Football betting tips: EFL
Saturday
1.5pts Bristol City to beat Preston (12:30) at 4/5 (General)
1pt Sheffield United to beat Blackburn (12:30) at 13/10 (General)
1pt Burnley & Sunderland (12:30) both to win at 1.67/1 (William Hill)
1pt Leyton Orient & Charlton (15:00) both to win at 2.08/1 (Coral)
1pt Birmingham & Bradford (15:00) both to win at 1.42/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Barrow to beat Colchester (15:00) at 15/4 (bet365)
1pt Doncaster to beat Notts County (15:00) at 15/8 (General)
I know it's a cliché to say, but I actually can't believe how quickly the final day of the Sky Bet EFL season has come around.
What's great is that we have a fair bit to play for still. Each division has something to decide to varying degrees. We're yet to know the title winner, who will be in the play-offs or who's going down in the Championship.
It really is the most thrilling time of the season. In all honesty, I almost switch off from what's going on in the Premier League.
The play-offs provide phenomenal entertainment every single time. It's the best thing to watch if your team isn't involved; it's a hellish couple of weeks if they are.
I'll once again make the point I made in last week's column because it feels important on Saturday: Just because a team needs to win, it doesn't mean that they will win.
The table doesn't lie - particularly after 45 games. A team is in the bottom three for a reason; a team is at the top for a reason.
Sure, you get odd results but I'm siding with what we've seen across the course of the campaign, and with the results-based approach delivering decent profit last weekend, I'll go down a similar route for this edition.
Sheffield United vs Blackburn
- Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Home 13/10 | Draw 23/10 | Away 2/1
I don't buy into Sheffield United having nothing to play for on final weekend.
Chris Wilder has spoken repeatedly of his desire to reach 90 points and a draw with Blackburn on Saturday will achieve just that - he'll certainly be after more though.
The Blades looked back to their best when beating Stoke last week and the 13/10 on a HOME WIN here looks big.
Blackburn still have a chance of the play-offs. They're outside of the top six by a single point but some bookmakers go as big as 5/1 that they achieve it.
They need favours from elsewhere in order for it to happen. But just because the table suggests the game matters more to them isn't a guarantee of success.
Chris Wilder is still eying records after missing out on automatic promotion 💪 pic.twitter.com/lK3EFSnAWf
— Sky Sports Football (@SkyFootball) April 25, 2025
Wilder's side have lost just twice at home to teams below them this season. One of those came during the recent run which ended their automatic promotion hopes, the other being a surprise 3-0 defeat to Hull - that in the middle of a three-game winning run either side.
United have won 15 at home this season and a 16th feels important. The scenes at full-time on Friday night signalled a togetherness and a bit of belief from the Blades faithful - the same is required at Bramall Lane.
Given you're getting odds-against across the board, the hosts look to be the bet.
Bristol City vs Preston
- Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Home 3/4 | Draw 13/5 | Away 7/2
The fixture list can be so cruel.
Bristol City and Preston - mid-table Championship friends for so long - go into the final day knowing the significant of this contest.
A win for the hosts secures their spot in the play-offs. Defeat for the visitors may well see them relegated.
It's the EFL equivalent of Shawn Michaels beating Ric Flair at WrestleMania XXIV. Bristol City don't want to inflict the Sweet Chin Music but they may have to emotionally do just that.
Prices of 4/5 and slightly above are available on a BRISTOL CITY WIN which is worth backing considering the contrasting seasons.
Liam Manning's side may have lost their last two but I don't like to fully judge teams based on a trip to Leeds, a side who may well win the title with 100 points on their tally.
For Preston, they've lost their last four, with five of the last seven ending in defeats. The most concerning element of that is that the two most recent results have been against relegation-threatened Hull and virtually relegated Plymouth.
I'll side with the play-off hopeful getting the much-needed win.
Odds correct at 1120 BST (02/05/25)
Burnley vs Millwall
- Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Home 4/7 | Draw 29/10 | Away 9/2
Two teams who actually have something to play for on final day. Burnley will be hoping they'll be lifting the title in front of their own supporters while Millwall could finish the day in the play-offs.
For that to happen, they'll need a favour from Middlesbrough who face Coventry and the circumstances aren't favourable - it's why they're 7/1 outsiders in the market for a top six finish.
Considering they've enjoyed a season so remarkable that they could gain 100 points and finish as runners-up, siding with BURNLEY TO WIN feels an bet which once again stands out.
It's yet another case of Scott Parker's side looking overpriced in the betting. While I do agree that Leeds are a better team, and the statistics back this up, the two are constantly priced up in different manners.
All Burnley can do in their title hopes is win and hope for a Leeds slip-up. With one game remaining, I'll back them to go the entire league campaign unbeaten at home.
Sunderland vs QPR
- Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Home 3/5 | Draw 14/5 | Away 9/2
So, about that Sunderland 'playing their first XI and everything's fine again' approach.
Regis Le Bris' side were beaten by Oxford last time out to weirdly put a bit of pressure on a final game which has no impact on the standings.
Three points and Sunderland don't go move. No points and Sunderland don't move. But a SUNDERLAND WIN really does feel important for some play-offs momentum.
They've got a good chance of that at least considering the mess QPR are currently in.
Martà Cifuentes was placed on gardening leave on Tuesday meaning Kevin Betsy and Xavi Calm take joint-charge of this one.
The visitors have been in struggling form on the whole. They were beaten 5-0 by Burnley last time out to make it seven defeats from their last 12.
Sunderland's own form can be explained by their constant changing of players to keep them well rested with their fate known for a while. Now, it's as strong as possible, a side which would reflect the first leg.
With QPR having failed to beaten any side currently sat above them away, I'll take Sunderland preparing for the play-offs with maximum returns.
Charlton vs Burton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Home 8/13 | Draw 13/5 | Away 19/5
It's quite remarkable that we're talking about Burton as a League One side again going into the final day of the season.
They didn't secure their first win over the season until beating Shrewsbury on November 9 - their 15th game of the campaign.
When they drew with Crawley on January 18, the Brewers were bottom of the table and 11 points adrift of safety already. They'd secured just 20% of the points available to them.
But Gary Bowyer's done an incredible job and the draw with Wigan in midweek secured their status as a third tier club.
Even with this remarkable turnaround, I'm still siding with a CHARLTON WIN on Saturday.
Nathan Jones' side saw their status as a play-off side confirmed following defeat to Wrexham last time out yet there are still positions to play for. They could finish fourth which would give them home advantage in the second leg.
Charlton have been fantastic at home all season. They've lost just two of 22 with 14 ending in victory - their last home league defeat came on December 3.
The Addicks will know the importance of going into the play-offs on the back of a win, and with the pressure now off Burton, siding with the hosts to take all three points provides appeal.
Huddersfield vs Leyton Orient
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Home 11/4 | Draw 12/5 | Away 5/6
Huddersfield fans will be looking forward to this game, solely for the reason that they're 90 minutes from an awful season coming to a close.
The Terriers lacked the bite required to make the play-offs despite having a squad and manager initially who looked capable of doing just that.
Michael Duff departed at the beginning of March and Jon Worthington's interim spell has delivered defeat after defeat - 11 of their last 14 have been losses.
Leyton Orient are in town on Saturday who do hold the advantage in the play-off race. All they need to do is match Reading's result and they're in.
It's worthwhile backing a LEYTON ORIENT win.
A win over Wycombe last week - backed at 9/5 to happen - made it five victories in a row and they'll be heading into this with confidence high, even if the pressure of a positive result is there.
Against a Huddersfield side who will be wanting the whistle as soon as possible, taking the visitors looks good value.
Cambridge vs Birmingham
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Home 19/5 | Draw 11/4 | Away 4/7
A meeting of two sides whose season is done and dusted but for Birmingham, there's an opportunity to secure 111 points.
The financial budget available to them is no secret but they've dominated England's third tier and it quickly became apparent that they were going to finish a mile clear in top spot.
Cambridge are down - nine points adrift of safety.
It marks the last time we'll see a side so good at this level at a price like this, making BIRMINGHAM TO WIN the bet.
The Blues finish the campaign with the best away record in the division and victory here could move them onto 50 points gained in games on the road.
For Cambridge, it's three defeats in their last four and a case of wanting to get to the summer to commence the rebuild.
It'll be no surprise to see Birmingham making up the 'most popular accas' part of bookmakers websites this weekend. I'll side with them signing off in style.
Bradford vs Fleetwood
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Home 4/9 | Draw 29/10 | Away 21/4
Ah, I'll miss this League Two campaign, the one in which seemingly nobody wanted success.
Doncaster and Port Vale finally took the opportunity to go up on the penultimate weekend. Hoping to join them is BRADFORD, who know a WIN over Fleetwood on final day will do just that.
Graham Alexander's side were beaten by Donny last weekend yet nobody capitalised - thanks largely to the continuation of Walsall's collapse.
Bradford are without a win in four yet they have the added extra of a significant crowd at this level. It is an advantage and opposition teams can crumble under the pressure.
It's no surprise that every ticket has been snapped up for this one - a new club record league attendance will be set this weekend.
Fleetwood's 2-0 win over Newport last time out brought an end to their four game winless run and they've failed to put together anything more than two consecutive victories under Pete Wild.
They've also lost a number of games away to those sat above them. The Bantams have passed up opportunities to seal their top three spot; I'll back them to take the final one.
Notts County vs Doncaster
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Home 13/10 | Draw 23/10 | Away 17/10
Notts County can still secure automatic promotion but for that to happen they'll need favours from elsewhere.
Three points separates themselves and Bradford but they do hold a better goal difference by two. A victory over Doncaster is required alongside defeats for both Bradford and Walsall.
The first part of that is problematic, which is why I'm taking the 15/8 on DONCASTER TO WIN.
Rovers may well have promotion secured but they could still win the title. They're a point ahead of Port Vale and know a victory here secures top spot.
And they've been the division's best travellers with just six of their 22 on the road ending in defeat. Notts County's home form ranks them 10th of the 24 - concerning for a promotion hopeful.
In 11 games against others in the top seven, County's record reads two wins, two draws and seven defeats. Gaining results against those at the top end has been a problem and it could be an even bigger one in the play-offs.
With the title on the line, I'll side with the league's top side getting the job done.
Odds correct at 1600 BST (01/05/25)
Colchester vs Barrow
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Home 3/4 | Draw 11/5 | Away 10/3
Colchester need favours from elsewhere if they are to make the play-offs - a lot of favours too - yet it also relies on them beating Barrow on final day.
The issue they have is that their form is not one of a team who should be in the top seven. Just two of their last eight have ended in victory which includes crucial defeats to Grimsby and Salford.
Barrow have little to play for in terms of the table but at a best price of 15/4, I'll have a go on the AWAY WIN.
The visitors come into the game on the back of a six-game unbeaten run. They've lost just one of their last 12. While draws have been present it's a significant improvement on their previous returns.
They've never truly been in relegation trouble but their current position 17 points clear of the drop reflects their turnaround in fortunes under Andy Whing's guidance.
Eight wins and five draws sit on the record from 19 games at the helm and he'll be using this game as a continuation for building for the new campaign.
Colchester are also without key figures. Top goalscorer Lyle Taylor and influential loan midfielder Jamie McDonnell will be out through injury, as is Harry Anderson.
It's a big enough price to tempt me into backing the upset.
Odds correct at 0950 BST (01/05/25) unless otherwise stated
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