Liam Kelly previews an intriguing all-Premier League match-up in the fourth round of the FA Cup, picking out his best bets for Tottenham's hosting of Brighton.
Football betting tips: FA Cup
2pts Tottenham to win in 90 minutes at 19/20 (Unibet)
This is the first time these two top-tier teams have met this season, with their scheduled December fixture in the league postponed after a Covid outbreak in the Spurs squad.
Since then, a drastic improvement has taken place at Tottenham.
The Premier League meeting in question between Spurs and Brighton would have been Antonio Conte's second game in charge of the club following a 0-0 draw at Everton.
Instead, Conte took advantage of the time spared to implement his ideas onto a talented, albeit struggling, squad.
After that two week break in play, Tottenham have been excellent for the most part, averaging an incredible 2.76 expected goals for (xGF) and 0.94 expected goals against (xGA) per game before a 2-0 defeat at Chelsea last time out (xG: CHE 1.25 - 0.36 TOT).
That came as no surprise, though, as Spurs were comfortably beaten by Chelsea in both legs of their Carabao Cup semi-final before the league meeting, seemingly just a bad match-up for Conte's side.
Brighton, on the other hand, are a team that Spurs should be favoured against in their current Conte guise.
Admittedly, the Seagulls are flying this season, sitting in the top half of the Premier League following the outstanding work Graham Potter has done with the club.
Potter, of course, will be frustrated by the continued lack of poise in front of goal, scoring just 23 goals from 29.1 xG in the Premier League this term.
At the other end, Brighton are still strong, averaging 1.20 xGA per game in the league. Defensive numbers worthy of their good position in the table.
Spurs' improved form might be tough to keep out, however, which makes TOTTENHAM TO WIN IN 90 MINUTES value at a shade of odds-on (19/20).
Brighton have caused Spurs issues previously, but this is a different Tottenham side, one that is playing at the level of a Premier League title contender.
With the benefit of home advantage, solid moves in the transfer window and the possibility that Son Heung-min returns for this game, they should oust Brighton from the FA Cup here. Back them to do so.
Tottenham v Brighton best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Tottenham to win at 19/20 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Tottenham 3-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Odds correct at 1140 GMT (03/02/22)
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