Burnley 1-2 Newcastle: Allan Saint-Maximin inspires comeback win

"Newcastle could be handed a huge fitness boost should top-scorer Callum Wilson be declared fit to start, while Allan Saint-Maximin is also in contention to make the starting XI. The Frenchman came off the bench against Spurs and impressed with his entertaining brand of football. He would be a massive plus for Steve Bruce’s side were he to make the line-up."

In previewing Newcastle's trip to Burnley, Jake Pearson called it almost perfectly. It just turned out that Wilson and, especially, Saint-Maximin didn't even need to start.

In fact, their impact as substitutes was arguably far greater.

• CLICK HERE for Allan Saint-Maximin's Infogol stats and profile
• CLICK HERE for Callum Wilson's Infogol stats and profile

Trailing to Matej Vydra’s first-half goal, Newcastle looked uninspired before Steve Bruce brought on Saint-Maximin and Wilson in the 57th minute, on the verge of conceding a second goal, as Burnley lay siege to Martin Dubravka's net.

Within seven minutes, Newcastle's mercurial number 10 had turned the game on its head to snatch a 2-1 victory and move the Toon six points clear of the Premier League relegation zone.

Saint-Maximin's first involvement, 90 seconds after being introduced alongside Wilson, in place of Joelinton and Dwight Gayle, was a tricky run and perfect lay-off for Jacob Murphy, who deliciously swept home.

That was a run-of-the-mill strike compared to Saint-Maximin's individual brilliance five minutes later, as he drove from halfway before firing past a helpless Bailey Peacock-Farrell from the edge of the box.

Some impact.

'Frightening numbers'

For Newcastle, this season's storyline has been dominated by Steve Bruce's perceived turgid, negative tactics.

According to Infogol's performance-based table, based on expected goals (xG), they are in a relegation dogfight because they simply aren't good enough. Even when flying high early season, their underlying numbers suggested they couldn't keep getting away with smash-and-grab wins.

What is expected goals (xG)?

• Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
• Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
• Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team

Time and again, Bruce has been forced to stoutly defend himself, with the Magpies boss claiming the style adopted is needs must - it best suits the squad available to him, one low on attacking quality. This half-hour cameo from one of the Premier League's most exciting attacking players offers clear evidence to support that theory, and gave reasons to be both hopeful and fearful if you're a Newcastle fan.

The instant transformation in Newcastle's play, and belief, the moment Wilson and Saint-Maximin entered the fray was quite incredible.

When you dig a little deeper into the stats, is it any wonder?

When should I back Newcastle?

Both have been injury-plagued this term. For the Frenchman, it was only his 18th league appearance of the season. For Wilson, his 22nd - and first in more than two months.

With Callum Wilson, Newcastle average 1.27 points per game (ppg). Without 0.44.

With Allan Saint-Maximin it's 1.33 ppg. Without 0.62. They are frightening numbers.

The only reason Newcastle aren't relegated already is because this duo have been fit for just about the bare minimum number of games required. It means Bruce's men are likely to scrape enough points to survive, and may well have already done so.

The away win delivered a 5/2 success for Sporting Life followers, a tip based on multiple factors, including the increased value of the price given the likely return of Newcastle's two most important players.

But even with them, 1.30 points per game is still pretty abject. They turn Newcastle from being bottom of the table, to lower mid-table.

So rather than seeing it as a reason to consistently get behind the Magpies, it is more a case of consistently opposing them when Wilson and Saint-Maximin are unavailable.

While those seven minutes at Turf Moor may have offered a glimpse into what could be possible for Newcastle with their best XI fit and firing, what it should bring into sharp focus is just how bad they are without them.

Lose either in the summer and next season could be a frightening one.

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