Tottenham host Manchester City in what is a mouthwatering Super Sunday clash. Jake Osgathorpe previews it, providing a best bet, next best and longshot.
Football betting tips: Super Sunday
3pts Manchester City to win at 3/4 (General)
1.5pts Erling Haaland to score anytime at 23/25 (Unibet)
0.5pt Harry Kane to be carded at 7/1 (Unibet)
Tottenham needed a good transfer window, and while I believe they had one, it's hard to make a case that it'll have much of an impact in this game against the best team in the league.
After all, this is a Spurs side who have W2, D1 and L3 since the Premier League restarted, and in that time have posted simply shocking underlying numbers (1.07 xGF, 1.71 xGA per game).
I wasn't impressed by the performance against Fulham, a draw being a fairer result based on the chances created (xG: FUL 1.13 - 1.03 TOT), and this Manchester City team are purring despite many suggesting they aren't at the levels of recent years.
Since the restart they have averaged 2.40 xGF and 0.75 xGA per game, losing the xG battle only at Old Trafford against Manchester United - a game with a huge asterisk next to it given the incredibly dubious goal that saw the Red Devils equalise.
Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Tottenham 18/5 | Draw 29/10 | Man City 7/10
I think they are set to make a run now and really pile the pressure on Arsenal in the title race, and the price on offer for a MANCHESTER CITY WIN here is value in my eyes.
These two sides met only a few weeks ago, and in that game the gap in quality was evident. City gave Spurs a 2-0 head start with 45 minutes to play and still won 4-2.
Pep Guardiola's side have collected the second most points per away game in the league this season, and hold the best away xG process (1.96 xGF, 1.07 xGA per game).
Meanwhile Spurs have lost four of their last five in front of their own fans, including against high-fliers Newcastle and Arsenal, as well as Liverpool.
The City win is the main fancy, but at the prices it's also worth backing ERLING HAALAND TO SCORE ANYTIME at a shade of odds-on.
Yes, it seems obvious, and it is. Haaland is a beast, and we should back him when his price is anywhere near even-money.
The Norwegian has scored 25 league goals this season in 19 appearances, is fresh off a hat-trick in his last league game against Wolves, and averages a league-leading 1.01 xGF per 95 minutes.
So far he has averaged 0.24 xG per shot, meaning each attempt he takes has a 24% chance of being scored which is incredible and highlights that when he gets a chance it tends to be a good one.
Haaland scored in the reverse fixture and with City expected to score at least two here, the chance of him notching is high, and with this bet as short as 8/15 in places, the price available should be snapped up.
A final, and longer priced, selection comes from the card markets, where HARRY KANE TO BE CARDED looks overpriced at 7/1.
We have Andy Madley in the middle and he has averaged 3.53 cards per game across his 13 matches this season, so we should expect a few yellows flashed, and Kane has already been cautioned four times this season which is just one fewer than teammate Cristian Romero - yet the Argentine is 12/5 here.
Pierre-Emile Hojberg has committed 17 fouls this term - one fewer than Kane - and picked up two cautions, yet is available at a shorter 24/5.
Based on the price available, a small play is advised for a player prone to a cynical foul.
Tottenham v Man City best bets and score prediction
- 3pts Manchester City to win at 3/4 (General)
- 1.5pts Erling Haaland to score anytime at 49/50 (Unibet)
- 0.5pt Harry Kane to be carded at 7/1 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Tottenham 0-3 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct at 1215 GMT (03/02/23)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Expert xG analysis and features
- Transfer news and done deals
- Football and other sports tips
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
