Swansea and Cardiff meet in a South Wales derby at midday on Sunday, with neither in good form. Joe Townsend has previewed the game, picking out two best bets.
Football betting tips: Championship
1.5pts Both teams to score 'NO' at 9/10 (Bet Victor)
1pt Draw at 23/10 (General)
0.5pt No goalscorer at 13/2 (bet365)
Following two decades of sparse meetings, just five in fact, the South Wales derby is once again a regular fixture, with Swansea and Cardiff each occupying a place in the Sky Bet Championship for a third successive season.
After you’ve read this preview, though, you’ll probably be hoping we don’t see them meet again for quite some time.
Not atypical for a local derby, all four contests since 2019 have been low-scoring. None have seen both teams score, and only once has the net been found on more than one occasion.
Kick-off time: 12:00 BST, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Swansea 29/20 | Draw 21/10 | Cardiff 2/1
The midday Sunday kick-off will do nothing to encourage a goalfest either, which immediately leads us to our first selection without the need to even factor in any 2021/22 context.
Then consider that Swansea and Cardiff have scored a respective nine and 12 goals after 11 league games of the season, and the 9/10 about BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE ‘NO’ is worth taking.
It's been a winner in five of the Swans' last seven fixtures in all competitions, and in four of Cardiff's previous five.
Hard to get either team onside
From a Swansea perspective, the stats only get better (or worse) when it comes to opposing goals.
Just one goal has been scored in total across their past three home matches, and three of their five Championship fixtures at the Liberty this term have ended 0-0.
They seem to be taking a while to find their feet with Russell Martin at the helm, drawing five (45%) of their league matches under the former MK Dons boss, and currently sitting 19th in the table.
On the other side of the divide Mick McCarthy isn’t exactly getting a tune out of Cardiff either, who are a place lower in 20th.
The Bluebirds have lost five straight matches, scoring just once and conceding 12 times.
But there were signs of encouragement at both ends of the pitch against Reading last time out, a match they dominated in terms of Expected Goals (xG: CAR 2.04-0.09 REA) but somehow lost 1-0.
McCarthy’s men will surely build on that solidity against their rivals, which only adds to the feeling that everything in this fixture points towards a goalless draw, which is priced at 7/1 across the board.
Instead though, backing NO GOALSCORER at the slightly shorter price of 13/2 is recommended, as this allows for own-goals to be scored, and our bet will still be credited as a winner.
While this is worth taking to small stakes, the general offering of 23/10 for the DRAW does appeal too as the outside shot in the 1X2 market.
In a match tough to call and expected to be tight, all three outcomes feel similarly likely.
Anything greater than 2/1 available on the sides sharing the spoils is worth backing.
Swansea v Cardiff best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Both teams to score 'NO' at 9/10 (Bet Victor)
- 1pt Draw at 23/10 (General)
- 0.5pt No goalscorer at 13/2 (bet365)
Score prediction: Swansea 0-0 Cardiff (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1230 BST (15/10/21)
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