn three of their six matches, and actually, they have only lost one of their last four.
They have also scored seven goals, which is the same amount as Leicester, and more than Arsenal and Tottenham – and more than double Wolves.
That is not a bad return, and in fact, they arguable could have had even more, creating chances equating to 8.20 xG this season.
It is at the back that Newcastle’s troubles really begin though, having already conceded 14 goals this season – only Norwich have conceded more.
Given the players Newcastle have going forward, namely Allan Saint-Maximin, Joe Willock and Miguel Almiron, their game plan should be obvious - keep games tight and wait for an explosive moment from one of their creative outlets.
The moments are happening – Saint-Maximin has already been directly involved in five Premier League goals this season – but the Magpies are struggling to stem the flow at the other end.
Having said that, Steve Bruce’s side have looked more solid in their last two outings, conceding chances against Leeds and Watford yes, but not good quality ones.
In fact, Newcastle haven’t conceded a ‘big chance’ – a chance with a probability of 35% or higher of being scored according to xG – in their last two matches, limiting their opponents to speculative hits.
If they can continue that, considering Wolves’ lack of a clinical edge in front of goal this season – no team has underperformed their xG by a higher margin – it wouldn’t be a huge shock if Newcastle grabbed their first clean sheet of the season at Molineux – after all, Wolves are averaging just 0.5 goals per game.
Wolves have flattered to deceive this season, and even in their 1-0 victory over Southampton last weekend they still looked wanting in attack, a brilliant solo goal from Raul Jiminez earning them the three points.
There isn’t a huge amount to choose between these two at this stage of the season, so the fact that Wolves are as short as 8/13 to get the win is surprising.
That is the shortest price Wolves have been since they hosted West Brom back in January – a game they lost it is worth mentioning – which makes a price of 27/20 about NEWCASTLE TO WIN OR DRAW worth getting onside.
Wolves v Newcastle best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Newcastle or Draw at 27/20 (Mansion Bet)
Score prediction: Wolves 0-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct at 1020 BST (30/09/21)
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