Thursday brings a North London derby with added spice, as fourth spot is to be decided between Tottenham and Arsenal. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, selecting his best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals at 11/10 (10bet, SportNation)
There is an awful lot riding on this North London derby, with a win for Arsenal cementing fourth place and Champions League football, while a win for Spurs reduces the gap between the pair to just a point with two games remaining.
Spurs come into the game on the back of a solid display in a 1-1 draw at Anfield, a game in which they limited a Liverpool side who have averaged nearly 2.80 xGF per home game this term to just 1.36, though this will be a different type of performance and approach from Antonio Conte's men.
Arsenal have won four straight as they head to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, beating Chelsea and West Ham away in that time, as Mikel Arteta's side have found a groove.
It is set to be a fiercely contested match on Thursday, and one that should see plenty of goalmouth action.
Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Thursday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Tottenham 21/20 | Draw 13/5 | Arsenal 12/5
Spurs have been excellent at home under Conte, averaging 2.18 xGF and 0.93 xGA per game across 12 matches, winning eight of those.
That xGF average has only been bettered by Liverpool and Manchester City since the Italian took charge, highlighting the attacking capability of this Tottenham team.
If we add into the mix the fact that they NEED to win this game, then we may see a very forward-thinking Spurs side.
Arsenal need to be wary of that, but will be more than happy to give their rivals some of their own medicine - hit them on the counter-attack.
It was a tactic we saw work so effectively at Stamford Bridge not long ago, when the Gunners won 4-2 off the back of some fast transitions.
In general, they have been steady on the road this season. If we take away trips to the Etihad and Anfield, where they conceded 4.22 and 3.50 xGA respectively, Arsenal have averaged 1.46 xGF and 1.21 xGA per away game this term.
I am fully expecting this to be a slug-fest, with chances and goals at either end given what's at stake and the attacking qualities (plus defensive vulnerabilities) each side have.
So, I am more than happy to back BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE AND OVER 2.5 GOALS at odds-against.
Tottenham home games have gone Over 2.5 Goals 71% of the time, while 59% of Arsenal away matches have seen three or more goals.
This bet has won in six of Spurs 12 home games under Conte and in six of Arsenal's last 11 away matches, and with so much on the line for the hosts in particular, we can expect an open game that should see attacking units trump their defensive counterparts.
Tottenham v Arsenal best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals at 11/10 (10bet, SportNation)
Score prediction: Tottenham 2-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 1130 BST (10/05/22)
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