Everton v Tottenham: xG analysis says two teams won't qualify for Europe
Hope sprung eternal for most of the season on Merseyside, with Everton lingering around the top four and top six of the Premier League table while boasting games in hand.
They were a tough team to beat over the Christmas period, picking up plenty of points, but the underlying data really never got on board with the thinking that Carlo Ancelotti’s side could actually break into the European places.
Meanwhile, Tottenham were top of the Premier League table at one point, and looked like mounting a real title charge under the guidance of Jose Mourinho, but that is now a distant memory.
Many Spurs fans want to cut bait with the decorated Portuguese manager, and they may have a point, with no clear improvement witnessed since his appointment.
On Friday, these two teams meet with hopes of European football dwindling, and defeat in the game would almost certainly put an end to their challenge, but in reality, the chances of either finishing in the top six are slim.
First five games the best it got for Toffees
The start of the season was full of promise, with Everton beginning with a rare victory away at a ‘big six’ team – Tottenham in fact – before going on to pick up 13 points from a possible 15.
The important thing that needs to be understood about this positive start is that it was fully deserved. After five matches in the Premier League, which included games at Spurs and at home to Liverpool, Everton were among the best four teams in the league based on expected points.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Dominic Calvert-Lewin and the Everton attack were incredibly potent in that albeit small period, averaging 2.14 expected goals for per game, which ranked third best in the league.
However, that was the best it got for the Toffees.
Since that good start, Everton have performed like a relegation candidate according to the underlying metrics. Only five teams have collected fewer expected points (xP) per game than Ancelotti’s side since the 20th of October.
Change in tactics to blame
Over their last 25 Premier League games, Everton have averaged a pathetic 1.16 xGF per game.
Injuries have played their part, with Lucas Digne – a key creator – and James Rodriguez both missing time, but that doesn’t explain the negative tactics now deployed by Ancelotti.
They have gone from a gung-ho, we’ll score more than you approach that was exciting to watch and was yielding results, to a negative, conservative one in which they are giving up more chances than they are creating.
It appeared as though results dictated that this change in tactic was persisted with, and still is now, as following four defeats in five, Everton reeled off successive wins over Chelsea, Leicester, Arsenal and Sheffield United up to Boxing Day, but xG performances in those games were poor, suggesting that this approach wouldn't serve them well in the long term.
For Everton to have any chance of finishing in the European places this season, they really need to cut loose and start taking the game to their opponents, just as they did at the start of the season.
Tottenham – from title contenders to mid-table
It was a similar story for Spurs this season, but arguably to a worst extent.
While Everton had their moment in the sun for five matches this season, Tottenham had it for 12, as through nearly a third of the Premier League season they were sat at the top of the Premier League table.
Performance data suggested that they were over-performing, occupying sixth in Infogol’s xG table ahead of a visit to Anfield, but the signs were there that Jose Mourinho was slowly improving his team.
They had taken seven points from games against Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal, and were posting positive xG numbers (1.63 xGF, 1.27 xGA per game), but lost to the champions through a late set-piece and the wheels seemingly fell off.
Ironically, they deserved at least a point against Liverpool based on expected goals (xG: LIV 1.09 – 1.41 TOT), but that defeat kicked off a downward spiral.
Including that game at Anfield, Spurs have now won just six of 19, with those victories coming against Leeds, Sheffield United, West Brom, Burnley, Fulham and Aston Villa. Hardly any big scalps there.
Worst still, their underlying process in that time has dipped into the negative, with Tottenham now conceding more and better chances on a regular basis than they are creating (1.39 xGF, 1.46 xGA per game).
Jose Mourinho hasn’t improved Spurs
While there was an initial up lift in results in the immediate aftermath of Mourinho’s appointment last season, and then a good finish to the season to secure European football, the Portuguese manager has ultimately failed to take Spurs forwards.
Since his appointment, Mourinho has overseen 57 Premier League matches, in which time they have seen some incredibly positive variance, over scoring based on chances created, while conceding fewer than would be expected.
They have netted around 14 more while allowing 18 fewer goals based on xG, an overall over performance that is absolutely unsustainable in the long run.
If Tottenham continue to average 1.45 xGF and 1.46 xGA per game, mid-table mediocrity beckons for the foreseeable future, and with that comes more speculation over star man Harry Kane's future - which Richard Jolly so brilliantly wrote about here.
In comparison, over the last 57 matches of Mauricio Pochettino’s reign, Tottenham averaged 1.48 xGF and 1.41 xGA per game, so not much has changed, and they certainly haven’t got better.
Will Everton and Spurs qualify for Europe?
Infogol calculates that it is unlikely that either of Everton or Spurs finish in the top six this season.
Both teams are posting underlying numbers that aren’t worthy of them qualifying for European football, and have done for a long period of time.
Despite Tottenham sitting seventh and just three points behind sixth-placed Liverpool and six behind fourth-placed West Ham, based on the expected points that Spurs are calculated to accrue over the remainder of the campaign, Infogol believes that they have just a 25.5% chance of finishing in the top six, and a 4.3% chance of securing Champions League football for next season.
As for Everton, they are four points behind Liverpool and seven behind West Ham with a game in hand over both, but their chances of a top six finish stand at 10.8%, with top four a minuscule 0.8%.
They face each other on Friday night, and given the state of play, it would likely be curtains for the loser in terms of securing European football.
This game is bigger for Spurs than Everton given they have the better chance of securing a top six berth, and a victory at Goodison Park would see Mourinho’s sides chances increase to 36%, while an Everton win sees Spurs’ chances dip to 12%.
The Toffees, even with a win in this upcoming clash, would only see their chances increase to 14%, though anything other than a victory would see their probability of a top six finish go below 6 in 100.
In what is a huge game between two teams who had early-season highs and seriously ambitious aspirations, this game seems like last chance saloon for the pair.
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