Arsenal: Mikel Arteta has been proving he is the long-term solution for the Gunners
It's amazing how much one game of football can alter perceptions.
Arsenal's 3-1 victory over bitter rivals Tottenham on Sunday was undoubtedly 'Super', but the subsequent claims of Mikel Arteta's vision finally coming to fruition feel a little disingenuous considering the position fans and media alike had him in just weeks ago.
After losing the first three league fixtures of the season, Arteta was favourite in the sack race, available at 4/9 to be the first Premier League manager to leave his post.
Now, the 39-year-old manager is being praised profusely for a turnaround that has been months in the making, perhaps an indication that many knew he was already doing a reasonable job.
Maybe that is a bi-product of the short-termism the Gunners' fanbase exudes, which, ironically, is a long-term problem that has seemingly been indoctrinated into the mass audience over time.
From a neutral perspective, though, the rollercoaster that is the week-to-week Arsenal discussion is simply exhausting.
At best, it is mildly amusing. At worst, it is unbearably toxic, especially when this is clearly a transition period for the club — a remodelling that Arteta has carried out with composure.
Inexperienced Arteta unfairly criticised
Granted, European football should maybe have been attained last season, falling one place short of that goal, but if the Spaniard was held to somewhat realistic expectations, Arteta would have emerged with more credit.
Although it may look like a rollercoaster, Arsenal's 10-match rolling expected goal (xG) averages with Arteta at the helm are relatively steady, showing that he stabilised a team spiralling under previous boss Unai Emery, before a real sign of improvement last season.
Only Premier League champions Manchester City recorded a higher points per game average than Arsenal after Christmas, ending the 2020/21 campaign with five consecutive wins.
Arsenal's underlying numbers were solid from Boxing Day onwards, too, averaging 1.57 expected goals for (xGF) per game and 1.20 expected goals against (xGA) per game.
The football may not have been pretty, but it was evident that Arteta was building a foundation to work from, even without the personnel required to challenge at the top.
Tough start
As for this season, you'll notice in the graphic above that Arsenal's rolling xG averages have crossed over into the 'orange', usually an indication of a team performing poorly.
However, the Gunners have had a strange start to the 2021//22 campaign, one which is a good example of the perils involved in coming to conclusions with data collected over a short period of time.
It is an opportunity to display how context is key when analysing the underlying numbers, though.
Hit with COVID-19 protocols and serious injury issues, a troubled beginning was always a possibility.
A 2-0 defeat to Brentford in the Premier League curtain-raiser (xG: BRE 1.42 - 1.19 ARS) is looking less embarrassing by the week, with the newly-promoted Bees continuing to impress at the top level.
The Gunners were then humbled by Chelsea and Manchester City, two juggernauts who are simply a cut above Arsenal at the moment. Admittedly, these were two substandard performances, but a 35th minute Granit Xhaka red card against the latter handed City the initiative to bump up their xG figures.
"Trust the process"
Arteta then described the next fortnight as his "best days" in football, a statement ridiculed by some considering it was completed by his Arsenal side beating Norwich 1-0 (xG: ARS 2.98 - 0.64 NOR) to lift themselves off the bottom of the table.
He was, of course, referring to something wider than bare results, with a raft of players returning to complete Arteta's vision of what his team looks like, but it was an intelligible statement given the pressure mounted on Arteta after a very difficult beginning to their season.
Arsenal's last two wins are a lesson in understanding the impact of game state on football matches.
At Burnley, they lost the xG battle, but limited Burnley to very few chances after taking the lead. In the North London derby, Arsenal put on a scintillating first half performance, earning themselves an opportunity to coast to victory after the break (xG: ARS 1.65 - 1.14 TOT), all having an affect on Arsenal's overall -4.1 expected goal difference (xGD) on the season.
Arteta has earned time at Arsenal
Arsenal's transition period appears to have entered the next phase. Maybe not in Arteta's mind, but simply through public perception.
Arteta's wish for Arsenal fans to "trust the process" after a hiding to nothing at home to Chelsea was met with criticism. Now, after Sunday's convincing win against Spurs, the time needed for a long-term plan to be implemented might well have been accepted by a fanbase known for short-termism.
It is a transition plan Arteta has been executing with credit for a while, though, stabilising the club and improving through youth. After all, six of Arsenal's starters against Tottenham were signed during his tenure, with the other five given contract extensions by Arteta.
Of course, it would be a very 'Arsenal' to lose the goodwill gained against Brighton this weekend and plunge into another faux crisis. Remember, it's amazing how much one game of football can make a difference.
However, Mikel Arteta knows it's the long-term that matters right now — a process he should be trusted to preside over.
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