West Ham bid to complete the treble over Leeds this season on Sunday, just seven days after knocking them out of the FA Cup. Michael Beardmore has a preview and two best bets.
1pt West Ham half-time/West Ham full-time at 8/5 (Coral/Ladbrokes)
1pt Jarrod Bowen 2+ shots on target at 2/1 (Sky Bet)
West Ham have relocated their mojo and Leeds are floundering like BoJo – only one outcome at the London Stadium then surely on Sunday?
Leeds’ record against the top seven in both league and cup this season is absolutely atrocious – it reads P9 W0 D0 L9 F6 A30. Generous hosts of garden parties that aid the opposition no end. Ahem.
Conversely, the Hammers have swatted aside teams in the bottom six with impressive regularity, dropping points on only one occasion in a goalless draw at Burnley.
Those respective records – plus the Hammers twice beating Leeds in league and cup, as recently as last weekend in the latter – make the 4/6 generally available on a home win very appealing for odds-on backers.
That’s a bit short for us to tip here, though, and while the 13/10 on a West Ham win and Over 2.5 Goals tempts, the possibility of a repeat of last Sunday’s 2-0 FA Cup scoreline puts me off a bit.
Leeds’ habit of losing by a few makes the unders markets a risk too so, for me, the best value on a home victory comes with the 8/5 available on WEST HAM HT/WEST HAM FT in the half-time/full-time markets.
The Hammers have won four on the spin, having led at half-time in all four, while Leeds have trailed at the break in three of their past four and are hardly a side you expect to dig in until the interval.
An even better price comes in the form of Sky Bet’s 2/1 on man-of-the-moment JARROD BOWEN TO HAVE 2+ SHOTS ON TARGET. The Hammers forward is averaging 2.4 shots per game this season in the Premier League.
Bowen, who has scored three goals in his past two games, is not afraid to let fly and has a decent accuracy ratio too, averaging one shot on target per game.
We also have to factor in that he’s coming up against a gung-ho Leeds side that allow a whopping 17.6 shots against per away game – the second highest figure in the division behind Burnley.
Given he’s just 5/2 best price to score at any time, the 2/1 on Bowen to merely test Leeds keeper Illan Meslier twice, given the confidence he’s displaying and Leeds' defensive deficiencies, looks dripping with value.
Score prediction: West Ham 3-1 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct 1730 GMT (13/01/22)
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