West Ham v Larnaca: Europa Conference League best bets and preview
West Ham bring a 2-0 lead into their second leg against Larnaca, and James Cantrill is chancing a goalscorer at the London Stadium.
Football betting tips: Europa Conference League
2pts Gianluca Scamacca to score anytime at 11/10 (General)
Given their precarious position in the Premier League, David Moyes may be rueing his side's involvement in the Europa Conference League, the continent's tertiary competition.
A draw at home to Aston Villa on Sunday has left them with their heads just above water, no thanks to Liverpool’s shock defeat on the South Coast.
Level on points with Bournemouth, West Ham’s vastly superior goal difference does give them some breathing space. However, their European duties cause a congested schedule of fixtures, as we head into the business end of the season.
That said, the Hammers have a real chance of silverware here. Two goals to the good, they are 1/100 to reach the quarters.
West Ham’s domestic goal difference does stand at -10 and a lack of clinicality is to blame because they have certainly created enough chances.
Domestically, they have racked up an xG of 37.9, yet have only found the net 24 times.
GIANLUCA SCAMACCA is a player bucking West Ham’s wasteful trend.
Domestically, the Italian frontman is overperforming his xG by 0.14, marginal yes but by his side's standards, it cannot be scoffed at.
This is nothing new as far as the Italian is concerned though. He bagged 16 goals in Serie A last season from an xG of 11.28.
This clinicality will be welcome in an otherwise blunt Hammer’s side and it has paid dividends in this competition already. Scamacca has found the net four times in eight appearances.
Using his goals per 90 average from European football and the Premier League (0.58) as a rough guide, 10/11 would be a worthy punt here and that is without considering the calibre of the opposition.
So, the 11/10 for him to SCORE ANYTIME certainly appeals.
Excluding the preliminary rounds, in the nine games since, the Cypriot side have kept clean sheets in three games, two of which came in the last round against Ukrainian side SK Dnipro-1.
Larnaca have also faced Rennes, Dynamo Kyiv and Fenerbahce, sides of a similar ilk to West Ham, conceding 10 goals in six games and keeping one clean sheet in the process.
As previously mentioned, West Ham put two past them in the first leg. Given a rare opportunity, you would imagine Scamacca will be keen to add to his tally and stake his claim to become a regular starter.
West Ham v Larnaca best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Gianluca Scamacca to score anytime at 11/10 (General)
Score prediction: West Ham 2-0 Larnaca (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)
Odds correct at 1430 GMT (15/03/23)
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