Using expected goals (xG) data, Infogol’s Jake Osgathorpe picks out the best value bets in the overs/unders markets from across the weekend’s Premier League and Championship action.
Infogol is a revolutionary football product, which harnesses Opta data to power an expected goals model. Expected Goals quantifies the quality of a scoring opportunity, allocating each chance a probability of it finding the back of the net.
The xG metric can be used to assess teams and their performances, and it also helps to give an insight into future prospects, which in turn helps with betting.
Man City v Arsenal – Under 3.5 Goals @ 8/11
- Saturday, 17.30
It’s fair to say that Manchester City haven’t got going yet this season, but the international break was perhaps a blessing, allowing them to get Raheem Sterling and Sergio Aguero close to match fitness.
A draw with Leeds last time out was a fortunate one, as they were thoroughly outplayed for the most part and lost the xG battle quite convincingly (xG: LEE 2.71 – 1.45 MCI).
It is quite concerning just how bad they have been so far, with their underlying numbers and raw performances well below the level we have seen over the last three seasons.
So far this campaign, City have created an average of just 1.38 non-penalty xGF per game, some way short of the 2.67 xGF per game they averaged last season.
Against a more defensively organised Arsenal team, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them drop more points here unless they can drastically improve their levels.
Mikel Arteta’s side have been efficient thus far as opposed to flashy, putting in two extremely good defensive performances against Fulham (0.16 xGA) and Sheffield United (0.18 xGA).
However, those performances sandwiched poor displays against West Ham (2.32 xGA) and Liverpool (2.71 xGA), so seemingly against better attacking teams the Gunners remain vulnerable.
Fortunately for Arsenal then, City are yet to look like a strong attacking team this season, and that could well continue again, especially if Kevin De Bruyne isn’t fit for this one.
Arteta did a number on Guardiola in the FA Cup at the back end of last season, and I see Arsenal taking a similar approach here, which could result in a dearth of goals. Under 3.5 looks appealing at a decent enough price.
Newcastle v Man Utd – Under 2.5 Goals @ evens
- Saturday, 20.00
Newcastle picked up their second win of the season before the break, beating Burnley 3-1 in what was a solid performance from Steve Bruce’s side (xG: NEW 1.91 – 0.43 BUR).
However, overall, the Magpies have been disappointing and toothless in attack, creating an average of just 0.87 non-penalty xGF across their four games.
It is worth noting too, that Newcastle have had a kind schedule so far, playing only one team that finished the 19/20 season in the top nine of the Premier League.
Manchester United are seemingly in turmoil after a shocking start to the season, losing both home matches so far by an aggregate score of 9-2.
Their performance against Tottenham last time out in the 6-1 loss was embarrassing, as Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side conceded chance after chance (3.71 xGA) while offering little to no threat in attack (0.19 non-pen xGF).
United have been second best in all three of their league games so far, meaning they sit 19th in our xG table, with their process simply horrendous – albeit with a small sample (1.40 xGF, 2.83 xGA per game).
I guess the most worrying thig about all of these numbers is that they have played Crystal Palace, Brighton and a home game against Tottenham – far from the most difficult schedule thus far.
You would hope that Solskjaer does something about those defensive issues, tightening United up ahead of this trip, so I am happy to side with the Under 2.5 at even money.
Sheff Utd v Fulham – Under 2.5 Goals @ 8/13
- Sunday, 12.00
A battle between two teams yet to pick up a point this term, though one team has much more reason to be optimistic.
Sheffield United were involved in a dull encounter at the Emirates last time out but did concede just six shots equating to 0.54 xGA in what was a good defensive display. That followed an undeserved loss at home to Leeds (xG: SHU 1.71 – 1.32 LEE).
Interestingly, Fulham have played the exact same schedule as Sheff Utd so far, so we can compare performances, and unfortunately for the Cottagers, they come out comfortably second best.
They have allowed an average of 1.80 xGA per game compared to the 1.20 xGA per game of the Blades, with both sides generating 0.98 xGF per game.
That last point could be key in this game, the fact that neither of these teams have been any good in attack so far, and that could be a key factor in this match that should be a cagey affair. Under 2.5 looks a good bet in this one.
Spurs v West Ham – Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/7
- Sunday, 16.30
Tottenham come into this one a massive high following a crushing victory over Manchester United, a fully deserved 6-1 thrashing in which they looked impressive (xG: MUN 0.99 – 3.71 TOT).
That was the second straight game in which Spurs had racked up over 3.0 xG, having done so against Newcastle in a game they deserve to win (xG: TOT 3.49 – 1.07 NEW).
The signs are extremely promising for Jose Mourinho’s side, who look to have found a nice rhythm, maybe thanks to the crazy schedule allowing them to play into match fitness following a strange summer.
West Ham have been extremely impressive also so far this season and are unfortunate to only have six points on the board at this stage. Based on our xG table, only Everton, Tottenham and Liverpool have been better than the Hammers in 20/21.
They thrashed both Wolves (4-0) and Leicester (3-0) after an undeserved loss at Arsenal (xG: ARS 1.33 – 2.32 ARS), and are seemingly creating chances at will at the moment.
David Moyes’ side have averaged 2.05 xGF per game so far this season, and against some tough teams, so they should be able to cause Spurs problems in this one.
If these two teams continue playing the way they were before the international break then we could be in for a treat, and I think Over 2.5 goals is highly likely.
Leeds v Wolves – Under 2.5 Goals @ 4/6
- Monday, 20.00
Leeds have made a dream start to their Premier League campaign, picking up seven points from four games, including an impressive performance against Manchester City last time out.
That game against City was one in which Marcelo Bielsa’s side deserved to win according to expected goals (xG: LEE 2.71 – 1.45 MCI), and raises the bar of what we will be expecting from them.
Prior to that match though, they had struggled to create good scoring chances, something that Bielsa himself eluded to in press conferences, averaging just 0.76 xGF per game in their opening three matches. It will be interesting to see which Leeds turns up here against a stubborn defensive side.
Wolves got a trademark 1-0 win in their last Premier League game, beating Fulham in deserved fashion to put their 4-0 thrashing at West Ham to the back of their mind.
That performance at the London Stadium was so out of character for Nuno’s side, and I expect them to get back to their solid best after this international break.
Let’s not forget that this Wolves side were the second-best defensive team in the Premier League last season, allowing an average of 1.08 xGA per game.
I see this being a tight game of few chances between two strong sides, so the Under 2.5 goals makes plenty of appeal.
- The 5-fold accumulator pays around 14/1 with Sky Bet at time of writing
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