Friday night football comes from the Sky Bet Championship where Forest take on Millwall. Tom Carnduff has two big-priced goalscorer bets.
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Nottingham Forest v Millwall
- Friday March 6 - 1945 GMT kick-off on Sky Sports Football
Nottingham Forest's automatic promotion hopes appear to be over following Monday's 2-2 draw with Middlesbrough.
The result leaves Sabri Lamouchi's men eight points adrift of Leeds in second. They need to find three more wins than Marcelo Bielsa's side with just ten games to go.
Their home form has been a big concern this season with Forest sat 12th in the home standings. They've won less than half their games in front of their own supporters; far from ideal for a side aiming for Premier League football.
In Gary Rowett's Millwall, they take on a club who have shaken off the tag of being a 'home only' team. Having picked up points in 12 of their 18 games on the road this season, it's clear to see that they now have little issue in playing away from the Den.
There's too many 'what if' questions surrounding the outright result, but if I was forced to choose between the trio of outcomes I'd probably settle on a draw at 23/10.
Instead, the value comes in the goalscorer market with two big-priced selections available. Shaun Hutchinson and Jake Cooper, Millwall's centre-back duo, are worth consideration on Friday night.
Millwall appear to be the cliche 'play for set pieces' side but the statistics support the fact that they do have plenty of success from corners and free-kicks.
41% of their goals this season have been from set piece situations, a total of 17 with 18 being from open play. A significant point of interest is that 50% of their goals away from home have also been from set pieces (8/16).
In Nottingham Forest, they face a team who have conceded 29% of their goals from set-pieces. The fact that they score from a lower percentage shows the problems they have in these situations.
Hutchinson's five goals this season demonstrates Millwall's dominance at corners. His average this season has worked out at one goal every five games. His last goal? Four games ago.
Cooper's statistics have been interesting considering he only has one goal on his tally. However, the 6ft 5" defender continues to prove problematic for opposition defences at set pieces.
His five goals last season also demonstrate his ability to find the net and how this campaign has been fairly disappointing for him in front of goal. There's still plenty of time for that to be amended though and this game seems perfect for him to spark that goal-scoring form once again.
At the big prices available, it's worth backing both players to find the net. Hutchinson is the more fancied, but Cooper provides a form of safety net if they are to strike from a corner or free-kick.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 2-2 Millwall (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Best bet: Jake Cooper to score anytime at 18/1
- Nottingham Forest are winless in four league games against Millwall (D2 L2) since a 1-0 win in August 2017.
- Millwall have lost just one of their last nine league meetings with Nottingham Forest (W4 D4).
- This is Nottingham Forest’s first home league game on a Friday since facing Millwall on the opening day of the 2017-18 season, winning 1-0.
- Millwall haven’t scored a league goal in open play in their last 728 minutes of Championship football, since an 82nd-minute Jón Dadi Bödvarsson goal against Reading in January.
- Since the start of the 2017-18 season, Nottingham Forest striker Lewis Grabban has scored more Championship goals than any other player (53).
- Millwall boss Gary Rowett hasn’t won an away match against Nottingham Forest since December 2014 with Birmingham, failing in six games in all competitions since then (D4 L2).
Odds correct at 1230 GMT (05/03/20)
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