Given the context of this game, it’s easy to make a case for both sides. Liverpool, aggrieved at being cheated and backed by the baying Anfield crowd, get one over their rivals from seasons gone by.
Or Manchester City seize the siege mentality, as they did with 10 men at Old Trafford, lean into the newfound role as pantomime villains and keep their 100% Premier League record intact.
In terms of the betting, the goals line looks a little high, not that I’d want to build a bet around a lack of goals, nor would I try to call this game.
Usually in this column, the bets are a blend of goals, shots, fouls or whatever prop appears to be value.
In this edition, however, the advice is simple: head to the player card market.
- 1pt at 16/1 (bet365) - Super Sub available
- Other available prices: 14/1 (William Hill), 11/1 (Betfair), 21/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes), 9/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power) - check individual bookmaker terms for settlement rules e.g. Super Sub
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:30 BST
Odds correct 15:30 BST (18/09/26)
It’s going to be a powder keg of an atmosphere in Merseyside and the referee appointment is a good ’un.
Chris Kavanagh has dished out 16Y and 1R cards in three top-flight appearances this season (6-6-5) and averaged 4.2 a game last season, flashing 5+ in seven of his last 10 appearances.
Liverpool rank in the top five for fouls per game (13) and cards this season (12). Manchester City’s disciplinary record is comparatively better but this is a fixture which saw 12Y and a red in the league last season, half of the bookings going the way of the Cityzens.
At the prices available, my two tops picks would be ENZO FERNANDEZ and DOMINIK SZOBOSZLAI with the CARD DOUBLE paying out at 16/1 with bet365.
Fernandez has committed six fouls in his last two league appearances, picking up a caution at Old Trafford.
Szoboszlai was carded in both league appearances against City last season and has a knack of getting a bit overzealous on the big occasion.
- 0.5pt at 275/1 (bet365) - Super Sub available
- Other available prices: 193/1 (Betfair), 175/1 (Sky Bet), 166/1 (Paddy Power), 125/1 (William Hill), 80/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - check individual bookmaker terms for settlement rules e.g. Super Sub
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:30 BST
Odds correct 15:00 BST (09/10/26)
The other two picks to make up a CARD FOURFOLD at 275/1 would be VIRGIL VAN DIJK and MARC GUEHI. The pair were both cautioned in the last league meeting.
Guehi has a cards per 90 average of 0.17 which rises to 0.23 across his last four seasons.
Van Dijk has picked up 10 cards across his last three seasons (including this one), for context, he was only booked 13 times across the previous seven campaigns at Anfield.
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
