Tottenham v Leeds tips: Premier League best bets and preview
Super Sunday sees Tottenham take on Leeds and Tom Carnduff has found value in best involving the away side.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Leeds to have 13+ total shots at 6/5 (Betfair)
1pt Leeds to have 21+ tackles at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
Super Sunday's main event sees Antonio Conte's Tottenham welcome Leeds in a game that has the feel of one that could go either way. The Whites' start to the season was disappointing but performances have been getting better.
Marcelo Bielsa's side drew 1-1 with Leicester prior to the international break but won the xG battle by a scoreline of 1.79 to 1.03. The same can be said for the 1-1 draw with Wolves - Leeds had the better of the opportunities with 1.80 xG to 1.03.
They're 7/2 outsiders here but we can't completely rule out their chances. Spurs' managerial change came because of poor results and dull performances and - even with an international break giving time to work with the squad - Conte has a huge task on his hands to turn things around.
Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Tottenham 3/4 | Draw 14/5 | Leeds 7/2
Spurs' two games of the Conte era have seen a 3-2 win over Vitesse in the Europa Conference League and a less than inspiring 0-0 draw at Everton but one of the eye-catching elements of those outings is that the opposition had more chances to score.
Vitesse posted 16 shots to Tottenham's 11 while Everton had 12 compared with eight. Against a Leeds team who average the sixth-highest average shots per game in the Premier League (14.3), it does open up some value.
At a best price of 6/5, backing LEEDS TO HAVE 13+ TOTAL SHOTS looks a good play. That's something they have done on multiple occasions this season.
Three of their away games this season have seen 13 or more shots. Ones that fell short include a game against Southampton where they performed really poorly, a cup contest at Fulham where they changed almost the entire XI (12 shots) and 12 against Burnley.
The fact that they have had at least 13 in their last two away outings in all competitions is an indicator of Leeds finding their previous attacking form that wasn't there at the beginning of the campaign.
Obviously there has been a change of head coach but prior to that, Tottenham were averaging 14.2 shots conceded per home Premier League game - that is the fifth-highest in the division.
One area that Leeds also excel in is tackles and LEEDS TO HAVE 21+ TACKLES is value at an odds-against price. They are among the leaders in the Premier League in this category.
Only Everton (19.8) and Brighton (19.1) see more tackles per game than Leeds (18.5) this season but their away games is where they tend to make up the numbers. Leicester (21.3) are the only team to better Leeds' 20.2.
The thing about Leeds' away tackle count is that it remains pretty consistent and the average isn't affected by one game that saw a huge return. Across the five away games, the range has been from 17 to 23.
It would have won in three of their league games on the road and two of those were the most recent games against Norwich and Southampton. It is something they have been good at since their return to the Premier League.
Bielsa's men topped the average tackles per game chart last season with 19.5 and they were also first for both home and away. The away figure stood at 19.8 - this isn't a one-off exclusive to this season.
Across the four seasons with Bielsa at the helm, Leeds have averaged 18.95 tackles per away game. That's impressive when we consider that the average is knocked down by the 16.5 posted in 2019/20 when they cruised to the Sky Bet Championship title.
It will be an interesting contest and one that has the potential for all three outcomes. Therefore the outright market is best avoided, with the value coming in LEEDS SHOTS and LEEDS TACKLES instead.
Tottenham v Leeds best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Leeds to have 13+ total shots at 6/5 (Betfair)
- 1pt Leeds to have 21+ tackles at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Tottenham 1-1 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1100 BST (19/11/21)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling.
Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose. If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
MOST READ FOOTBALL
FOOTBALL TIPS
