Our team have their match previews and best bets for the latest round of Champions League fixtures.
BVB did win 3-2 in the Bundesliga at the weekend at Stuttgart, but that was the sixth time in their last seven matches that Dortmund have conceded two or more goals in a match.
Over that period, they have allowed a huge 1.67 expected goals against per game (xGA), which is simply not good enough for a team that boasts such talent.
Across the Premier League and Champions League this season, Manchester City have allowed an eye-watering average of just 0.71 xGA per game.
That is a remarkable improvement on last season’s average of 1.01, which shows just how suffocating they are being defensively.
In my opinion, City will limit Dortmund to very little, while creating at the other end, so I like the price of 9/5 available about a MANCHESTER CITY WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS.
This bet has won in 14 of Manchester City’s 31 Premier League matches this season (45%) and in seven of their nine Champions League matches this season (78%) so a price of 9/5 with an implied probability of 36% looks a value bet.
Score prediction: Dortmund 1-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
t is a big ask for Liverpool to stop Real Madrid from scoring, but first on the agenda for Jurgen Klopp’s side will be getting a goal or two for themselves, and as Liverpool flood men forward in search of goals, they will leave gaps for the likes of Toni Kroos and Luka Modric to exploit with their exquisite passing.
As the week has progressed, the big price movements have been in the goals markets, with punters expecting to see plenty of goals in this fixture.
Over 3.5 was initially priced up at around the 7/4 mark when the opening prices were released for this match, but plenty of firms have now trimmed anything close to that price, with some going as short as 11/8.
That leaves a price of 8/5 with Betfair about OVER 3.5 GOALS landing in this fixture very appealing, and with the attacking propensity of these two teams, that is the selection we are siding with in this game.
Score prediction: Liverpool 2-2 Real Madrid (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 1700 BST (12/04/21)
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