Watford face yet another tricky fixture as champions Manchester City travel to Vicarage Road on Saturday. Jake Pearson has previewed the fixture, picking out his best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Manchester City to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 5/4 (bet365, William Hill)
Watford ran Chelsea pretty close on Wednesday evening, holding on to a 1-1 score line before Hakim Ziyech put the Blues in front with 18 minutes remaining, and in truth, the Hornets were a little unfortunate to lose the match, holding Chelsea to an expected goals for (xGF) total of less than 1.0, a good achievement against a side averaging 1.98 xGF per game this season.
Claudio Ranieri has undoubtedly had it tough since taking over at Vicarage Road – in his first seven matches in charge, Southampton are the only team Watford have faced that didn’t finish inside the top eight last term.
Unfortunately for the Italian, things are only going to get worse before they get better, with champions Manchester City the visitors on Saturday.
City’s victory over Aston Villa on Wednesday wasn’t completely straight forward, the hosts pushing for the equaliser late on after Ollie Watkins got them back in the game just after half time. City stood firm though, something we have come to expect from Pep Guardiola’s side in recent times.
Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Watford 16/1 | Draw 13/2 | Man City 1/7
City boast the best defensive process in the league according to expected goals, conceding chances equating to just 0.68 xGA per game. They have conceded just eight times in the Premier League, keeping eight clean sheets in 14 matches.
Over the past two seasons Manchester City have become a ruthless outfit, cruising past teams with minimal fuss, and without overexertion.
Incredibly, for a side challenging for the title, Manchester City games see a surprising low amount of goals, averaging just 2.64 per game – 2.43 away from home.
This is a stark drop-off from previous campaigns, City matches averaging 3.11 goals per game in 2018/19, 3.61 in 2019/20 and 3.03 last season.
Despite their obvious scoring power, Pep Guardiola’s men choose to control matches through possession, rather than through goals.
Watford games have been relatively high scoring since Ranieri took charge, in fact the Hornets are third only to Liverpool and Leicester in terms of the amount of goals their games have seen over the last eight matches.
But, those games have mostly been against fellow goal-happy teams, with their two matches that finished 1-0 both coming against teams that sit in the bottom half for total match goals (Arsenal and Southampton).
Incredibly, Manchester City have conceded in the first half in just one of their matches so far this season, making it difficult to see Watford causing much of an upset; once the Citizens get in front, it is very difficult to peg them back.
The bet in this fixture then must be MANCHESTER CITY TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS.
Seven of City's 10 Premier League wins have seen this bet land this season, while it landed in 17 of their 27 league wins last term.
Also, by multiplying the best available price for a Manchester City win, and the best available price for Under 3.5 Goals, we arrive at 11/10, so the 5/4 on offer certainly does make appeal.
Watford v Man City best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Manchester City to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 5/4 (bet365, William Hill)
Score prediction: Watford 0-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1150 GMT (02/12/21)
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