Premier League review: Newcastle fixtures; Bernardo Silva; Ralf Rangnick
Who has the best fixtures this Christmas?

Who has the best and worst fixtures over Christmas?


The football Christmas period is one celebrated and loved by football fans.

A seven-day footballing extravaganza that has been intertwined with Christmas and New Year's celebrations, with every football fan getting to see their team play three times in a small window.

This season, like last, may again be different though due to the Covid pandemic and potential restrictions, plus the prospect of games being postponed due to positive cases.

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Nonetheless, the Premier League has vowed to plough on with the schedule, much to the disappointment of some managers who really don't like the way the English pyramid crams in a load of football where other European nations take a winter break.

So, with the top flight set to see business as usual in terms of fixtures, which team has the kindest schedule from Boxing Day to New Year's Day?

Using Infogol ratings and forecast positions, we have calculated who could be in for a rough week, and who will be able to capitalise on a kind run of fixtures.

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Which teams have the toughest schedules?

Two of the newly promoted sides have the unenviable tag of being the teams facing the most difficult run of fixtures.

By calculating the average forecast position of upcoming opponents, Brentford and Watford are the teams who may have a lean Christmas period.

The Bees travel to Brighton before hosting league leaders Manchester City and an in-form Aston Villa, while Watford travel to face a stubborn Wolves side before back-to-back home games against West Ham and Tottenham.

Of the title challengers, an out-of-sorts Chelsea are the side who face the trickiest fixture list.

Thomas Tuchel's side visit Steven Gerrard's Aston Villa before hosting Brighton and then Liverpool.

Leicester, who are just about within touching distance of the top six, face Manchester City and Liverpool in their three games, before welcoming bottom side Norwich.

Based on expected points (xPoints), which are calculated using Infogol's team ratings to generate W-D-L percentage chances for each game over the festive period, it is the basement side Norwich who are expected to struggle the most.

They are expected to collect on average 2.58 xPoints, with their schedule seeing them face Arsenal (h), Crystal Palace (a) and Leicester (8).

Premier League strength of schedule over Christmas period

Which teams have the easiest schedules?

At the other end of the scale, London duo Tottenham and West Ham are the teams set to face the kindest schedule based on the average forecast of the opponents they will face.

It isn't a surprise that they tie in that ranking, as the pair actually face the exact same teams over the three game stretch.

Spurs host Crystal Palace before visiting Southampton and Watford, while West Ham start off by hosting Southampton before visiting Watford and Crystal Palace.

West Ham (5.15) collect marginally more xPoints than Spurs (5.12) over the period due to the fact Palace are rated better than Southampton, so the Hammers are more likely to win their home game than Antonio Conte's side.

Either way, the Christmas schedule should give both a good opportunity to mount top four challenges thanks to decent fixtures.

Everton, who have been really poor for some time, will be looking forward to some kinder fixtures, with the Toffees' schedule ranking as the third easiest, travelling to Burnley before hosting Newcastle and Brighton.

Manchester United round up the four teams who have the kindest fixtures over the Premier League festive period.

The Red Devils travel to Newcastle before welcoming both Burnley and Wolves to Old Trafford.

Only Manchester City (6.59) - who have a much tougher schedule - are expected to collect more xPoints than Manchester United (6.29), and that is simply down to the superiority of City's Infogol ratings.

Relegation-threatened Newcastle may have been hoping for a kind run of fixtures over the Christmas period, but Eddie Howe's side face only an above-average schedule.

Manchester United at home is followed by away trips to Everton and Southampton, which ranks as the tied-fifth best schedule, but so bad are Newcastle's underlying numbers and Infogol ratings that they are expected to pick up the third fewest xPoints (2.93).

Of course, while this is all 'in theory' and backed up by a scientific model that runs 100,000s of simulations to get these calculations, circumstances such as key players missing or drastic process improvements could affect the results drastically.

All we can say for certain then, is that we should be set for an enjoyable and entertaining festive period with some excellent and exciting football.


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