The Premier League returns this weekend, starting with a tasty meeting between Merseyside rivals Everton and Liverpool at Goodison. Tom Carnduff previews of the clash...
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Everton v Liverpool
- 12:30 BST on BT Sport
- Match odds: Home 11/4 | Draw 3/1 | Away 17/20
The first Merseyside derby of the season and the first in a while where we can give Everton's odds for success serious consideration.
Carlo Ancelotti has got this Toffees side playing attractive and effective football with Dominic Calvert-Lewin firing on all fronts in attack. Flanked by Richarlison and James Rodriguez, they look like a team who can battle for European qualification.
Little more needs to be said on Liverpool's 7-2 thrashing at Villa Park; the fall out from that has already been well documented. A flash in the pan moment or the start of something more? You can't imagine this Liverpool side will just collapse overnight but as Villa and Leeds have shown this season, attacking them causes serious issues.
That could play into Everton's hands given the way they now operate. Whichever way the result goes, it should be a contest which sees the main stats markets - shots and tackles - providing real value. As we have highlighted in our Punting Pointers in recent weeks, Leeds lead the way when it comes to tackles but Everton are close behind with an average of 20 per game.
The one player of focus here is Seamus Coleman. The Everton right-back has established himself as a key part of this side and has seen a decent tackle count across the first four games this season. Sky Bet have him at 2/1 to make three or more successful tackles against Liverpool; something he's done twice in recent weeks.
His season average sits at 2.3 but there were three tackles in each of the games against Crystal Palace and West Brom while two came in the win over Brighton. Against a team with such a strong attack, Coleman's tackle count should tick over that three marker.
Another name to consider in this area is Lucas Digne on the opposite flank but his three or more tackles price sits at a less attractive 6/4. He'll have the job of dealing with Mohamed Salah while Coleman focuses on Sadio Mane or Diogo Jota.
The fact that Michael Keane and Yerry Mina are both low tackle count players shows that the majority of the tackles are coming from the full-backs. It's a game which could become basketball like at times, a real end-to-end contest, and that should bring plenty of successful tackles with it.
We talked up Everton's price and with some firms going as big as 3/1, despite their history in this fixture, that may be worth inclusion for some on the Saturday accumulators. It's a tough balance between backing a team who have been in such good form against a wounded animal; the champions were humiliated last time out and will want revenge.
When it comes to that outright option, it is best instead to go with Everton's double chance price of shades of odds-on across the board; most firms offer around the 19/20 mark. The best bet can be found in the tackles market though and taking Coleman at odds of 2/1.
Score prediction: Everton 1-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Best bet: 1pt Seamus Coleman to have 3+ tackles
- Everton are winless in 19 Premier League meetings with Liverpool (D11 L8), since a 2-0 win in October 2010.
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 22 meetings with Everton in all competitions – against no side have they ever had a longer run without defeat in their history (also 22 vs Aston Villa between 1981-1992).
- Seven of the last eight Premier League meetings between Everton and Liverpool at Goodison Park have finished level, with Liverpool winning the other 1-0 in December 2016.
- The last three Premier League meetings between Everton and Liverpool at Goodison Park have finished 0-0 – no specific fixture in English top-flight history has ever finished goalless in four consecutive matches before.
- This is the first top-flight Merseyside derby with Everton starting the day top of the table since September 1989, when Liverpool won 3-1 at Goodison Park thanks to goals from Ian Rush (2) and John Barnes.
- Everton are looking to win their opening five league games for the first time since the 1938-39 campaign – their fifth game that season was a 2-1 victory against the reigning top-flight champions (Arsenal).
- Liverpool have conceded 11 goals in their four Premier League games this season, including seven at Aston Villa last time out. Last season, it took the Reds 13 games to concede 11 goals.
- Liverpool have lost four of their last eight away Premier League games (W3 D1), as many as they had in their previous 46 on the road in the competition (W33 D9 L4). The Reds haven’t lost consecutive Premier League games since September 2015 under Brendan Rodgers.
- Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored nine goals in six appearances for Everton in all competitions this season, making him the top scorer for a player in the top five European leagues so far this term. He could become the first player to score in each of Everton’s first five league games in a season since Tommy Lawton in 1938-39.
- Mohamed Salah has scored 99 goals in 158 games for Liverpool in all competitions. His next goal will see him become the 17th different player to net 100 goals for the Reds, while he would be the third fastest to do so after Roger Hunt (144 games) and Jack Parkinson (153 games).
- This game marks five years to the day since Jürgen Klopp took charge of his first ever Liverpool game (0-0 vs Tottenham). The German has faced Everton without defeat more often than any other side in all competitions in his tenure with the Reds (11 – W7 D4).
Richard Jolly looks at Carlo Ancelotti's impressive stats as Everton look to end a decade of Merseyside derby misery against Liverpool. Take a look by clicking the image below.
Odds correct at 1415 BST (15/10/20)
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