- Tom Carnduff's Fußball am Freitag: P/L: +19.25pts | ROI: 55% | Staked: 35pts | Returned: 54.25pts
Football betting tips: Bundesliga
1pt Alessio Castro-Montes 1+ assists at 5/1 (bet365)
1pt Christian Eriksen 1+ assists at 5/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Castro-Montes & Eriksen 1+ assists each at 33/1 (bet365)
'Derby day can deliver' was the headline for the last edition of this column. Abysmal decision-making in the final third ensured that St. Pauli's clash with Hamburg did not do that.
The European action in midweek means that we're given a mid-table battle on Friday night. Neither side will make it to the top six places, neither at real risk of relegation.
Koln sit a single point ahead of Wolfsburg in the Bundesliga table. It's a meeting between 10th and 12th but don't let that put you off - these two sides played out a thriller in September.
A 3-3 draw saw three goals scored in second-half added time. Maximilian Arnold thought he netted the winner for Wolfsburg on 90+9' only for Jakub Kaminski to pop up with an equaliser five minutes later.
Sure, it may have come under previous Wolfsburg management but there were 14 shots on target that day. It was a contest which delivered action at both ends.
Under Daniel Bauer's guidance, Wolfsburg's contests have been largely entertaining. They scored three in wins over Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin while being edged out 4-3 by Freiburg. Oh, they were hammered 8-1 by Bayern too.
Friday's games in this league have been low-scoring compared to the usual nature of this division. The involvement of the visitors could well ensure it goes against the grain.
Köln vs Wolfsburg
- Kick-off: Friday, 19:30 GMT
- TV: BBC iPlayer, Bundesliga YouTube
- Live odds, form and stats
Six of Köln's nine at home this season have seen three or more scored but the bookmakers are offering 8/13 across the board on a similar outcome here - that's just a bit too short for real interest.
Instead, a route into the contest looks to be targeting those who could be involved in the goals. Each side has one player who has stood out from a creative perspective.
Let's start with the home side and the 5/1 for ALESSIO CASTRO-MONTES 1+ ASSISTS. He's excelled in this area since gaining a starting role in the side.
Castro-Montes really does hit the definition of a 'utility man'. He's one of those you'd love on Football Manager because you can stick him anywhere and he'll do a job.
He's been alternating between the full-back positions across his past three games but those outings have delivered a combined three assists from a huge 14 chances created.
His crossing has been superb. Team mates have been found with perfectly weighted balls across and he has the ability to find others from range. It can be a real problem for the opposition.
It's a price which is worth taking now given his recent involvement. Should Castro-Montes continue on the current trajectory, this will be much shorter in future.
And on the Wolfsburg side of things, CHRISTIAN ERIKSEN stands out for 1+ ASSISTS at the same price, even if he may feature in a more central position here.
Eriksen has shifted to a wider role following Bauer's appointment and that's led to three assists across his last seven Bundesliga - six of those having at least a chance created.
He registered a significant five chances when getting an assist in the draw with Heidenheim a couple of weeks ago and this season, 84% of his league starts returned a chance created for others.
There's also a presence on set-pieces which is a bonus for any assists-based bet.
Considering the short price on goals, the value comes in siding with two players who have been involved in them in recent weeks.
Odds correct at 14:25 GMT (28/01/26)
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