Each day we pick out a player and cut through the noise to give analytical, objective insight. Thursday's focus is on Manchester United target Tammy Abraham.
- Age: 25
- Position: Striker
- Club: Roma
- Country: England
Tammy Abraham’s move to Roma from Chelsea may have kept him out of the spotlight back home, but the England international’s exploits in Italy have reportedly earned him admirers in the Premier League amid reports of interest from Manchester United.
There is speculation that the frontman could be lined up for an Old Trafford move and while, on first viewings at least, Abraham’s modest goal statistics might lead to raised eyebrows in Manchester, delve a little deeper and the forward’s potential becomes much clearer.
Yet to miss a match for Jose Mourinho’s side, Abraham is clearly a key component of the unit, but his six goals this term leave him considerably far down the league’s goalscoring list in 17th and a long way behind Serie A-leading Victor Osimhen, who is on 17 for the campaign.
However, when we factor in xG (expected goals) – a metric used to measure a player’s predicted return, based on the likelihood of his chances resulting in a goal – Abraham performs far better when compared to his peers.
Abraham’s xG stands at 9.1, suggesting the forward is on something of a dry streak at present. Over a larger sample size of matches, the difference between is xG and actual goals would be expected to level out.
Furthermore, if we analyse a linked metric called nxpG/95 (non-penalty expected goals per game), we see that the England man is in fact expected to net from open play more often than all but Edin Dzeko – with whom he is tied on 0.52 nxpG/95 – and Osimhen – again leading with 0.68.
One question for clubs when lining up moves for strikers is how effective their new acquisitions, previously accustomed to starting roles, will prove when thrown in to a new team, perhaps as a back-up option or rotational player.
But npxG/Sh data (non-penalty xG per shot) reveals Abraham is more effective with his shot-making than most.
His 0.19 xG per effort rank bests those of Serie A’s leading scorers and puts him fifth overall, suggesting he can be backed to perform well even if deployed over shorter periods.
With the numbers laid bare, it should be evident there is more to Abraham than meets the eye; the data hint that he offers more than his six-goal stand suggests.
