West Ham v West Brom free betting tips: Best bets and Premier League preview
The Premier League continues on Tuesday and Tom Carnduff has found two big prices on goalscorers in West Ham v West Brom.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Pablo Fornals to score anytime at 11/2
1pt Angelo Ogbonna to score anytime at 9/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
West Ham v West Brom
- 18:00 GMT on BT Sport 1
- Match odds: Home 11/20 | Draw 3/1 | Away 5/1
West Brom secured a surprise victory in their trip to local rivals Wolves last time out, it handed Sam Allardyce his first win as Baggies boss, but a visit to West Ham should leave them empty-handed. The Hammers have been in fine form under David Moyes, winning their last three on an unbeaten run that stretches to five games.
What is perhaps most impressive is that their last four games have all seen clean sheets, that's a run that includes two tricky contests away at Everton and Southampton. For West Brom, while they may have scored five across their last two, they have conceded four and that will be a concern against a Hammers side who recently welcomed back Michail Antonio.
Antonio has found a home in the striker role. He had the potential to be among the Premier League's leading goalscorers had it not been for injury, and with the winning goal against Burnley at the weekend, there is a good chance he may well strike again.
But at an anytime price of 10/11 with some bookmakers, the interest just isn't there for the potential low return.
Instead, shopping around the market provides some intriguing prices based on recent showings and the biggest overprice has to come in Pablo Fornals' 11/2 to score anytime.
The attacking midfielder has been a regular under Moyes this season but only has two goals on his tally. However, a dive into the statistics shows he's been very unlucky not to have more.
His xG of 3.8 is the fourth-highest in this West Ham side - so far he hasn't been able to convert that into goals.
Jarrod Bowen has double the number of league goals despite a similar xG of 3.83. Fornals is seeing more opportunities on target though, averaging 0.47 per game compared to Bowen's 0.4. With Bowen a much lower 12/5 to score anytime, the value in this contest, against this defence, lies with Fornals.
He has had at least one shot in each of his last seven appearances - in fact, he has failed to register an attempt in just two of 17 Premier League games. The Spaniard missed a great chance to score in the recent win at Everton, and he is now long overdue a goal having last found the net when he broke the deadlock in West Ham's narrow defeat at Anfield early in the campaign.
It's worth backing him with the price on offer, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see the 12/1 on that goal coming from outside the area land either.
Sticking with big-priced goalscorers, and Angelo Ogbonna is certainly one to consider given his performance against Burnley.
He had three shots in that game, combining for an xG of 0.29 which is high for a centre-back. He also has two on his tally this season, and set-pieces could be a route to success for West Ham.
Both of Wolves' goals at the weekend came as a result of set-plays. The West Brom defence struggled to contain Willy Boly and they could face the same issue with Ogbonna given his attacking presence. He's won four aerial duels in each of his last two outings - higher than any of the Baggies' centre-backs' averages.
His 9/1 to score anytime is enough, considering his recent showings and West Brom's defending, particularly when Ogbonna was successfully tipped at 12/1 against Leeds earlier this season for exactly the same reasons.
Even with some fairly low-scoring contests this season, we can expect the hosts to grab a couple here in a match they are near enough 1/2 to win. But under 2.5 goals is just under even money which is a more attractive outright option.
Instead though, in a contest where one side is so strongly fancied, the best bets can be found in the goalscorer market with Fornals and Ogbonna.
Score prediction: West Ham 2-0 West Brom (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
West Ham v West Brom best bets
Opta facts
- After losing their first Premier League home meeting with West Brom in September 2002, West Ham are unbeaten in their last nine against the Baggies (W3 D6).
- West Brom lost their last Premier League meeting with West Ham, 1-2 in January 2018. They’ve not lost consecutive league meetings with the Hammers since the 2005-06 campaign when they were relegated.
- The first three Premier League meetings between West Ham and West Brom in London saw just three goals scored (1x 0-0 draw, 1x 1-0 win each). Since then, there has been 25 goals in seven top-flight meetings between the sides at Upton Park/London Stadium, with both sides finding the net each time.
- West Ham have won both of their league meetings with promoted sides this season, beating Fulham 1-0 and Leeds 2-1. They last beat all three promoted clubs in the same campaign in 2016-17 (Burnley, Hull and Middlesbrough).
- West Ham are looking to keep four consecutive Premier League clean sheets for the first time since February 2014, when they were managed by current West Brom manager Sam Allardyce.
Odds correct at 1230 GMT (18/01/21)
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