Tottenham v Chelsea tips: Premier League Super Sunday best bets and preview
Tottenham host Chelsea on Sunday, and Jake Osgathorpe is very keen on opposing the hosts, selecting a few best bets as he previews the game.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2.5pts Chelsea to win at 5/6 (Betfred)
1.5pts Chelsea to keep a clean sheet at 5/4 (General)
Ah, Tottenham. Three straight wins to start the season filled them and their fans with hope, but all of that was sapped out of the club thanks to the 3-0 thrashing at the hands of Crystal Palace - hardly the best team in the league.
While the result isn't the end of the world, the performance was. Before Japhet Tanganga was sent off, Spurs had mustered just one shot equating to 0.04 xG. They were non-existent from an attacking standpoint throughout the entire match.
Defensively they capitulated, allowing 2.88 xGA, and that kind of result was coming for Nuno Espirito Santo's side.
Heading into the international break, they sat top of the Premier League table with nine points, but they occupied 11th in Infogol's xG table having accumulated 3.7 expected points (xP). They now sit 15th on expected points with 3.8.
Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Tottenham 19/5 | Draw 13/5 | Chelsea 3/4
Granteed, we are working with small sample sizes, but Spurs's average of 0.95 xPoints per game under Nuno is considerably worst than under Jose Mourinho last season (1.43), so we are yet to see much progress - if any.
There are of course caveats, but the fact that they have lost the xG battle in three of their four league games - only besting Watford narrowly (xG: TOT 1.19 - 0.67 WAT) - and allowed 1.95 xGA per game doesn't bode well at all.
Going forward, they have been without Harry Kane for a few games, and now Heung-Min Son could be missing, but based on the underlying numbers, only Watford and Aston Villa have a worse non-penalty attacking process than Spurs.
That's an issue, particularly heading into this game against arguably the best defensive team in the Premier League.
To sum it up, Spurs are still performing like a mid-table team, and unless anything changes, they will again finish outside of the top six - and maybe miss out on Europe all together.
Chelsea look like a bit of a juggernaut currently. In their two games since the international break, they have been far from impressive, but have won both games to nil while playing in second gear - that should worry the Premier League.
Romelu Lukaku is doing what Chelsea need of him - scoring crucial goals from few chances. He has been the difference between them winning both matches against Aston Villa and Zenit, something they didn't have last season.
If you couple that clinical finishing with a solid defence, you have a title winning team. All in all, since Thomas Tuchel took charge, Chelsea have averaged 1.66 non-pen xGF and 0.73 non-pen xGA per game. That is a recipe for success.
To improve further, the Blues would need to create more chances regularly, and that may come as their attack continues to gel around the giant Belgian.
Our first bet though, comes when looking at the Tottenham attack v Chelsea defence match-up. To put it bluntly, it looks a mismatch.
Under Tuchel, Chelsea have been the best defensive team in the Premier League, whereas Spurs are finding it really difficult to create opportunities, so the 5/4 available generally about CHELSEA TO KEEP A CLEAN SHEET simply looks too good to turn down.
Our second bet is a simple one - BACK CHELSEA TO WIN THE GAME.
It is hugely surprising to see the Blues available at 4/5 generally and a best price of 5/6 to win this game. If we go back to the start of the season, Manchester City were around the 1/2 mark to win at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium - and they should have won, too (xG: TOT 1.30 - 2.41 MCI).
I don't think Chelsea are as far behind City as the price differential suggests. From a price perspective, 1/2 (1.50) to 5/6 (1.83) is a big jump, and I reckon Chelsea are being underestimated here, which is surprising.
The underlying numbers paint a damning picture for Spurs, plus if we add in the fact that they played away in Rennes on Thursday night in the Europa Conference League - suffering a few injuries in that game - then Chelsea's price to win the game looks even better.
While it won't be a flashy scoreline, I am expecting a controlled and professional win for the Blues, heaping more misery on their London rivals.
Tottenham v Chelsea score prediction and best bets
- 2.5pts Chelsea to win at 5/6 (Betfred)
- 1.5pts Chelsea to keep a clean sheet at 5/4 (General)
Score prediction: Tottenham 0-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 0945 BST (17/09/21)
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