Our team pick out their best bets for a busy Easter Monday of action in the Premier League and Sky Bet EFL.
1pt Middlesbrough v Watford: Ken Sema to score anytime at 6/1 (Unibet)
1pt Watford (-1 handicap) to beat Middlesbrough at 4/1 (General)
2pts Leyton Orient to beat Walsall at 13/10 (General) (NAP)
0.5pts Peterborough v Sunderland: Sammie Szmodics to score from outside the area at 28/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Peterborough v Sunderland: Charlie Wyke to score anytime at 11/5 (Unibet)
2pts Cardiff to score 2+ goals against Sheff Wed at 6/4 (General)
1pt Crystal Palace to beat Everton at 17/4 (BetVictor)
1pt West Ham to beat Wolves 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Wolves v West Ham: Jesse Lingard 3+ Total Shots at 2/1 (Sky Bet)
The 6/1 available on KEN SEMA to score anytime look too big given a recent switch.
Looking at the 1-0 victory over Barnsley backwards, a period of 20 games where Sema was largely in a more traditional wide midfield role or in the defence, he was averaging 0.25 shots per game. Over his last 11 starts, where he's been more advanced as a winger/forward, the shot average has jumped up to 1.18 per game. He's scored five goals.
The odds-against price on a win is decent enough and the 6/5 should definitely be considered. However, given the form they are in, it's worth taking the 4/1 on WATFORD TO WIN ON THE -1 HANDICAP.
Three of Watford's last six victories have all been by a two-goal or greater margin while Middlesbrough were beaten 3-1 by Bournemouth last time out - the fourth time they have lost by two goals or more in their last 14 games.
Odds correct at 1230 BST (04/04/21)
With one win in 18 games between Boxing Day and the end of March – collecting a measly 11 points from a possible 54 during that run – it’s no wonder Walsall are bottom of every Sky Bet League Two form table you could conjure.
The Saddlers have pinched a few draws in that run, granted, but, usually, when they have come up against anyone decent – Newport, Cheltenham, Bradford, Cambridge, Bolton, Salford, Carlisle – they have lost.
So, it’s a head-scratcher that LEYTON ORIENT – chasing down the play-off pack on a fine run under caretaker boss Jobi McAnuff – are 13/10 to come out on top at home. They should be much shorter and provided a winner at 16/5 on Friday.
Odds correct at 1530 GMT (02/04/21)
Eight of Wednesday's 17 games against the current top-10 this season have ended in defeat. Seven of those have seen the opposition score at least twice and the 6/4 general price on CARDIFF TO SCORE 2+ GOALS in this game is worth backing on that basis.
In fact, 14 of their 20 defeats this season have had the opposition score twice.
On the flip side, Cardiff boast a strong record against teams in the bottom-half. Eleven of their 19 games against sides currently 13th downwards has also seen them score two or more. At a good odds-against price, the value is there in backing them to continue that trend.
Odds correct at 1630 GMT (04/04/21)
The pattern of this match seems straightforward to predict, with Everton expected to dominate the ball and take the game to Roy Hodgson’s side. Fortunately for Palace, this will suit them down to the ground. An early goal for the Toffees would completely change the complexion of the match, but the longer the game stays 0-0, the bigger the chance of a Crystal Palace win.
Everton have won just one game at home since victory over Arsenal before Christmas, which makes their odds-on price too short, and in turn means a price of 17/4 for a CRYSTAL PALACE WIN makes plenty of appeal.
Over the past 16 Premier League games, there’s a 10-point difference between the pair in terms of Expected Points (xP) earned, whilst Wolves’ Expected Goals (xG) output during that period is ranked almost on the same level as beleaguered Sheffield United.
However, with the draw a potential runner, I’m instead going to bolster the odds on offer for an away success by ignoring the straight Match Odds and take up the appetising 9/4 on WEST HAM TO WIN 1,0, 2-0 OR 2-1.
Nine of the Hammers’ 14 league triumphs this term have been covered by one of those three correct scores.
JESSE LINGARD has made a significant impact on West Ham’s final-third ability with the confident forward keen to try his luck at goal whenever the opportunity presents.
He has attempted 21 shots across his seven league appearances for West Ham, firing at least two shots at goal in five of those fixtures. In four of those matches, the 28-year-old has had at least three efforts and a repeat looks overpriced at 2/1.
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