The Kelly Criterion: What lies are the league table and the data telling us in the Premier League?
Lies. Mistruths. Falsehoods. Misinformation. Fake news.
Whatever the label, there's a lot of it going around these days, seemingly fair game for the shameless in the current climate. If you're brazen enough to endure the backlash, there will almost always be acolytes.
On that note, I'd like to thank Erik ten Hag and his post-match comments after Manchester United's 3-1 defeat to Arsenal for strengthening my introduction, which before the final game prior to the break was going to be loosely based on the premise of lies.
'The league table never lies' is a cliché I'm sure everyone reading this has heard, and perhaps questioned, at least once. Well... it does.
Actually, to say it lies may be a bit strong. It states very particular facts without context, from which a web of lies can be spun. In truth, data does the same in the small sample size of football we've experienced this season, and determining the instances where this happens can pay dividends down the line.
Some are obvious, some less so, but let's try and find a few.
Encouragement for Everton?
Everton started their season with three losses without a goal scored, a terrible start by almost any measure.
Still, Sean Dyche's side did manage to create chances across the defeats, especially in the home games against Fulham and Wolves, recording 2.7 and 1.3 expected goals (xG) respectively.
Finishing was clearly a problem area in those matches, but summer signings Beto and Arnaut Danjuma linked well as Everton finally hit the back of the net in a 2-2 draw at Sheffield United on Saturday, looking like an upgrade that had been desperately needed at the top end of the pitch for the Toffees.
Two goals scored from 7.1 xG still reads very poorly, but the new pairing provide some encouragement that opportunities might be taken, and perhaps created, at a better rate.
Everton host Arsenal and visit Brentford on return from the international break, making it tough to see immediate results, but successive Goodison Park games against Luton and Bournemouth are both candidates for attacking output.
Forest defence fragile
It's been a mixed bag of actual results and underlying data for Nottingham Forest so far this season, but, despite the tough start to the schedule, I'd be wary of Steve Cooper's side from a defensive perspective.
A total of 0.8 expected goals against (xGA) was more to do with game state and opposition rustiness in the opening game of their season. Arsenal were up 2-0 early and took their foot off the pedal.
Despite allowing just 0.5 xGA when hosting Sheffield United, Forest went unpunished for some absolute panic in their backline, a lack of attacking threat from the Blades providing some relief.
Forest held the lead for a long time at Manchester United and beat Chelsea away from home, so higher xGA figures can be expected in those matches, but totals of 2.8 and 2.3 respectively are still very high, even if the Blues failed to capitalise on chances last time out.
They have some important fixtures upcoming in terms of possible points, but I'm not sure the defensive unit can be trusted in any game just yet.
Villa defeats don't dissuade me
Unai Emery appears perfectly happy to completely stick to his principles in the early parts of the campaign, no matter the Aston Villa opponent.
With that in mind, I'm happy to gloss over heavy away defeats to Newcastle (5-1) and Liverpool (3-0) when it comes to Villa playing the Premier League teams they are fancied to beat, which is a fairly long list.
It is still curious why the Villa boss has insisted on playing a high defensive line without pressure on the ball against excellent teams that are well equipped to punish them, but dominant wins over Everton (2.9 - 0.6 xG) and Burnley (2.5 - 0.7 xG) have displayed just how good Emery's side can be against the right opposition.
Happy to move personnel forward in numbers, Villa look like a team that should be seriously considered when the match-up suits.
Spurs to start shipping more goals?
Ange Postecoglou's Tottenham have been a breath of fresh air at the start of this Premier League season, with Spurs fans happy to chant that they've got their beloved club back to playing attractive football.
That's certainly the case for the team that sit second at the international break, but they've overperformed their underlying numbers at both ends of the pitch.
The Spurs attack doesn't really worry me at all, even if Richarlison has been under pressure. Tottenham's defence, however, can be exploited in its current guise.
A total of four goals conceded has come from 6.3 xGA, with notable big chances missed by Brentford and Manchester United in the first two games of the season.
I don't wish to burst the Tottenham balloon, and they should have more than enough to dispatch of Sheffield United when the Premier League returns, but the next two matches against Arsenal and Liverpool will severely test the resolve of a Spurs back four that can be exposed.
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