Sevilla lift the Europa League trophy for a sixth time
Who will win the Europa League?

Europa League winner odds: Manchester United favourites after quarter-final draw, Arsenal second

Jake Osgathorpe analyses the Europa League quarter-final draw, with Manchester United and Arsenal's chances assessed.

Granada v Manchester United

Granada made hard work of a Molde side who conceded 7.33 xGA over two legs against Hoffenheim in the round prior, so Manchester United are understandably short priced favourites to progress here.

Having already beaten Spanish opposition in this competition, and edging out AC Milan in the last round, Infogol gives United a 69.8% chance of progressing to the semi finals yet again, with a 26.7% chance of lifting the trophy.

What is expected goals (xG)?

  • Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
  • Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
  • Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team

Europa League winner 2020/21 (latest odds via Sky Bet)

  • Manchester United - 6/4
  • Arsenal - 11/4
  • Villarreal - 5/1
  • Ajax - 6/1
  • Roma - 9/1
  • Granada - 28/1
  • Slavia Prague - 28/1
  • Dinamo Zagreb - 40/1

Odds correct at 14:40 BST (05/04/21)

% chance of winning Europa League

Arsenal v Slavia Prague

Arsenal managed to get past Olympiakos this season, though were made to sweat a little, but the Gunners are rightly among the favourites for this competition, though this is their stiffest test yet.

Slavia Prague are the ‘home nations’ killer, having knocked our Leicester and Rangers already in the knockout rounds, but Mikel Arteta’s side are fancied to progress by the model (68.4%), which has them second favourites for the tournament (22.4%).

Ajax v Roma

Young Boys had just beaten German side Bayer Leverkusen 6-3 on aggregate, so the way in which Ajax dealt with the Swiss side was eye-catching, winning 5-0 on aggregate, while the two-legged xG read 6.98 to 1.08 in the Dutch sides favour. They are a force.

Roma are another strong team left in this competition, getting to this stage after dismissing Shakhtar Donetsk, though the Infogol model makes Ajax the narrow 55.2% favourites to progress in this tie.

Dinamo Zagreb v Villarreal

Dinamo Zagreb caused the upset of the last 16 by coming from 2-0 down after the first leg to beat Tottenham in extra time, and they did all of that without their manager, who quit days before the second leg after receiving a four-year prison sentence.

Villarreal, led by former Arsenal manager Unai Emery who has wo this tournament three times, have been quietly going about their business, but shouldn’t be underestimated, and the model makes them 66.2% to progress to the semis.

Europa League quarter-final and semi-final draw

  • Granada v Manchester United
  • Arsenal v Slavia Prague
  • Ajax v Roma
  • Dinamo Zagreb v Villarreal
  • Granada or Manchester United v Ajax or Roma
  • Dinamo Zagreb or Villarreal v Arsenal or Slavia Prague

The Infogol model thinks the most likely semi final is a repeat of the 2017 final, with a 39% chance that Manchester United face Ajax, but the Ajax-Roma tie is the closest of the four quarter finals according to the model.

The chances of Unai Emery facing his former employers stands at 45%, with both Villarreal and Arsenal strong favourites to advance to the final four.

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