Liverpool head to Villarreal for the second leg of their Champions League semi-final tie with a 2-0 lead. Joe Townsend previews the game, selecting his best bets.
Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Both teams to score at 8/11 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Draw at 13/4 (Unibet)
0.5pt Raul Albiol to score at 40/1 (Sky Bet, Hills, Betfred)
Previewing the second match of two-legged ties is never straightforward, especially when one team has a significant advantage.
Liverpool are a winning machine, taking victory in 22 of their past 27 matches, but two of those blemishes have come in second legs of this season's Champions League knockout stage. As they do on Tuesday night, they went into both of those games two goals ahead.
While Inter Milan (19/4) and Benfica (9/1) were a bigger price to win than Villarreal (4/1) are, crucially those matches were at Anfield.
Villarreal v Liverpool (agg: 0-2)
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Tuesday
TV channel: BT Sport 2
Home 10/3 | Draw 16/5 | Away 7/10
Using Inter, rather than Benfica, as the better comparison given they also play in one of Europe's 'big four' leagues, Villarreal are significantly longer than Simone Inzaghi's team were (12/5) to win the home leg of their last-16 tie.
Given the Yellow Submarine have to go for it and Liverpool can afford to draw or narrowly lose, for once it's worth opposing Jurgen Klopp's side - at least to some degree.
Villarreal are unbeaten in 12 home games stretching back to November, beating Bayern Munich and drawing with Juventus at El Madrigal on their way to the last four.
In that sequence they have also drawn league matches with both Madrid clubs and an Athletic Bilbao team currently a place and a point below them in the La Liga table. The DRAW is what I am advising here at a standout price of 13/4.
Liverpool's incredible form means it's difficult to make the case for Unai Emery's men to turn them over, whatever the circumstances of the match.
The Spaniards can be backed at a best price of 4/1 with the 14/5 about Villarreal draw no bet also tempting. Not tempting enough, though.
Another selection I do like is the 8/11 about BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE with Paddy Power and Betfair.
Game state really plays in to this bet given that Villarreal must score twice to have any chance of qualification.
Liverpool's recent record in these knockout ties adds to the notion that their usually watertight defence may be breached when their opponent is throwing the kitchen sink at them.
Klopp refused to criticise his team after the 3-3 draw with Benfica in the last round, instead saying it was "normal" for players to become complacent and lose concentration when qualification was virtually guaranteed.
It's not difficult to make a case for Liverpool to find the net, but just for the record they have scored in 53 of 56 games in all competitions this season.
Finishing with a longshot, I wouldn't sleep without including RAUL ALBIOL TO SCORE ANYTIME to small stakes after it leapt out at an eye-watering 40/1.
Perhaps more surprising is that Sky Bet, William Hill and Betfred have all priced the former Spain defender up significantly bigger than any other firm. Moreover, the old warhorse of a centre-back is considerably longer than any other player in the market.
Albiol may only have one goal to his name this season but after a quiet start in terms of attacking involvement, he has registered an attempt in five of Villarreal's past nine home league games.
His price is an outlier compared to his team-mates, with Sky Bet pricing both Albiol and Juan Foyth at 2/1 and 11/2 to have a shot and a shot on target respectively, yet Foyth is 28/1 to score for the first since October 2020.
Villarreal v Liverpool best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Both teams to score at 8/11 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
- 1pt Draw at 13/4 (Unibet)
- 0.5pt Raul Albiol to score at 40/1 (Sky Bet, Hills, Betfred)
Score prediction: Villarreal 1-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1130 BST (03/05/22)
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