Joe Townsend picks out a stats-based multiple as West Ham host Arsenal in a London derby on Super Sunday, enhanced to 11/2 by Sky Bet Request-A-Bet.
EMILE SMITH ROWE has returned to the Arsenal XI of late and looks to be back to his early-season form. The England midfielder is averaging 1.93 shots per 95 minutes in the league this term and 1.11 shots on target, making 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET a nice play. Only five times in 29 games has he failed to pull the trigger.
Only Leicester (65%) and Manchester United (63%) have higher BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE hit-rates than West Ham (62%) in the Premier League in 2021/22 - at home that shoots up to 76%! That alone gets this onto the coupon, but both teams finding the net in three of Arsenal's last four also helps.
Along a similar thread to our BTTS selection, OVER 2.5 GOALS has occurred in 59% of West Ham home games and 56% of Arsenal away games. The Gunners have been making a habit of it recently too, with four of their past five going over.
Mike Dean is in charge, which in itself justifies 40+ BOOKING POINTS, but what makes this angle of extra interest is that after a season of low-card encounters, both Arsenal and West Ham have been involved in wild contests over their last four league fixtures, averaging 52.5 and 37.5 booking points respectively.
Odds correct at 1220 BST (29/04/22)
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