Super 6 predictions and correct score tips: Unconvincing United, again
For every round of Super 6, Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ) uses expected goals (xG) data to assess the match-ups and make his correct score predictions.
Tom did an excellent job filling in for me in midweek, landing three correct scores on his way to a 17 point haul.
This is the final round of Super 6 fixtures before yet another international break, and the slate looks tricky.
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Round 18 predictions
- Arsenal 4-0 Burnley
- Man Utd 2-1 Luton
- C Palace 1-1 Everton
- Bournemouth 1-2 Newcastle
- West Ham 1-2 N Forest
- Chelsea 0-2 Man City
City too good
- Chelsea vs Manchester City
- Sky Sports: Sunday, 16:30 GMT
Chelsea's 4-1 win over Tottenham is a 'pinch of salt' result for me, with so many caveats to the result and scoreline due to the happenings in the game. What we can rely upon with the Blues though, is their shocking Premier League home form.
They have won just three and lost eight of their 18 league games at Stamford Bridge this calendar year, with the victories coming against relegated Leeds, newly-promoted Luton and a Palace side on the verge of sacking Patrick Vieira.
It doesn't help that this weekend, the reigning champions and current league leaders are in town. Pep Guardiola's side have been exceptional so far this season, especially at the back, where they have allowed a league-low 0.71 xGA per game. They can shut Chelsea out.
Score prediction: Chelsea 0-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
United unconvincing, again
- Manchester United vs Luton
- Saturday, 15:00 GMT
Could this be Erik ten Hag's last game as Manchester United manager? Possibly. Defeat at home by a Luton side heavily favoured to finish bottom of the league this season would be the upset of the season far. It wouldn't come as a surprise though, given what we have witnessed from the Red Devils this term.
Narrow one-goal wins over Wolves, Nottingham Forest, Burnley, Sheffield United and Fulham highlight the current level of Ten Hag's men - they are no more than mediocre. Luton fit into that same category of team, and a similar result can be expected here.
After all, despite the creative issues United have had this term, they are facing a team who have shipped 3.25 xGA per game away from home this season. The Hatters can get a famous goal at Old Trafford though, with Rob Edwards' side only marginally behind their hosts for xGF per game this season (Luton - 1.39, Man Utd - 1.43).
Score prediction: Manchester United 2-1 Luton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Easy at the Emirates
- Arsenal vs Burnley
- Saturday, 15:00 GMT
This should be a one-sided game and a one-sided scoreline. Arsenal tend to make light-work of poor teams at the Emirates, last season winning nine of 10 against teams in the bottom half, winning by at least two goals in eight of those and scoring an average of 3.8 goals per game.
They have already hammered Burnley's fellow promoted team Sheffield United 5-0 this season, and given the Clarets own shocking results against the better sides this term - losing all seven matches against teams who finished in the top half last season, conceding 3.0 goals per game - this could be a thumping.
Score prediction: Arsenal 4-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Newcastle too good
- Bournemouth vs Newcastle
- Sky Sports: Saturday, 17:30 GMT
Bournemouth have defensive issues, and they show no signs of tightening up. Granted, not a lot can be taken from their 6-1 thrashing at the Etihad last weekend, but overall this season the Cherries have ranked the third worst defence in the league according to xGA per game (2.41) - ahead of only Luton (2.53) and Sheffield United (2.60).
Newcastle's squad is stretched thin at the minute with injuries and suspensions, and while their away form has been patchy this term (W1, D2, L2), they continue to create chances at a high rate. Only Liverpool (2.44) have mustered more xGF per game than Eddie Howe's men (2.36), while at the other end, only City have conceded fewer xGA per game than the Magpies (0.94).
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-2 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
All-square at Selhurst
- Crystal Palace vs Everton
- Saturday, 15:00 GMT
This was one of the tougher games to decipher this weekend, with signs of improvement from both sides. Palace at home are always a tricky proposition, but what has become obvious is just how tough they are break down at Selhurst, having allowed just 1.22 xGA per game this term.
Everton have won two of their five away games this season, but have struggled to create when travelling compared to at Goodison, averaging just 1.36 xGF per away game. This could be a very tightly contested affair with few goals.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Forest to upset Hammers
- West Ham vs Nottingham Forest
- Sky Sports: Sunday, 14:00 GMT
These two teams want to play in the same fashion - neither really wants to dominate possession. That makes for an interesting encounter on Sunday, with West Ham perhaps leggy after a much-needed win in the Europa League on Thursday.
The Hammers have so far struggled with two games a week this season. They have lost three, drawn one and won one after a midweek UEL or Carabao Cup game, their only win against beleaguered Sheffield United.
Fresh from a week off and high after a victory over high-flying Aston Villa, Steve Cooper's side appear to have a great opportunity to get another win under their belts here, especially given their improved road performances, only losing narrowly to Arsenal, Manchester United and Manchester City, beating Chelsea and drawing with Crystal Palace - their only heavy defeat coming at Liverpool.
Score prediction: West Ham 1-2 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
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