West Ham v Arsenal tips: Premier League Super Sunday best bets and preview
Two teams in the fight for European football meet on Sunday, with West Ham welcoming Arsenal. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, selecting his best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Gabriel Magalhaes to score anytime at 15/2 (Betfred)
On the face of it, this game looks massive for both teams.
West Ham are currently seventh and just three points behind Manchester United with a game in hand, while Arsenal are fourth and two points clear of north London rivals Tottenham.
However, while there is plenty on the line for the Gunners, the Hammers will likely have their attentions elsewhere, with the second leg of their Europa League semi-final taking place just four days after this match.
If last weekend was anything to go by, with David Moyes resting the majority of his key starters against Chelsea in a bid to keep them fresh for the UEL, then we will more than likely see something similar this weekend.
Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
West Ham 18/5 | Draw 11/4 | Arsenal 8/11
That, and the must-win nature of all remaining games for Arsenal, is the only reason that the Gunners are as short as 8/11 to win here.
Even with omissions likely for the hosts, that price is just simply too short for an untrustworthy away team that is Arsenal.
Successive wins over Chelsea and Manchester United may have also seen their price to win here artificially shorten, but they represent no value at that price.
So, in what is a tough game to gauge in terms of starting XI and the motivation/focus of West Ham, small stakes are advised, with the main selection a more speculative shout at a bigger price.
While we know there is a chance of a weaker West Ham starting line-up, I am confident in saying that their backline will be missing key players.
Kurt Zouma, a monster in the air, returned early from injury to play in midweek, but I can't imagine Moyes playing him again just 72 hours after that game having been rushed back in the first place. He will be wrapped in cotton wool ahead of the second leg.
Issa Diop and Angelo Ogbonna are out injured for this, and Craig Dawson is suspended after receiving a red card at Chelsea last weekend.
Who is going to be playing at centre-back for the Hammers this weekend then?
That brings me on to the betting angle, backing GABRIEL MAGALHAES TO SCORE ANYTIME.
With a lack of size in the Hammers team, especially if Declan Rice and Michail Antonio are rested as they were against Chelsea, Arsenal will likely see set-pieces as a great avenue to score.
The Gunners have seen 17% of their total xGF this season come from corners and set-pieces, so do create a decent amount from them (0.30 per game).
And even with a full compliment at the back, West Ham have still allowed 0.26 xGA per game from corners and set-pieces this season - equating to 18% of all xGA conceded.
Expect that figure to go up with the number of absentees we expect on Sunday, and Gabriel can be the man to take advantage.
The Brazilian has looked a constant threat from attacking set-pieces this season, and has already notched three goals, with his 0.10 xG/95 impressive for a centre-back.
He will be Arsenal's biggest threat from dead-ball situations, and should get a few chances against a likely depleted West Ham defence.
In what is a tough game to find obvious value, chancing Gabriel to score at a big price appeals greatly.
West Ham v Arsenal best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Gabriel Magalhaes to score anytime at 15/2 (Betfred)
Score prediction: West Ham 1-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1400 BST (29/04/22)
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