Super Sunday preview & free betting tips including Huddersfield v Manchester City
Nick Hext and Ben Coley combine to preview Sunday's trio of Premier League games, with Burnley fancied to make life hard for visitors Arsenal.
Southampton v Everton (1330 GMT, Sky Sports Main Event and Premier League)
By Nick Hext
Two of the Premier League's biggest under-achievers clash at St Mary's to get Sunday's action started.
Everton have been making more headlines than Southampton with the hunt for a new manager still dragging on at the time of writing and it's fair to say that caretaker boss David Unsworth won't be remaining in the hotseat for too long.
The Toffees were walloped 5-1 by Atalanta in the Europa League on Thursday evening and that made it just one victory in the Goodison Park club's last 11 games.
The potential for a return to winning ways at Southampton has been dented by the suspension of Oumar Niasse for diving.
Niasse has scored in both of his previous two appearances but an independent regulatory commission ruled that the striker "exaggerated the effect of a normal contact to deceive the referee" when tangling with Scott Dann in last weekend's 2-2 draw at Crystal Palace.
I expect the lively Dominic Calvert-Lewin to take Niasse's place but it will be tough to make as big an impact as one of the few impressive performers in Everton's miserable campaign.
Southampton are only one point better off than Everton in the scrap towards the bottom of the standings and just can't be trusted as odds-on favourites, even with home advantage.
I have a feeling that Saints will just about get over the line but the price is one to avoid if looking to add Mauricio Pellegrino's team to a Sunday acca, and the way to profit out of this game is by going low on goals.
Six of Southampton's eight home matches this season have come in at under the 2.5 mark so it's no surprise that the bookies have it heavily odds-on that this clash features fewer than three.
I'm instead going to take a bigger price and back this to be the third match in a row at St Mary’s that sees the opening goal scored after the 71st minute.
The openers in Saints' 1-0 win over West Brom and 1-0 defeat against Burnley both came in the final 10 minutes of those respective games. However, I'll give myself a few more options by splitting stakes on the first goal between 71 and 80 minutes as well as 81 minutes and full-time, with both available at 18/1 meaning it's 17/2 either/or.
Everton will be out to keep it tight after their Europa League embarrassment and Southampton have only managed to score in the first half of one of their last seven contests. It will be tight and I expect the chances to arrive in the latter stages of a game the hosts might just edge.
Prediction: Southampton 1-0 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)
Burnley v Arsenal (1400 GMT)
By Ben Coley
Arsenal return to domestic duty on the back of Thursday’s 1-0 defeat in Cologne against in-form Burnley, who are seeking to win four Premier League games in succession for the very first time.
The hosts were desperately unlucky to lose this fixture a year ago, Laurent Koscielny’s 90th-minute goal breaking all kinds of rules, and have been one of the lower-down-the-table sides capable of holding their own against the Gunners for some time. Clearly, Sean Dyche has a lot to do with this and he’ll relish the prospect of pitting his wits against Arsene Wenger for the first time since January, when Arsenal were again fortunate, last-gasp winners, this time at the Emirates.
So far, there’s little evidence to suggest the Europa League has had a detrimental effect on the visitors. They thumped Everton 5-2 after a trip to Belgrade, drew 0-0 with Chelsea following their first clash with Cologne, beat Brighton 2-0 and lost 3-1 at Manchester City, sporadically matching the champions elect. In other words, the most likely outcome has occurred in three of their four post-Thursday games; in the other, Arsenal got more than had been expected.
Still, 4/7 looks plenty short considering that Burnley’s home record remains exceptional, their sole defeat this season coming way back in August when perhaps a degree of complacency had found its way in just days after their sensational victory over the champions on the opening day of the season. They’ve not conceded since making life harder for City than most have managed a month ago and in their other six Premier League games since September’s EFL Cup clash with Leeds, only West Ham’s Michail Antonio has managed to force one past the impressive Nick Pope.
It’s fair to say that the addition of context (they’ve faced a string of poor, low-on-confidence sides during this run) does undermine the bare numbers somewhat, but the impression is they’re exactly the sort of cohesive unit Arsenal struggle against. In the post-Europa games referenced, some of Arsenal’s least impressive football came when faced with the received-and-understood challenge of Brighton, who surely look to Burnley as they shape their own top-flight existence. Away from the sanctuary of the Emirates, it’s far from guaranteed that Arsenal's perseverance will pay off.
In a nutshell, then, 5/1 about Burnley is too big and should be taken. While their recent form has coincided with a kind fixture list, let us not forget that they’ve beaten Chelsea and held both Tottenham and Liverpool to draws, all three of these games having taken place away from Fortress Turf Moor. Arsenal will have to be close to the high levels they achieved against Spurs last Saturday to make this the stress-free Sunday the odds suggest it should be.
Prediction: Burnley 2-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 18/1)
Huddersfield v Manchester City (1600 GMT, Sky Sports Main Event and Premier League)
By Nick Hext
History awaits for table-toppers Manchester City as they make the short trip across the Pennines to face out-of-form Huddersfield.
City are out to claim their 11th away win in a row and that would be a record for any English top-flight club. Victory would also take Pep Guardiola's side to 37 points and that would be the best tally from any club after 13 games in the Premier League era.
I fully expect the visitors to get the victory they need but that isn't a shocking judgement as they are priced up at a best price of 1/5 to secure three points.
The case for an 18/1 Huddersfield shock comes from their 2-1 victory against Manchester United just over a month ago.
However, the Terriers have also lost 4-0 to Tottenham on their own turf so a hustle and bustle approach can also be picked off with ease by the Premier League's top sides.
Boss David Wagner was asked about the contrasting results in the build-up to facing City.
"In both games we were confident, in both games we followed out game plan. In one game it worked, in the other game it didn't work," he said.
"This is what I expect from ourselves: that we will be brave again, that we will be confident again, that we take energy from the stand into our game and follow our idea and hopefully our idea is a good one."
That should mean plenty of space for City to operate. They've already won 6-0 on the road at Watford this season and the Hornets are a much better side than Huddersfield, who have won two of their last 11 matches after a superb start.
I don't think it will be as heavy a defeat as that for the Terriers but they will have to be wary if City take an early lead.
Guardiola's side have won 2-0 and 1-0 in their last couple of games against Feyenoord and Leicester respectively. The bookies all go odds-on that the visitors win to nil again at the John Smith's Stadium and that's my tempting option for a bet at a short price.
Huddersfield have only scored in two of their last eight games and that should help a City defence now missing Jon Stones as well as Benjamin Mendy.
Prediction: Huddersfield 0-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)
Recommended bets: Sunday Premier League
1pt first goal in Southampton v Everton to be scored between 71 and 80 minutes at 18/1
1pt first goal in Southampton v Everton to be scored between 81 minutes and full-time 18/1
1pt Burnley to beat Arsenal at 5/1
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Posted at 1640 GMT on 25/11/17.
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